Dynasty Debate: Andrew Luck, First Round QB?

Ken Moody Posted On June 24, 2015

Typically when assembling these dynasty debate articles, two other writers are solicited to share their differing opinions. I prefer the role of facilitator of the debate. In this situation, however, I’ll be taking a stand myself to defend one of my favorite fantasy players, Andrew Luck. I will debate my position with Brian Malone, a smart and accomplished attorney who dismantles his opposition for a living. It’s probably not going to end well for this kid, but I’m sticking with my story to the bitter end.

Mainstream dynasty strategy is constantly compensating for changes in the NFL game and the fantasy landscape. Recent years have seen the wide receiver position ascend in importance, while running backs and quarterbacks have accordingly lost favor. With more NFL teams leveraging rule changes and a shifting talent pool, and increasingly relying on pass oriented offenses, many more quarterbacks have become fantasy viable. Running backs have seen their workload diminish while wide receivers have become what running backs once were – the engines which power successful dynasty teams. Increased productivity and longer shelf life have made wide receivers the premium assets in dynasty. Quarterbacks, once considered a core element of a successful franchise, are now marginalized more than ever.

So the question up for debate is this – in a ten or twelve team dynasty PPR startup draft, is it wise to select Luck with a first round pick? Should that valuable selection instead be used on another more valuable asset, specifically one of the top wide receivers or the top tight end in the league?

Let the first witness take the stand.

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Ken Moody – The Case For Luck in Round One

When drafting a dynasty team in a startup draft, I typically prefer to build a team around longer-term assets first (quarterback and wide receiver) and fill in with the more transient pieces (tight end and running back) as the team matures. Conventional wisdom these days emphasises wide receivers early in a draft and with good reason – they are more durable assets than running backs and tight ends and if you pick early and well you can secure an elite player at the top of their position for years to come.

But if those reasons are valid for selecting an elite young wideout like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and AJ Green at the top of the draft, the same rationale applies to quarterback Andrew Luck as well. Perhaps even more so. Luck is much more likely be a high performing fantasy asset for longer than any of those players. Considering the longevity of today’s best passers, Luck stands a good chance of being an elite player late into his 30’s – 13 to 14 years from now. Conversely, it’s is far less likely the aforementioned wide receivers, all currently 26, will enjoy top ten productivity beyond the next five years. They will still be productive, but probably not top ten productive.

So in short, if you select a wide receiver early because you want positional advantage for as long as possible, then selecting Luck will do exactly the same thing for you, only for a longer period of time.

In the next few years, many of the top passers in the league will begin to retire. Manning, Brees, Brady, even next-tier players like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo will begin stepping aside a just few years later. Only Aaron Rodgers offers similar upside at the position, though he is almost six years older than Luck. This changing of the guard will only serve to increase Luck’s value over his peers. Sooner than later, Luck will be standing as one of the very few truly elite passers still in his prime. Luck is a generational talent who is already doubling his peers in passing touchdown production. He’s still improving, and the offense around him continues to be increasingly geared to his skillset. The arrow is pointing up. Way up.

Many skeptics will suggest better value can be had by selecting a wide receiver in round one and waiting on quarterback until a later round – this enables you to select a top wide receiver, and get a decent young quarterback like Russell Wilson or Cam Newton later in the draft. This makes sense, building a long term champion around young top-shelf wide receivers is a solid strategy. But you are doing so because those receivers produce at a the highest levels within their position for a long period of time. So ask yourself, who who is more likely to produce top-of-position numbers for longer? Dez Bryant? Julio Jones? Or Andrew Luck?

And that brings us to the final reason why Luck is so valuable. Security. Knowing you have that position locked up for a decade or more. And that peace of mind is more than a mere psychological comfort, it’s a genuine tactical advantage. While your competitors are busy streaming quarterbacks, (which in all but the most shallow of dynasty leagues is nearly impossible to do successfully), or spending time searching for a viable starter or replacing an aging veteran, you instead have the luxury of spending all of your energy on those important, more transient positions. Draft picks, trades, waiver wire moves or bids – all of that activity is now completely focused on constantly building assets at the other skill positions. For ten or more years.

