Instant Analysis: Take One Step Mack

Eric Breeze

mackOne of most intriguing stories this offseason in the IDP world revolves camp buzz that second year standout linebacker Khalil Mack will be moving to full time defensive end.

Regardless what the stats say, Mack was phenomenal his rookie year in every aspect.  He already has shown to have elite edge setting ability against the run while also being an explosive pass rusher.  His rookie year was a mixture of playing strongside linebacker (SAM) in the Raiders base defense while putting his hand in the ground as a DE for sub-packages and getting after the passer.  On passing plays he dropped into coverage only 15% of the time so even before this news we all knew we had a Von Miller type player in Oakland.  The problem with a Von clone for IDP pursposes is he will be designated as linebacker instead of a defensive end aka the shallowest and most valuable position on the defensive side for fantasy purposes.  Per camp reports, all signs point to him gaining defensive end eligibility for the 2015 season but actions speak louder than words so let’s dive into last night’s first preseason game.

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Let’s get this out of the way early.  There is nobody out there that wants Khalil Mack to be a IDP defensive end more than I do but we need to be cautious at this stage to not overreact and shell out the farm to acquire him at elite defensive end prices.  My advice for you after watching last night’s game is SLOW DOWN.  Per twitter all reports were Mack was playing on the line so I was shocked to see what I did this morning when I turned on the film.  The Raiders sent out their first team defense the entire first two drives which resulted in 12 total plays.  Khalil Mack played like a defensive end as he did not drop into coverage once.  All snaps consisted of rushing the passer or setting the edge against the run.  This is exactly what I wanted to see.

So what’s the problem? Of the 12 snaps, nine of them were from base formation and I cannot classify without a reasonable doubt that he played defensive end on any of those plays.  Oakland ran a 3-4 defense with Mack standing up five of those plays and the other four plays had Mack in a defensive end 3-point stance but was out a 4-3 under alignment.  All nine plays had strong side linebacker, Ray Ray Armstrong, aligned on the line of scrimmage opposite of Mack.  To some this is a 4-3 and to others this may still be considered a 3-4 formation. While some view 2-point stance as a linebacker and 3-point stance as a defensive end this is not always entirely true. Both Jerry Hughes and Chandler Jones in the past have played a majority of their traditional 4-3 lineman snaps out of the 2-point stance.  The remaining three plays not accounted for last night were run out of nickel and dime formations which all had Mack lined up as a traditional defensive end which is exactly what the case was last year.  So to put it plain and simple, I have no idea what Mack will be classified as week 1.  The IDP designations on MyFantasyLeague.com are determined by depth charts made by Rotoworld who do a great job of not overreacting to camp buzz before switching player position designations which is why Mack is still listed as a linebacker as I type this.

One big note is Sio Moore is still recovering from off-season hip surgery so he did not play in last night’s game.  It is entirely possible that with a healthy Moore, the Raiders run a traditional 4-3 with Mack on the line but this is all speculation at this point.  As sad as it makes me to admit this, I’m treating Khalil Mack as a LB in IDP until I hear otherwise.  If you can buy this versatile pass rusher at fair linebacker prices I would suggest to do so without hesitation but if you have to pay a premium to acquire him due to this DE camp buzz I would look elsewhere to fill your defensive end needs.  I’ll be monitoring this issue closely so expect another follow up article in the next few weeks after more preseason action and the hopeful return of one of my favorite linebackers Sio Moore.

UPDATE: Through three preseason games, including the all important “dress rehearsal,” nothing has changed with the Oakland defensive alignment.  Khalil Mack continues to play 3-4 outside linebacker in base and only defensive end in subpackages. There are also rumors indicating Sio Moore is in the coach’s doghouse, which makes sense given Moore played ten special teams snap last week without a single defensive snap, so a change to a more traditional 4-3 is not going to happen.  Treat Mack as a linebacker in all IDP leagues on myfantasyleague.com. Other sites are less strict and accurate of their IDP position designations so approach with a case by case basis.  The most important take away is Mack is still playing linebacker and it would be wise to treat him in IDP leagues as such.

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