Rookies Destined to be Overdrafted

This is where things get tricky. I’m normally the type of fantasy player who focuses on players I like, rather than the ones I don’t. But, for this exercise, I’ll try it out. I probably look at things a little different than most people, but I don’t really play favorites. When I go through and evaluate players I ask myself this simple question:

“Is this player a good value, average value, or below average value at his current ADP ”

Most of the time a player falls in line with the first two options. In general, the community is pretty solid at placing value. But as with almost everyone, I draw lines in the sand with some players and if they cross a certain ADP threshold, I’m out.

Rookies are a bit of a different animal in terms of evaluating where I like them. All we have is pre-NFL information, and other than draft position and landing spot, we’re in the dark. The interesting part about this is that the players listed below aren’t players I necessarily disliked during the process, they’re simply being picked over players I like more. As you’d see in my recent article ‘Island of Misfit Toys,’ I’m willing to buy anyone, regardless of how I evaluated them as a prospect, but the price has to be right.

With that said, let’s get into it.

Dorial Green-Beckam, WR Tennessee Titans
(Rookie ADP: 9)

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You won’t hear me knock DGB’s athleticism or skill level, that never was, and never will be an issue. In fact, If he were at a more reasonable rate (early 2nd round) I’d be a buyer. The price doesn’t match his results as a college player, nor does it match his draft position. I love the pairing with Marcus Mariota, but I’m going to need both of them to prove they can dig the Titans out of futility before I buy into anything. With this type of approach, for better or worse, I’m probably not going to have any DGB shares this offseason. I’m not saying they can’t turn that situation around, but usually bad teams stay bad, and the Titans have most certainly been that for the last five years.

The NFL is getting tougher and tougher on it’s players, and with the media bearing down on them, the slightest mistake can cause career’s to evaporate. We’ve seen this time and again, players with red flags heading into the league get held to an unfair standard. I’m rooting for him to turn it around, but I have too many doubts to spend that high of a pick on him.

I’m also not sure his ceiling is as high as most perceive. Sure, he has prototypical size, but he’s never been a dominant receiver. It’s easy to throw out the term #1 wide receiver potential,  but what does that really mean? When you go down the line of players he will be compared to, I’m not sure I see how he fits in. For a baseline, I consider Alshon Jeffery the 10th best wide receiver in the NFL.  Even if DGB hits his ceiling, I don’t believe he’ll ever be as talented as Jeffery.

I believe this 2015 running back class has six players with feature-ish back ability, or at least high end RB2 potential. Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson are all getting drafted after him – that feels like a mistake.

When you get to Phillip Dorsett, I think situation, draft position, red flags and proven elite quarterback play are all big enough factors to push him over Green-Beckam. This one is close, though, and I do believe Green-Beckham has more skills overall.

Players I’d rather have at pick 1.09: Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Phillip Dorsett, Duke Johnson

Jaelen Strong, WR Houston Texans
(Rookie ADP: 14)

I dove into evaluating Strong last July, he was a player I was really excited about and had high hopes for. Upon looking closer and watching a few of his games, I came to the conclusion I got a little overzealous with my expectations for him. Is he an NFL receiver? Definitely. He has really good ball skills and with his 42” vertical he recorded at the combine, he should be able to dominate on sideline throws and in contested catch situations. Based on college statistics, he checks all the boxes. He not only posted two 1,100+ receiving yard seasons, but he did it at an early age and in his only two collegiate seasons.

He posted a 4.44 forty time at the combine, which was great based on his height, but it was strange in that it differed from what I viewed. He looked slow and not sudden. He also went down very easy on first contact, which is strange for a player of his size. Further complicating things, even with a really strong combine, he fell to the third round.

I like where he landed, but it sets him up for ceiling #2  receiver role behind DeAndre Hopkins for the foreseeable future.  The Texans also don’t have a quarterback, which is a major issue, so getting fantasy points in that offense may be hard to accomplish.

Players I’d rather have at pick 2.02: Duke Johnson, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Maxx Williams

Jay Ajayi, RB Miami Dolphins
(Rookie ADP: 19)

The only explanation for Ajayi’s ADP is people aren’t willing to give up on their pre-draft evaluations. I’m sure the knee problems were an issue and part of the reason he fell, but if he was considered the top 3-5 running back in this class (like he was supposedly believed to be pre-draft), he wouldn’t have fallen to the fifth round.

I do like the volume he produced at Boise State, but he wasn’t as efficient per carry as I’d like him to be, and he isn’t in the same ball park statistically as the other running backs in this class.

All is not lost for Ajayi, Lamar Miller is in the last year of his rookie deal, so 2015 will be a more important than usual rookie season for Ajayi. If he can prove that he can stay healthy, and also prove to be an effective runner both between the tackles and in the pass game, there might be some hope for future fantasy value.

That said, there’s no way I’m taking him over the likes of the players listed below, who have less red flags and more draft position/potential opportunity.

Players I’d rather have at Pick 2.07:  Maxx Williams, Devin Smith, Matt Jones, Tyler Lockett

David Cobb, RB Tennessee Titans
(Rookie ADP: 21)

I really liked Cobb coming out of Minnesota. In any other class he’d would’ve been hovering around the back end of my top five pre-draft running back rankings. Unfortunately, the NFL didn’t see him that way and he slipped to the fifth round.

While players like Arian Foster and Alfred Morris have emerged from the late round nothingness in recent years, they are the exception, not the rule. I do believe Cobb is an NFL running back and I do believe he will carve out a role eventually with the Titans. But, in terms of fantasy relevance, I don’t see a reason for optimism.

Bishop Sankey is seemingly a forgotten man at this point, but we can’t ignore the Titans picked him in the second round just last year. While he underwhelmed statistically last season, it’s fair to argue he was set up to fail, playing for one of the worst offenses in the league. Sankey will get at least this season to prove himself and even if he does fizzle out, there’s no guarantee Tennessee doesn’t address the running back position again next off-season.

I see Cobb as an above average player with a ton of obstacles before he claims any type of sustainable fantasy role.

Players I’d rather have at Pick 2.09: Devin Smith, Matt Jones, Tyler Lockett

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