Summer Sleeper: Dallas Cowboys
We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Allen Robinson or C.J. Anderson, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
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Cole Beasley, WR Dallas Cowboys – Sleeper
I am on record numerous times on numerous platforms as to how important steady, unsexy, 10 PPG wide receivers can be to a winning dynasty roster. Plug-and-play WR3/4 types you can snag at a WR6-8 price allow you to trade away depth to improve a starter elsewhere. In recent seasons players like Brian Hartline, Greg Jennings, Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd have filled such a role admirably. While Royal and Floyd remain candidates, several new players have entered this sphere of discussion, including Mr. Beasley.
The blonde coifed Beasley stands 5’8” and tips the scales at around 180 pounds. Without an invite to the combine, he logged a sub 4.5 40, posted a nice vertical (38”) and somehow put up 225 pounds 17 times on the bench press at his pro day. These numbers, and his high volume senior season at SMU, earned him a UDFA deal with the Cowboys in 2012.
That first season was completely non-descript, but by his sophomore campaign Beasley had carved out a bit of a role, tallying two touchdowns to go with 39 receptions and 368 yards receiving. A highly polished route runner with sure hands, Beasley became a Tony Romo favorite on third downs.
2014 started slowly for the receiver, but really picked up down the stretch. Over the last eight games, including playoff tilts, Beasley averaged 11 PPR points and a line of 3.5/47/.5 on nearly five targets. Extrapolated for a full season that would put him at 176 points, which is low-end WR3 production. But last year was last year. This year looks to be a bit different in Dallas.
In case you were Rip VanWinkling things the past 12 months, let me fill you in on a guy named DeMarco Murray. The former Cowboys running back logged an absolutely insane 498 touches in 2014. Over the regular season Dallas lead all other teams in running back touches by 18 (Houston was second) and tallied 52 more than the third place Saints. With Murray gone and a conglomerate staffed by the underwhelming Joseph Randle, the washed up Darren McFadden and the underused Lance Dunbar, history will not repeat itself. Due to a dominant offensive line I don’t see the Cowboys completely abandoning the run, but I very much doubt they get good enough production to once again pace the league by such a wide margin.
Fantasy football is somewhat of a guessing game. Those who do well guess better than others, sometimes because of dumb luck, but often, hopefully, due to good information, previous experience and, at least in my case, thick chest hair. With the loss of Murray and the downgrade in running back talent it brings, we are left to guess on how things will break down. After running my fingers through my chest-forest during several hours of prognostication, I decided to shave 75-100 running back touches from the 2014 total – that still puts Dallas in the top 5-10 discussion, which is a reasonable, realistic expectation.
Because running as often as they did last year changes the whole dynamic of an offense, my suspicion is Dallas ends up running more total offensive plays this season. Those missing carries will turn into a bunch more passes, perhaps as many as 100-125. Before we use these figures to get to my point via some sure to be fuzzy math, we’ll need the Cowboys target distribution from the previously mentioned final eight games. Over that stretch Dez Bryant led with 50, Beasley was second on the team with 39, and Terrance Williams racked 25 targets of his own, good for third at the position. Across the entire team, Beasley was the intended receiver on 18% of Romo’s passes.
Assuming 100 more attempts for Romo and an 18% market share for Beasley, we are looking at more than 95 targets. And if he maintains his point per target pace, a 200+ point season is well within reach.
With all these guesses, assumptions, and the math that came from them, what we are left with is a pile of data on which to make a projection. I’m putting Beasley in the 100 target club and expecting at least 175 points. His touchdown rate is unsustainable, but 70 receptions and 1000 yards are both well within reach.
Dallas paid Beasley somewhat handsomely this off-season, another positive sign for my projected increased usage. And they certainly didn’t pony up for him to be an offensive afterthought. While this alone isn’t a strong indicator of his future production, it is another feather in my cap of hope.
Here is the best part: With a current ADP of WR88, Beasley is practically free. Even if the latter part of 2014 was a mirage and even if my projections are as misguided as eating raw chicken, the price of entry is so low you have nothing to lose. Go get Cole. Trust me, I have chest hair.
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- How to Win Without Watching Football - July 22, 2021
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - July 9, 2018
- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018
