IDP Buy and Sell

Eric Olinger

lawrence

If there is one IDP question I get more than any other it’s, “Do you have any sleepers”? Even as someone who writes about fantasy football, it’s something I’m always interested in hearing about myself. Everyone has them. Everyone has their own way of identifying them. But I like to hear the reasoning behind it, the logic. It’s a little hard to get behind someone’s sleeper pick when it’s based on a “gut feeling.” Players can become a sleeper based on several different scenarios, coaching changes, scheme changes, departing veterans or simply because they’ve developed into a legitimate playmaker. But for every sleeper who breaks out there’s a player whose value is crashing and identifying those players are just as, if not more, important than identifying the ascending players because nobody wants to get stuck holding the bag full of poo.

So, I asked the IDP posse here at DLF the million dollar question, “Who are you buying and who are you selling before training camps open?”

BUY

Demarcus Lawrence, DE DAL

At the risk of overstating it, 4-3 defense ends are becoming more and more rare. Once highly regarded last Spring, a significant 2014 preseason injury pushed Lawrence off the radar for many. Others are skeptical with the presence of Greg Hardy and the recent drafting of Randy Gregory, but he has the fewest red flags of the group. The fact is, in limited time in 2014, Lawrence proved capable in getting to the quarterback. So far this off-season, reports are he’s shown improvement compared to his stunted rookie season. Look for a jump in 2015 for a young 4-3 end with long-term top ten DL upside. – @SteveWyremski

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Christian Jones, ILB CHI

I’m going to keep banging the Jones drum. He went undrafted in 2013 due to drug issues, but reports throughout his career thus far are that he’s working his tail off. He put on 10 pounds this offseason with the expectation of playing inside in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense. Jones is a candidate to start inside for the Bears competing with Jon Bostic, Mason Foster and Shea McClellin. It’s quite the cast of misfits, but ultimately, Jones offers the most versatility and upside of the group. He’s someone Fangio should cling to. He’s already hinted Jones could be a building block for the new look defense. – @SteveWyremski

Sean Lee, WLB DAL

When he’s on the field, Lee is among the elite linebackers in fantasy. Recently those games have been few and far between resulting in his plunge down draft boards (39th in a recent mock) and rankings (29th among DLF rankers). Despite the likelihood he will miss time, his price makes him worth the risk. – @JLFoster10 

Cameron Wake, DE MIA
I bet he was so happy to see Ndamukong Suh sign that he picked him up at the airport and maybe kissed him in the process. Wake was already a top flight defender. Now with Suh sucking up double teams in the middle it should be nothing but IDP gravy. – @BigBoardIDP

Koa Misi, MLB MIA

Cameron Wake, Oliver Vernon, Ndamukong Suh and Jordan Phillips should give offensive lines fits this season. The middle linebacker in this defense should see little second level blocks with that menacing front four. Misi graded out last year as the 12th best inside linebacker at PFF. He logged 46 tackles on roughly 500 snaps. If he stays healthy, I like his odds to flirt with 90 tackles. There is also little starting competition with the Colts table scraps, Kelvin Sheppard, sitting behind him on the depth chart. Finally, his price could not be much cheaper. He has not been drafted in latest DLF IDP mocks and according to MFL he is being drafted outside the top 81 linebackers. – @UtahEC

Michael Johnson, DE CIN

He was a colossal bust for the Buccaneers but he is back with the Bengals who he had great success with.  During those years, he lined up across from Carlos Dunlap and registered 11.5 sacks in 2012 and 41 hurries in 2013. He may never repeat those numbers but he is also free in IDP leagues right now. – @BreezeIDP

Olivier Vernon, DE MIA

It appears there’s a bit of a theme forming here with buying Dolphins defenders. One of my favorite breakout candidates is Vernon for many of the same reasons @BigBoardIDP likes Cameron Wake. Playing on that fully loaded defensive line and across from an established end like Wake will give him endless one-on-one opportunities to get to the quarterback. He’s just 24 years old and coming off a season which produced a statistical regression from 11.5 sacks in 2013 to just 6.5 in 2014. I expect Wake to have a true breakout campaign in his fourth season as a pro. – @OlingerIDP

