FFPC $500 Start-up Draft Review

Ryan McDowell

luck

Editor’s Note:  We hope you’ve enjoyied our 2015 FFPC draft coverage.  The high stakes component makes for an intriguing variable and readers should appreciate these coaches paying the price to compete at this level while also giving these drafts extra attention.  The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their length of time and visibility in the space.  Since beginning their dynasty games in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity. Whereas DLF is a place you can call home for the best dynasty content to your win league, the FFPC provides the best platform to apply our content – the top competition on the planet and huge dollar purses are just an added bonus!  

Welcome to our fifth installment of our 2015 FFPC draft coverage and yet another high stakes dynasty startup draft.

DLF and the FFPC are new partners for 2015 and, as such, we’ve been covering drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” label brings with it a higher degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance.  These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet that most put a lot of work and research into each selection.  With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $500 entry fee, there’s no room for mistakes.

This review is a $500 12-team start-up draft.  Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR.  Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each.  Starting rosters are as follows:  1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST.  One note about the FFPC Dynasty format:  Each team has 20 total roster spots with one each given to kickers and defense.  At the end of each year, teams must drop four players to reach a total of 16 total players.  This makes for a relatively shallow roster with emphasis on productive players.  Just something to keep in mind as it’s different from deep dynasty formats that may see more than 30 rostered players.

While I have yet to play in a high stakes league such as this one, I do have some preconceived ideas about how this draft might play out, based on the rules and, of course, the amount of money on the line.

First, the combination of smaller rosters and a required minimum of two starting running backs puts that position at a premium, which should greatly affect draft position. I expect running backs as a whole to be drafted much higher than we typically see in our monthly ADP.

[inlinead]Secondly, the ability to keep only 14 position players in the off-season should limit the importance on younger players. It’s not ideal to draft a project type player when the expectations are low for that player in the short-term.

The small rosters also have a major impact on streaming the “onesie” positions of quarterback and tight end. I see two ways to look at this and I look forward to checking out how the owners in this league attacked those positions. With smaller rosters, believers in streaming could embrace the fact the low-end quarterbacks and tight ends can be found each week on the waiver wire, something that is likely untrue in dynasty leagues with larger rosters. This could lead to some waiting even longer than normal to fill these positions. The other end of the spectrum says that a smaller overall roster boosts the value of the true studs at each position. I expect to see both strategies on display in this draft.

Finally, with a large amount of money on the line, I expect more teams to play to “win now.” While I greatly believe in my Productive Struggle theory, it would be difficult to submit my $500 league payment with almost no hopes of seeing it return. Let’s find out if the high payouts give more value to veteran players who can make an impact in the short-term.

For this review, I’ll be listing each round’s selections along with a brief summary following each round.

If you’re ready to step up to the most serious dynasty competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games via the link or the advertisement on the DLF home page!

Let’s dive in!

Round One

1.01 Andrew Luck, QB IND
1.02 Rob Gronkowski, TE NEP
1.03 Odell Beckham, WR NYG
1.04 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
1.05 Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.06 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
1.07 Mike Evans, WR TB
1.08 Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
1.09 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
1.10 AJ Green, WR CIN
1.11 Randall Cobb, WR GB
1.12 Eddie Lacy, RB GB

It didn’t take long for one of my theories to prove true. The top two players off the board are quarterback Andrew Luck and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Those two teams can close the book on those positions for the majority of the draft now and plug away on running backs and receivers. The rest of the first round is pretty standard, as it’s dominated by young wide receivers. The increased value of running backs pushes Eddie Lacy into the back of the first round also.

Round Two

2.01 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.02 DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
2.03 TY Hilton, WR IND
2.04 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
2.05 Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
2.06 Todd Gurley. RB STL
2.07 Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
2.08 Calvin Johnson, WR DET
2.09 Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
2.10 Amari Cooper, WR OAK
2.11 Jamaal Charles, RB KC
2.12 Jordy Nelson, WR GB

This second round is also very typical of what we might see in any other type of dynasty draft, though a couple things do stand out to me. First, Lions’ receiver Calvin Johnson falls about as far as I’ve seen in many years, all the way to 2.08. The team grabbing Julio Jones and Johnson is off to a very nice start. Meanwhile, I am not seeing the discount on youth that I expected, at least not early on, as rookie Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper both come off the board in the top 24 picks.

Round Three

3.01 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
3.02 Brandin Cooks, WR NO
3.03 Melvin Gordon, RB SD
3.04 LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
3.05 CJ Anderson, RB DEN
3.06 DeMarco Murray, RB PHI
3.07 Kevin White, WR CHI
3.08 Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
3.09 Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
3.10 Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
3.11 Keenan Allen, WR SD
3.12 Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

We really see the impact of the increased running back value show in round three. While some are still opting for upside receivers, six running backs come off the board, with most of those being proven veteran contributors.