There is no guarantee Luck will be the most productive player at his position year in and year out – just like there is no guarantee AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones etc. will be. But odds are just as high, if not higher than those other players that Luck will be among the top handful of producers at quarterback, and he will almost certainly be doing so for much longer. With that type of certainty and productivity, Luck is not only a worthy pick in round one of any dynasty startup draft, he just might be the most valuable fantasy asset in all of dynasty.

Mr. Prosecutor, the floor is yours.

Brian Malone – The Case Against Luck in Round One

You’d expect someone arguing against Luck to want to talk about quarterback streaming, opportunity cost, and all that. You won’t be disappointed. But first I have to point out that Luck isn’t nearly as good as his 2014 fantasy stats suggest. By any advanced measure I can find, Luck wasn’t even a top-three quarterback in 2014. Total QBR? QB11. Adjusted yards per attempt? QB5. Pro Football Focus rating? QB9.

He did, however, finish among the top three quarterbacks in pass attempts. I expect that result again in 2015, but coaching staffs change, and it’s unwise to rely on that kind of volume indefinitely. (Reminder: not so long ago, Matthew Stafford was being drafted in the first round of many dynasty startups.) Now, I’m not arguing that Luck won’t be a top fantasy (and NFL) quarterback for the next decade; he probably will be. But he likely won’t consistently outpace the competition the way he did in 2014.

With that out of the way, let’s talk about quarterback streaming: don’t do it. The end.

Don’t get me wrong, quarterback streaming works in redraft. And maybe it works in dynasty too, but I’m not about to find out when I can draft two players like Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Eli Manning in the twelfth and thirteenth rounds of a startup and play matchups (not the same as streaming, but, like streaming, it works). And I only have to devote two roster spots to quarterback, just as the Luck owner will devote two spots to Luck and his backup.

But, (gasp), those guys are … old! Indeed they are. But, as Ken rightly noted, quarterbacks last a long time. A Romo/Rivers combination will last you a few years, and by the time one of them retires, there will be a new crop of old, cheap, top-18 quarterbacks to buy at the cost of a 2018 rookie third.

Ah, but there’s the rub, right? The quarterback position is getting old, and there’s no one to replace the crop of top players … or so goes the conventional wisdom, anyway. But let’s take a closer look:

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Avg Age of top 12 QBs	29.92	28.67	31.00	28.92	28.50	28.17	28.00	30.75

This table doesn’t support the notion of a rapid graying at the quarterback position. And unless the trend is clear, I’m not going to worry about how to get cheap quarterback production for the 2018 season until about July 2018.

So we’ve covered the basics: Luck’s façade, quarterback matchups, opportunity cost … ish, and longevity. And we’ve debunked (or at least thrown numbers at) the idea that the quarterback position is going to be losing a ton of production in the near future. That leaves us with a final, subtle advantage of drafting a wide receiver over Luck – the flexibility to take fliers on young quarterbacks. (H/t Ben Kester and Adam Harstad on this point.)

Suppose you’re on the clock at pick 2.06 of a rookie draft choosing between your favorite quarterback prospect and your favorite wide receiver prospect. If you own Luck, you probably have to take the receiver, even if you think the quarterback is more likely to become the better player. Even if the quarterback hits, there’s no room for him in your lineup and the trade market for quarterbacks is spotty at best. But if you drafted AJ Green over Luck, you can simply choose the better prospect. Wide receivers are like Jello: there’s always room for more.

In short, Luck’s positional advantage likely isn’t going to be as big as you think, and his longevity doesn’t matter because replacing quarterback production is (and likely will remain) cheap. And passing on Luck doesn’t mean you have to cycle through the waiver wire looking for whether Geno Smith or Brian Hoyer is a better play in week eight. Make the value play and take the wide receiver (or one of those other positions, if you’re so inclined).

Recap

There is certainly some strong evidence to support each side of the argument. And there is little debate Andrew Luck is the QB1 to own in dynasty. Ultimately, where you draft him in a startup draft depends upon your preferences for building your team and valuation of quarterbacks in relation to other positions. Each of us will have to weigh the facts on our own and make the best judgement call we can, and hope for the best.

So you be the judge. Is Andrew Luck a wise pick in the first round of a dynasty startup draft?

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Ken Moody

Technology Manager - Betsperts at Dynasty League Football

I manage tech stuff for DLF and help in different areas at Betsperts Media and Technology Group.Give me a follow on Twitter at @dlf_kenm.I may occasionally share something useful.