Kelce vs. Ertz: Perception vs Value

Mo Brewington Posted On August 17, 2015

kelceertz

This is an exercise in perception. Call up your Fantasy buddies and ask them, “Who are the Top 3 tight ends for 2015?” Naturally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham will jump out of their mouths as #1 and #2. The TE3 may be open for debate, but many will tell you without hesitation, it’s Travis Kelce, the third year Chief who broke out for 862 yards on 67 receptions in 2014, scoring five touchdowns in the process.

While Kelce was busy introducing himself to the Fantasy World last year, Zach Ertz was busy disappointing it. The preseason hype took on a life of it’s own, as Ertz was projected to breakout and post TE1 numbers.

It never happened.

Ertz languished behind Brent Celek for a second straight season because he struggled to be an effective blocker, perhaps Celek’s greatest strength. But while Ertz lags behind the veteran in the trenches, he’s dominated him in the passing game. Ertz has 44 more targets than Celek since entering the league in 2013, despite being on the field for 623 fewer snaps over those two years.

The Eagles enter 2015 with major questions on the offensive line. And judging by the acquisitions of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, they intend to be a heavily run based offense. It’s fair to wonder if Ertz will again have his production capped by Celek, as Philly looks to dominate in the trenches with the veteran tight end playing a major role in the blocking scheme while Ertz watches from the sidelines.

I’ve heard experts reassure fantasy owners who miss out on Gronk and Graham to have no fear selecting Kelce as early as round three. Meanwhile, Ertz is being viewed as somewhat of a risk. Those who over-invested in 2014 may have lingering doubts. Many feel the Eagles have too many other receiving options for Ertz to garner enough opportunity to be a top five tight end.

I don’t buy it.

When you really look at the big picture, it’s not difficult to see how Zach Ertz can be a major component of the Eagles passing attack, and scoring threat in the red zone. And when all’s said and done, I believe Zach Ertz and his seventh round ADP represent a much better draft value than over paying for Travis Kelce in round three, where you should be stacking up running backs and wide receivers.

Let’s find out why…

2014 Statistics

TRAVIS KELCE

6’5″ 260 lbs. Drafted 2013- #63 overall in the 3rd round

688 snaps 862 yards                            503 yac
87 targets                           5 touchdowns                    4 fumbles
67 catches                        4 drops                               17 missed tackles
77% catch rate

ZACH ERTZ

6’5″ 250 lbs. Drafted 2013 – #35 overall in the 2nd round

603 snaps 702 yards 230 yac
89 targets 3 touchdowns 1 fumble
58 catches 2 drops 4 missed tackles
65% catch rate

With a similar number of targets, Kelce outpaced Ertz in catches, touchdowns and overall yardage. The only glaring statistical advantages came in yards after the catch and missed tackles – proof that Kelce is a gifted play maker at the tight end position and a major threat from any area of the field. But when comparing how these two make their yardage, it should be noted their respective teams operate under two contrasting philosophies in regard to the passing game.

The Chiefs, with quarterback Alex Smith, focused their passing attack underneath. Kelce did most of his damage in the middle of the field, catching 30 passes between the hashmarks, within 0-9 yards of the line of scrimmage. He amassed 428 of his 862 total yards on throws of nine yards or less, a shade under 50% of his total output. Catching half of his receptions virtually inside the box makes gaining yards after the catch absolutely critical to Kelce’s final yardage total.

Meanwhile, Ertz did most of his work downfield, accumulating 412 of his 702 yards on throws at least ten yards beyond the line of scrimmage, roughly 59% of his total yardage. So while Ertz may not be the creator Kelce is running with the football, his receptions go for “Chunk Yardage,” and give him a chance to have some very big games as he earns more opportunities.

In 2014, Kelce was the best receiving option on the Kansas City roster. He was second in targets to Dwayne Bowe, but led the team in every other major receiving category. Ertz on the other hand, was fourth in the Philly pecking order for targets, but third in all other receiving stats. He trailed only Jordan Matthews and the now departed Jeremy Maclin, who leaves behind his 143 targets with the Eagles in 2014 to join Kelce with the Chiefs. Maclin gives K.C. a more dynamic compliment to Kelce than 30 year old Bowe, now with the Browns. However I don’t feel he will eat into Kelce’s production. In fact, he may help open things up if Smith is willing to test the high side of the route tree and force teams to defend the entire field.

The impact of Maclin’s departure will have a positive impact on Ertz’s outlook for 2015. The 143 targets that went to Maclin last year will be redistributed. Some will likely become run plays, while a good portion go to rookie Nelson Agholor. But Ertz will without a doubt see an uptick in targets. He’ll have chances to line up in the slot as Chip Kelly looks to exploit mismatches all over the field. Ertz could be a major beneficiary of defenses preoccupation with Philly’s duo of power backs. Defenders over-committing to stop the run should allow him to make plays downfield with even greater ease.

The quarterback play in Philly is also likely to improve from 2014, whether the starter is Sam Bradford (a more talented thrower than any on the Philly roster last season) or Mark Sanchez, now with a year of familiarity in Kelly’s system under his belt. The 89 targets Ertz tallied last season will surely climb above 100, placing him among the four to five most targeted tight ends in football. It’s highly probable he ends up the 2nd most targeted Eagle behind Jordan Matthews, and go to receiver in the red zone. Predictions of his breakout season came a year too early. The young tight end is now better equipped, both physically and mentally, to take his game to the next level.

Chip Kelly’s system provides more opportunities to move the ball and score points than Andy Reid’s, whose schemes tend to become predictable, especially with a quarterback as limited as Smith. Kelce will not be sneaking up on anyone this season. Defenses will have a gameplan for him and he will begin to receive attention from better cover linebackers and safeties. He as well will need to elevate his game to continue his growth.

This article is not an attempt to prove Zach Ertz is a better tight end than Travis Kelce. The facts show Kelce has been the more productive, more dynamic player to this point in their brief careers. But when considering all the factors and projecting 2015 statistics for each player, I see no reason Kelce should be ranked tremendously higher than Ertz. For owners to draft Kelce in the third round at his current ADP, when Ertz will last through the seventh round of many drafts and give you similar production, is a strategic mistake. Advantages are won in fantasy by allowing your opponents to make those mistakes, while you make sound decisions, improving your team while maximizing value in the process. I believe overpaying for Kelce, whose advantage over Ertz is likely slim to none when the final points are tallied, is just that type of mistake.

What do you think? Would you rather have Kelce in the third round or Ertz in the seventh? Let us know in the comments below.

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