Round Four

4.01 Travis Kelce, TE KC
4.02 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
4.03 Carlos Hyde, RB SF
4.04 Matt Forte, RB CHI
4.05 TJ Yeldon, RB JAX
4.06 Allen Robinson, WR JAX
4.07 Arian Foster, RB HOU
4.08 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
4.09 Cam Newton, QB CAR
4.10 DeVante Parker, WR MIA
4.11 Lamar Miller, RB MIA
4.12 Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ

It seems the fourth round is really where the strategies are decided and we have a little bit of everything. Some are focusing on filling their lineup with the top players from each position as tight end Travis Kelce and quarterbacks Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are selected. Others are grabbing the final few highly ranked running backs. There’s also a nice blend of youth, with 5 first or second year players, and veterans, with players like Arian Foster and Matt Forte still carrying plenty of value.

Round Five

5.01 Latavius Murray, RB OAK
5.02 Zach Ertz, TE PHI
5.03 Davante Adams, WR GB
5.04 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
5.05 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
5.06 Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
5.07 Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
5.08 Greg Olsen, TE CAR
5.09 Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
5.10 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
5.11 Justin Forsett, RB BAL
5.12 Eric Ebron, TE DET

When you’re selecting players like Justin Forsett and Tevin Coleman in the fifth round, you are locked into your strategy. This is not a bad thing necessarily, but can sometimes result in reaching for a player because others don’t fit your plan. Forsett seems to be an example of a player drafted too early here, but that goes back to my expectation of seeing both veterans and running backs gaining value in this format, so that is playing out.

Round Six

6.01 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
6.02 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
6.03 Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
6.04 Michael Floyd, WR ARI
6.05 Julian Edelman, WR NE
6.06 Golden Tate, WR DET
6.07 CJ Spiller, RB NO
6.08 Mark Ingram, RB NO
6.09 Julius Thomas, TE JAX
6.10 Martellus Bennett, TE CHI
6.11 Andre Ellington, RB ARI
6.12 Joseph Randle, RB DAL

After some reaches in the past two rounds, round six offers great value, both for ageists loading up on youth and those teams hoping to make a quick profit. I understand why Giovani Bernard has lost value from a year ago, but I think his drop in value is not representative of what he’s capable of producing. I’m gladly taking him in the sixth round, especially when two starters are required.

Round Seven

7.01 DeSean Jackson, WR WAS
7.02 Mike Wallace, WR MIN
7.03 John Brown, WR ARI
7.04 Alfred Morris, RB WAS
7.05 Andre Johnson, WR IND
7.06 Matt Ryan, QB ATL
7.07 Ladarius Green, TE SD
7.08 Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
7.09 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
7.10 Devin Funchess, WR CAR
7.11 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB
7.12 Duke Johnson, RB CLE

Anytime you draft, you are likely looking back with some regrets. Not necessarily about the players you chose, but maybe when you chose them. I think this could be the case for those that grabbed Newton or Ryan Tannehill in the prior rounds when they see Matt Ryan falling to the middle of the seventh round. This is excellent value and there are still other top quarterbacks on the board. My opinion remains the same…unless you are taking a shot on Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers early in the draft, wait on quarterback.

Round Eight

8.01 Jordan Cameron, TE MIA
8.02 Doug Martin, RB TB
8.03 David Johnson, RB ARZ
8.04 Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
8.05 Peyton Manning, QB DEN
8.06 Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
8.07 Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
8.08 Frank Gore, RB IND
8.09 Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
8.10 Shane Vereen, RB NYG
8.11 Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
8.12 David Cobb, RB TEN

After seven rounds of wide receiver dominance, the tides change here in the eighth round as eight backs are picked, along with a pair of tight ends. This is the area I normally like to take my first running back, but this format proves that is a bad idea. Instead, most teams are taking a shot on largely unproven backs like rookies David Johnson, David Cobb and Jay Ajayi.

Round Nine

9.01 Joique Bell, RB DET
9.02 Jameis Winston, QB TB
9.03 Rashad Jennings, RB NYG
9.04 Cody Latimer, WR DEN
9.05 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
9.06 Donte Moncrief, WR IND
9.07 Maxx Williams, TE BAL
9.08 Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
9.09 Christine Michael, RB SEA
9.10 Tom Brady, QB NE
9.11 Charles Johnson, WR MIN
9.12 Torrey Smith, WR SF

With seven starters required, in addition to a kicker and team defense, there is a good chance the players being drafted in round nine will be counted on to start a majority of the games this season. That fact makes some of these peculiar choices. We have almost no idea what to expect from sophomore receivers Cody Latimer and Donte Moncrief, but at least they have top quarterbacks throwing them the ball.

Round Ten

10.01 Brandon LaFell, WR NE
10.02 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
10.03 Kenny Stills, WR MIA
10.04 Josh Hill, TE NO
10.05 Jason Witten, TE DAL
10.06 Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
10.07 Josh Gordon, WR CLE
10.08 Javorius Allen, RB BAL
10.09 Roddy White, WR ATL
10.10 Drew Brees, QB NO
10.11 Kendall Wright, WR TEN
10.12 Vincent Jackson, WR TB

The final round of the draft’s first half and there are still solid fantasy starters available, including quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, along with multiple wideouts.

Suspended Browns’ receiver Josh Gordon will be an interesting case for this format. He’s another player, like many young players who might not contribute in 2015, which should be greatly discounted since he won’t help any fantasy teams and could make for a difficult keep decision next off-season.

The all-important startup draft is now half over, but the latter portion of the draft can be very important as teams fill out their starting lineup and find some quality depth.

Here are the results of the final ten rounds of the draft.

draft

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ryan mcdowell