Rockin’ to the Oldies
Most fantasy football championships are won and lost at the running back position. Quite simply, it’s a case of the haves and have-nots. If you’re lucky enough to have one (or more) of the elite runners who have maintained their spot atop the fantasy rankings over the last few years, you definitely know what I’m talking about. Without serviceable runners, you’re dead in the water.
What happens when these running backs reach that dreaded age threshold, though? Historically, running backs start a steep decline once they turn 28 years old. So, why is the current dynasty ADP data littered with running backs 27 and over? The truth is, there aren’t a lot of running backs between the ages of 24 and 26 who have stepped up and players like Fred Jackson, Frank Gore and Darren Sproles have proved turning 30 years old isn’t the death sentence it once was.
Amongst the 84 running backs drafted in the July mocks, 23 (28.75%) are at least 27 years old. Of the top 24 running backs, eight (33.33%) are at least 27 years old. If you’re trying to build a dynasty squad with longevity, conventional wisdom says to stay away from these runners with their short term windows. If you want to be competitive from day one, you’re more than likely going to need to lean on at least one of these backs unless you ignored the elite young wide receivers and landed one of the really young studs like Le’Veon Bell or Eddie Lacy.
Personally, I view running backs in two to three year windows and believe every runner is valuable in the right context. With the annual volatility of the running back position, I don’t mind “overpaying” for the likes of Gore, Arian Foster or Marshawn Lynch – these players will be on a lot of 2015-2016 championship fantasy squads. After all, winning is why we play this game, isn’t it? These “older” running backs get pushed down the ADP rankings in startups in favor of the new kids in town, but how many times have we drafted a promising rookie or player coming off an impressive first year only to see them faceplant and settle into the low RB2 or flex territories? Players like Doug Martin, Daniel Thomas, Bishop Sankey and Montee Ball immediately pop into my head. So, why not pounce on these veterans early and worry about restocking your running back stable through the waiver wire or in next year’s rookie draft? Lets look at the players 27 years or older within the top 24 of July’s running back ADP to discuss their 2015 outlook.
Jamaal Charles, RB KC
Week one age: 28 years old, RB5, ADP 24.67
Charles finished 2014 as the PPR RB7 with 256.4 total points and is just one year removed from a remarkable 382 point fantasy season. Andy Reid knows how to produce elite fantasy running backs and this team is built to rely heavily on Charles. Ironically, for all of Alex Smith’s shortcomings as a catalyst for wide receivers, his willingness to check down to routes out of the backfield makes for a dream come true for running backs.
Even though the Chiefs appear to have Charles’ heir apparent in Knile Davis on the roster, don’t expect anything close to a committee attack. Davis may get 8-10 touches per game to give Charles a breather but the Chiefs will still live and die on the legs of Jamaal.
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DeMarco Murray, RB PHI
Week one age: 27 years old, RB6, ADP 27.67
Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Murray had an amazing 2014 season on his way to career highs across the board with 1,845 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns and 57 receptions for another 416 yards. He also touched the ball an incredible 450 times in the regular season alone, easily besting his prior career high by 180 touches. To put it into perspective, he touched the ball 196 times in 2012 and 189 times in 2011. He basically touched the ball as many times last year as he did in his two best professional seasons prior. You have to ask yourself if you believe in “the Curse of 370” which says any running back that eclipses 370 carries in a season breaks down the following season. You can read about it in the link above.
So, how did the Cowboys reward their record breaking bell cow? By letting him leave in free agency and signing with the division rival Philadelphia Eagles. He leaves a team where he received 77% of the team’s 508 carries in 2014 to a team who also added Ryan Mathews and already has Sproles. There’s little doubt Murray will be the player who gets the lion’s share of carries, but I don’t believe he’ll get the anywhere near the volume he received last year. Chip Kelly also seemed to pull a name from a hat when the team approached the goal line last year. LeSean McCoy had five touchdowns, Sproles had six and even Chris Polk had four.
In my opinion, people are chasing last year’s stats and Murray represents the prototypical sell high dynasty asset. Even if he can catch lightning in a bottle and do what he did last year that amount of touches over a two year span will only increase his long term durability concerns. His value will never be higher than it is right now.
LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
Week one age: 27 years old, RB8, ADP 31.50
You know you’re an elite player in this league when 1,319 yards rushing, five touchdowns and 38 receptions for 155 yards is considered a “bad year.” Truth is, McCoy was still a RB1 last year, finishing as the RB12 in PPR leagues. The problem was Chip Kelly decided to use a healthy dose of Darren Sproles on third downs and McCoy finished with the lowest reception total of his career and failed to record a receiving touchdown for the first time since his rookie year. Touchdowns are always a bit fluky from season-to-season, but McCoy was always an elite option because he was a lock for 60 catches.
Now a Buffalo Bill, McCoy finds himself in a much different offense led by Greg Roman, formerly of the San Francisco 49ers. Roman doesn’t have a great history of throwing to his running backs (Gore hasn’t topped 36 receptions in a season since 2010). Rex Ryan’s philosophy isn’t a whole lot different than Roman’s former boss – run the ball, play great defense and get out with a win. McCoy should see plenty of volume as the centerpiece of the offense because the team will do its best to hide their ineffective quarterback, whoever “wins” that battle. I think last year’s stats are what we should expect from McCoy again this year.
Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
Week one age: 30 years old, RB9, ADP 35.67
I don’t think there will be much gray area when it comes to Peterson. He’s either going to tear the league apart or age, combined with sitting out a year, will cause him to go down with a leg injury of some sort. I’m willing to risk it on any squad close to a championship. This Vikings team is a lot better than the one he was suspended from last season. Teddy Bridgewater progressed nicely last year, Charles Johnson emerged as a viable outside receiver in Norv Turner’s offense, the team added Mike Wallace and has Kyle Rudolph healthy for the time being.
Recent photos of Peterson make it look like he spent his entire year away from the game in a weight room training to be an Avenger. He’s the odds on favorite to finish the season atop the fantasy running back rankings. Look for him to flirt with career highs in receptions (43) this year as well. Something along the lines of 1,300 yards rushing, 60 receptions for 400 yards and 10-12 total touchdowns is what I consider his floor.
Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
Week one age: 29 years old, RB11, ADP 37.17
If Lynch wouldn’t always spend the offseason talking about how close he is to retirement he’d probably quite a few spots higher. He has scored 56 total touchdowns and rushed for an incredible 5,357 yards over the last four years. He plays for a coach who believes in the ground and pound offense and playing lights out defense. Along with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks led the league in rushing last year without any sort of a viable receiving threat. Now they have Jimmy Graham to clear out the middle of the field, so if Lynch hits the second level, good luck bringing him down.
Lynch finished as the PPR RB4 last year and shouldn’t have any problem repeating it. 1,300 rushing yards and 13-14 touchdowns with his 35 receptions and 300 yards can be expected for Beast Mode.
Matt Forte, RB CHI
Week one age: 29 years old, RB13, ADP 45.67
Even though he finished the year as the RB3, the red flags were starting to show with Forte but were masked by his record-setting 102 receptions. His 3.90 yards per carry were the lowest since 2009 and he had an insane 130 targets out of the backfield – that was with Marc Trestman who is no longer with the team. Calling the plays now is former Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase. His 2014 Broncos had a total of 64 catches by running backs out of a total of 607 pass attempts, or 10.54%. Forte alone caught 18% of the Bears’ pass attempts. A fairly significant decline is inevitable, in my opinion.
Of all the running backs on this list, I believe Forte is the one runner I would most try to move prior to training camp. Once the beat writers start writing about the way this offense looks, it may be difficult to get decent compensation. At the end of the year, I would surprised to see his rushing totals over 1,000 yards. He’s never been a big touchdown scorer, so his normal six to eight can be expected. There’s no way he’s coming anywhere close to his 102 receptions from last year. In fact, I would be surprised if he catches half of that for around 450 yards.
Arian Foster, RB HOU
Week one age: 29 years old, RB17 ADP 52.17
Foster is one of the best values in all of dynasty. He’s locked into the feature back role and coming off an RB5 finish in PPR leagues with 1,246 rushing yards, eight touchdowns and 38 receptions for 327 yards and five more scores in 13 games. In every game he received 20+ carries he rushed for at least 95 yards. He also had at least ten PPR points in every contest.
Foster is definitely one of the few running backs you feel you have to handcuff. Since he took over as Houston’s feature back in 2010, he’s played 16 games just twice. He seems to have annual hamstring and groin issues, but he’s as effective as anyone in the league on a per game basis. Assuming he can stay healthy for all 16 games, I expect him to finish as a top five running back with something close to 1,400 yards rushing, 45+ receptions for 400 receiving yards and 12+ total touchdowns as the centerpiece of the Texans offense.
C.J. Spiller, RB NO
Week one age: 28 years old, RB24, ADP 70.83
It’s not a secret C.J. Spiller has been criminally misused during the majority of his career in Buffalo. Constantly fighting the ageless Fred Jackson for snaps, Spiller nearly matched his career low in carries in 2014 with 77 rushing attempts. The Bills also made zero effort to get him the ball in space, targeting him a career low 22 times for 19 receptions, 125 yards and a score.
He now joins an offense that completed 130 passes to running backs in 2014. The top two pass catching running backs (Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet) accounted for 83 of those catches and neither are on the 2015 roster. The Saints have been trying to convince everyone under the sun they plan on committing to the run more in 2015 after trading Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks for Max Unger. Fantasy Football Twitter quickly drank the Josh Hill Kool-Aid on the assumption he would simply be the next Graham – that’s just not going to happen. The most likely beneficiary in regards Graham’s departure will be Spiller and Brandin Cooks.
I expect this backfield to be pretty close to an even split between Spiller and Mark Ingram. I think Sean Payton wants to play fast and wear down defenses with Spiller and Cooks before handing the reigns over to Ingram to grind teams into submission. Spiller isn’t going to set the world on fire rushing the ball – he’ll be lucky to break the 500 yard mark. His bread will be buttered in the passing game and it’ll be a disappointment if he finishes with less than 80 receptions and 800 yards. The touchdown projection is the real wild card as the Saints have to figure out how to replace Graham’s ten touchdowns.
In closing, if you’re serious about winning in 2015 and don’t want to pay the extreme dynasty prices of Le’Veon Bell or Eddie Lacy, kick the tires on a couple of these older, cheaper runners with the potential to finish in the top ten.
Follow me on the tweets @OlingerIDP.
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