Telvin Smith, WLB JAX

The time to buy Smith may have come and gone when news surfaced of Smith maintaining his every down role. When he took the every down role over in week 12 last year he proceeded to rack up 44 solo tackles and 20 assists. With a declining Paul Posluszny lining up across from Smith in nickel packages, the passing of the torch as the IDP to own in Jacksonville should occur this season. – @OlingerIDP

Mychal Kendricks, ILB PHI

Right now is an interesting time for Kendricks. The Eagles traded LeSean McCoy to the Bills for Kiko Alonso and seem to prefer DeMeco Ryans to Kendricks after extending his contract through 2016. This, after he ruptured his Achilles last year. Chip Kelly has shown multiple times he has no issue discarding young talent and it appears Kendricks is the next to go. Even Eagles beat writers believe he’ll be traded by week one. There are plenty of teams, like San Francisco, Atlanta or Green Bay, who could benefit from adding a 24 year old playmaking linebacker on the cheap. – @OlingerIDP

Sell

Jerod Mayo, ILB NEP

Without Mayo in 2014, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower excelled. Combine this with Mayo’s recurring injuries and the potential for him to be the odd man out in sub-packages, give me a player like Avery Williamson at comparable current market value. – @SteveWyremski

Curtis Lofton, MLB OAK

Lofton is in a similar situation to Mayo. While he signed a hefty contract with the Raiders this off-season, there’s a high likelihood he only plays two downs with Sio Moore and Malcolm Smith the favorites for sub-package snaps. Given his age, deterioration of pass coverage effectiveness and the likelihood his snap share drops, I’m avoiding or selling him wherever possible. – @SteveWyremski

Lofton has graded out negatively at PFF the last three seasons. The pinnacle of this bad play was in 2014 when he graded at a staggering -21.5, ranking him 57 of 60 inside linebackers. Lofton was recently cut by Saints but signed a hefty contract with Oakland. While the contract may look big, all the dead money is in year one. This means Raiders are not locked in long term and can cut ties with Lofton with little penalties after his first year. In the latest DLF IDP mocks, he has been taken between round 15 and round 17. In one mock, Eric Kendricks went only four picks before him. Other players taken near him were Randy Gregory, Roddy White, and Jameis Winston. I would much rather have any of those players over Lofton. He will also have to deal with the athletic rookie, Ben Heeney, nipping at his heels all year. The Lofton backers will point to the fact he is returning to a 4-3, where he excelled in 2011 with Atlanta. The truth is, Lofton has not played well in a long time and difference making talent can be had in a trade according to his ADP. – @UtahEC

Cliff Avril, DE SEA

Despite starting all 16 games last year, Avril finished 45th among defensive linemen in overall fantasy points in 2014 and 59th in points per game. Though he is only 29, it would not be surprising for his snaps to decrease as Seattle rotates its edge rushers more. – @JLFoster10

Aldon Smith, LB SF
I have a low tolerance for knuckleheads in the first place, but the mass exodus from the Niners defense makes me think Smith will be a marked man by offenses around the league, resulting in reduced numbers even if he plays a full season. – @BigBoardIDP

Rob Ninkovich, DE NE

Ninkovich is a volume player who relies on snaps to get his fantasy points.  He didn’t play well last year but never left the field so put up low DE1 numbers. A healthy Chandler Jones and addition of free agent Jabaal Sheard will change that. – @BreezeIDP

Vontaze Burfict, MLB CIN

Even though Burfict was once in the conversation for the dynasty LB1, he is now damaged goods and faces a big uphill battle to approach pre-injury form. After undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee, Burfict faces long odds of being ready for week one. As we’ve seen in the past, rushing back from surgeries like this often lead to collateral damage injuries like ACLs, Achilles or hamstring problems as they favor the weak leg. Players like DeMeco Ryans, Thomas Davis and D’Qwell Jackson have faced similar situations in the past but it took multiple seasons to approach pre-injury form. – @OlingerIDP

Nick Fairley, DT STL

When Nick Fairley hit free agency this off-season, the odds were slim he would actually go to a defensive line more talented than the one he left in the Motor City, but that’s exactly what happened when he joined the Rams. He’ll settle into a pass rushing specialist role behind Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald between Robert Quinn and Chris Long. Without getting involved in the run game, he’ll be a dicey play in leagues that require a starting defensive tackle. I would try moving him while his name value still carries weight. – @OlingerIDP

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