Rookie Player Profile: Justin Hardy

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Video

Against Florida (2014)

Combine Review

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 192 pounds
Hands: 10”
Arm Length: 32.125”
40-Yard Dash: 4.56 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.21 seconds
Vertical: 36.5”
Broad: 114.0”

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Strengths

No one plays the game more determined or aggressively in this draft class than Justin Hardy. He comes back for the ball, makes catches in traffic, and throws vicious blocks for a wide receiver. Hardy managed a 70%+ catch rate in each of his last three years despite having over 100 targets annually. His abilities with the ball after the catch are strong as he combines that demeanor with wicked change of direction abilities and short area quickness.

Weaknesses

Size is something brought up frequently with Hardy as a negative. It’s not his height that is an issue but his lack of bulk, particularly in his lower body. He lacks long speed as well so that small size will be detrimental as he operates in the intermediate field. Hardy didn’t show much of a route tree in college, so he will need to expand that to be effective at the pro level.

Opportunities

Hardy may be going to one of the better passing situations in the NFL. Julio Jones is a premier receiver and Matt Ryan is operating at a high level in the prime of his career. With Harry Douglas having left and only Devin Hester as competition, the third receiver job appears to be Hardy’s to lose. Roddy White isn’t getting any younger either so there is going to be a plethora of targets available in the near future. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan prefers a pass happy system and has been in the top ten in passing attempts in five of the seven seasons he has coordinated an offense.

Threats

While Shanahan’s offense is high volume, it tends to heavily feature one receiver – that receiver won’t be Hardy. Instead, expect Jones to surpass 30% of the target share and be among the NFL leaders in most receiving categories. With White still around, Hardy is at best the third receiving option, which sees between three and four targets per game in a Shanahan system.

The Falcons have tended to be hesitant on giving their rookies much playing time initially, as Devonta Freeman found out last season. Hardy could be surpassed by Hester and others simply based on familiarity with personnel.

Short-term Expectations

Hardy should win the third receiver spot and even play outside at times on run plays given his abilities as a blocker. Realistically, he won’t see many targets barring an injury to Jones or White. There may be a game or two where Hardy accumulates targets, but don’t anticipate many big plays or red zone opportunities given his size and speed limitations.

Long-term Expectations

Hardy is a tough one to peg here. He has the reliable hands and work ethic that has made Roddy White successful, but he is nowhere near the talent. If he does get a chance down the line to inherit the starting spot opposite Jones, he could become a sneaky PPR option who benefits from Matt Ryan’s abilities and his fantasy generosity to multiple receivers. At best, Hardy is a low-end WR3 (more likely a WR4) who can fill in on bye weeks or be a starter for a WR starved dynasty team.

NFL Comparisons

A player who has a similar college pedigree and physical traits is Rams’ receiver Stedman Bailey. Both have that initial quickness and the big hands to catch almost anything but are not deep threats who will stretch the field. Another comparison I like is Troy Edwards, the former first round pick for the Steelers. He struggled to find a role in the NFL after a wildly successful college career due to an inability to get off the line cleanly and gain separation, something Hardy may experience as well.

Rookie Draft Advice

Hardy is being drafted, on average, at the beginning of the third round in rookie drafts. I think that is a little high for me and would prefer to draft him at the end of the third as Kenny Bell and Tre McBride are stronger upside plays at receiver. Hardy has a decent floor for a player going in that range but my preference is looking for a high ceiling, something I don’t see with him.

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