Dynasty Disparities

Brian Malone Posted On June 16, 2015

ertz

I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds, and average draft position (ADP) is one of the quickest ways to tap the crowd’s wisdom. So two of my favorite dynasty tools are DLF’s monthly ADP and Rotoviz’s Best Ball ADP App. I especially like when the dynasty and re-draft ADP reveal disagreement about players, as that often means a chance for me to exploit current dynasty player prices. This article looks at several apparent disagreements to try to find some mispriced players.

Zach Ertz (Redraft: 92; Dynasty: 89)[1] v. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (R: 128; D: 75)

Ertz is going three full rounds earlier in re-draft, while Seferian-Jenkins is going one full round earlier in dynasty. Seferian-Jenkins is actually a few days older than Ertz, so age doesn’t explain this discrepancy. Apparently, dynasty drafters are smitten with Seferian-Jenkins’s upside (making him the fifth tight end off the board), but that infatuation likely won’t last long if Seferian-Jenkins “lives up” to his eleventh round redraft ADP. On the other hand, dynasty owners would likely take note if Ertz performed like the mid-TE1 he’s being drafted as.

Who’s right?

The redrafters get my vote here. They’re right that Ertz is likely to outperform Seferian-Jenkins in 2015. (Contrary to popular belief, rookie quarterbacks aren’t good for tight end volume.) And if he does, he’ll be worth more to dynasty owners in offseason 2016.

Drew Brees (R: 84; D: 95) v. Ben Roethlisberger (R: 87; D: 103)

[inlinead]The discrepancy here is the lack of discrepancy. Roethlisberger is more than three years younger than Brees, and yet both dynasty owners and redrafters are valuing them about equally. Unless there’s widespread concern in the dynasty community about Roethlisberger’s age I’ve missed, this doesn’t make much sense. If, as the re-drafters predict, Roethlisberger and Brees are set up for roughly equal performances in 2015, Roethlisberger should be the more valuable dynasty commodity by a fair margin.

Who’s right?

The re-drafters again. The Steelers have averaged 596 pass attempts over the last two years and I expect them to hit that number in 2015. The Saints, meanwhile, finally appear to be serious about Sean Payton’s annual promise to run the ball more. I might take Roethlisberger ahead of Brees in redraft (if I were inclined to do something so foolish as to draft a quarterback in the eighth round of a redraft). In dynasty, there’s no “might”: Roethlisberger is the more valuable guy, and it’s not really close.

Doug Martin (R: 110; D: 106) v. Charles Sims (R: 83; D: 112.3)

Sims is going more than two full rounds earlier in re-draft, while Martin is going a few spots earlier in dynasty drafts. And dynasty trades I’ve seen further suggest that owners value Martin and Sims about equally. This discrepancy is even odder because Sims is more than 1.5 years younger than Martin. Whoever earns the larger share of touches in Tampa Bay’s backfield will be the more valuable redraft and dynasty commodity by November, so this one boils down to a disagreement about Sims’s chances of winning the job.

Who’s right?

I side with the dynasty drafters on this one. Sims and Martin have a roughly equal chance of fantasy relevance this year, and I’d gladly take Martin in the early tenth round of a redraft league over Sims in the late seventh.

Brandon Marshall (R: 58; D: 62) v. Jeremy Maclin (R: 60; D: 59)

Another disparity in the Brees/Roethlisberger mold – why are the 27-year-old Maclin and 31-year-old Marshall being drafted within three picks of each other in both re-draft and dynasty? Sure, Maclin has an injury history that might cut his career a bit short, but Marshall is no stranger to the trainer’s table. If dynasty drafters agreed with redrafters about these players’ 2015 prospects, then they should be drafting Maclin well ahead of Marshall, despite his landing in Kansas City.

Who’s right?

I’ll call this one a push. Marshall’s being over drafted by a round or so in dynasty, but Maclin is being over drafted by a round or so in re-draft. For dynasty purposes, the advice here is for Marshall owners to try a straight swap for Maclin.

Bishop Sankey (R: 95; D: 118) v. David Cobb (R: 114; D: 113)

Here’s another battle of similar-aged running backs on the same team. And again, dynasty owners think it’s a virtual dead heat, while redraft owners clearly favor one player—in this case, the incumbent. Whoever performs better in 2015 should be the more valued dynasty player in offseason 2016, so this one is another fundamental disagreement about the Tennessee back to own.

Who’s right?

Have to go with the re-drafters here. Sure, as a rookie, Sankey struggled with pass protection, footwork and beating out Shonn Greene. But he’s still the Titans’ preferred option, and I think he can do enough to hold off Cobb. Perhaps more importantly, if Sankey does put up even top-18 running back numbers in 2015, he’ll revitalize the hype that pushed him into the top half of rookie drafts in 2014. If Cobb produces similar numbers, dynasty owners would reasonably fear Cobb would be at risk of replacement in the 2016 draft, a la Zac Stacy in 2014.

John Brown (R: 113; D: 84) v. Kenny Stills (R: 109; D: 101)

The 25 year old Brown is being drafted after the twenty-three-year old stills in redraft, but almost 1.5 rounds earlier in dynasty. This, despite Stills being in a settled situation with a young quarterback in Miami, while Brown’s value rests in no small part on the health of a thirty-five-year old Carson Palmer coming off his second torn left ACL. If they’re expected to perform similarly in 2015, Stills should be more valuable than Brown in dynasty, not the other way around.

Who’s right?

The dynasty drafters have this one, in my opinion. Stills hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a deep threat, and Ryan Tannehill hasn’t shown himself able to support such a player in fantasy. On the other hand, Brown looks like a more complete player, and I think he has a decent shot of being the most productive Cardinals’ receiver as early as 2015.

[1] Redraft ADP is based on Rotoviz’s Best Ball ADP App, using date range 2015-05-23 to 2015-06-06. Dynasty ADP is based on the June mocks conducted by Ryan McDowell.

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