$2,500 FFPC Rookie Draft Review
Editor’s Note: We hope you’ve been enjoying our FFPC draft coverage. The high stakes component makes for an intriguing variable and readers should appreciate these coaches paying the price to compete at this level while also giving these drafts extra attention. The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their length of time and visibility in the space. Since beginning their dynasty games in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity. Whereas DLF is a place you can call home for the best dynasty content to your win league, the FFPC provides the best platform to apply our content – the top competition on the planet and huge dollar purses are just an added bonus!
Welcome to our second installment of our 2015 FFPC draft coverage!
DLF and the FFPC are new partners for 2015 and, as such, we’ll be covering a number of rookie and maiden dynasty drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” label brings with it a higher degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance. These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet that most coaches put a lot of work and research into each selection. With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $2,500 entry fee, there’s no room for mistakes.
This review is a $2,500 12-team rookie/free agent draft. Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR. Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each.
For review purposes I will be covering the first three rounds of this draft as rounds four and beyond saw primarily non-rookie free agents. Notable rookies selected beyond round three will be notated following the primary round reviews. Each pick will be listed along with some thoughts about the selection. Following each round will be a short review of the round in addition to my assessment of best value and biggest reach.
If you’re ready to step up to the most serious competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games!
Let’s dive in!
Round One
1.01 Todd Gurley, RB STL
Once again, Gurley is the top choice. He’s the most talented skill position player in this year’s draft but also carries that ominous ACL tag. He’s young, his ACL injury was garden-variety (if there is such a case) and he should be nearly ready to go come week one. Don’t be surprised if he starts the season on the PUP list. You won’t have to wait long to see your new toy in action.
1.02 Amari Cooper, WR OAK
Seems that Gurley is sitting atop draft boards more often than not as we march toward training camp(s) but Cooper is right there. He’s polished, smooth and NFL ready. He’s going to have a very long NFL career and could anchor your receiving corps. for a decade.
1.03 Kevin White, WR CHI
The stakes have risen in this league, but the valuation has stayed the same in the top four rookies. White has arguably the highest upside of any of the receivers with his size and speed combination and he falls to the Bears who have a quarterback with an established passing attack, the arm to get him the ball and the mentality to take risks downfield.
1.04 Melvin Gordon, RB SD
The only knock on Gordon is his lack of experience in the passing game. Every review I’ve done leaves me no concern about his ability to receive out of the backfield. That said, the Chargers do have other weapons at the position that will likely keep Gordon’s PPR points somewhat subdued early in his career. He’s still a great value selection at 1.04.
1.05 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
The first minor surprise of this draft. DeVante Parker has been most often slotted to this selection but Perriman is no slouch. His Baltimore situation, filling Torrey Smith’s old role, is arguably better than Parker’s in Miami and his role should pay immediate dividends. His hands have been questioned but from my tape review I don’t believe there’s enough reason to have significant doubts in this area. My larger concern is his relatively pedestrian receiving totals at Central Florida. Receivers with elite measurables should post elite statistics.
1.06 DeVante Parker, WR MIA
Heading into this draft, I had Cooper, White and Parker nearly even in ability and upside. Cooper ascended clearly to my WR1 but I still believe Parker is the 2B to Kevin White’s 2A. He’s long, rangy and his ability to high point a ball is as good as I’ve seen coming out of college. He carries a minor injury flag that limited his collegiate production but it’s hard not to see A.J. Green when watching his film. At 1.06, he’s the best value selection in this first round.
1.07 T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX
Yeldon is a great consolation prize if you need help at running back and couldn’t get to Gurley or Gordon. Yeldon has NFL feet and vision combined with the size to churn out extra yards. He’s capable in the passing game and falls to one of the best starting situations in the NFL. Many believe Jacksonville is a poor landing spot for any back but a review of their stats from last year proves otherwise. With upgraded weapons and 2014 rookie Blake Bortles gaining experience, it’s easy to forecast at least 240 rushes for Yeldon. That’s likely enough to warrant RB2 consideration in fantasy. Yeldon did fade in his final collegiate year so there is reason for skepticism.
1.08 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Agholor falls one spot from the $500 draft review from last week. He reminds me too much of Marqise Lee and Robert Woods to not flag him, but he also finds himself in Chip Kelly’s offense which should provide more opportunity. With Perriman off the board already, I think this slot for Agholor is on par with his value and upside. He should see the field a lot early in the year.
1.09 Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
I still believe Abdullah is being over-drafted in fantasy. I love his character, skill set and quick twitch abilities but I don’t see anything more than a role playing back on the minority side of the touches available in Detroit. The departure of Reggie Bush will provide some immediate value but Abdullah is going to have to do his damage primarily outside the red zone in the passing game. I doubt he’ll be a threat to Joique Bell’s interior running stats. This will be all about usage and if he’s involved heavily out of the gate, he’ll make for an intriguing RB3.
1.10 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
Coleman is starting to slip slightly in fantasy and has been shoulder-to-shoulder with Yeldon. I favor Yeldon over the moderately stiff but lightning quick Coleman. Coleman was fun to watch and one of my favorite backs in 2014 but I can’t get beyond his lack of interior running ability when combined with average vision. He’s a home run threat on every carry similar to Chris Johnson but he’ll be sharing carries with Devonta Freeman and they are too complementary for one or the other to routinely lead in carries.
1.11 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
What has been interesting as the stakes rise has been the fall of DGB. The waving character flags are just too much for owners to ignore when production is badly needed from every drafted player, especially with $2,500 on the line. What I love about this selection is that typically these late round selections are made by top teams. If that is the case, DGB has the potential to make a top team even scarier while also not being devastating if he doesn’t pan out. DGB has the talent to be the top receiver from this year’s draft, all character issues aside. He’s an intriguing value while also being a palpable risk.
1.12 Josh Hill, TE NO
The first free agent off the board is a good one. Hill inherits a role within a system that makes for immediate production. He won’t be the upside play that Jimmy Graham, now in Seattle, was but he’ll be targeted often by Drew Brees and should score well in PPR systems.
Summary
We have the 11 of the same 12 players gracing the first round from our first reviewed draft. Only Maxx Williams has been swapped for Josh Hill. There’s no surprise with that fact as in my book the first round is 12 players deep now. The top four are a lock as are the next three (Parker, Perrmiman and Yeldon). Following those seven I then have DGB, Agholor and Coleman, followed by Abdullah and Williams. Any way you slice it, the valuations are close and there’s enough variability for a case to be made for any of the players.
Best Value: Dorial Green-Beckham
He just has too much size, speed and ability not to be incredibly excited about drafting him at 1.11. The risks are obvious but the upside is immense
Biggest Reach: Breshad Perriman
It’s tough to find a “reach” in the first round when most players are being slotted near their assigned values. My only reason for this selection is because DeVante Parker remained on the board. Parker’s talent is undeniable and I believe he’s a safer selection with greater upside. It’s close, however, as I love the combination of Joe Flacco’s arm and Perriman’s role. I won’t be surprised in the least if Perriman has the better career.
Round Two
2.01 Devin Funchess, WR CAR
Funchess has an intriguing skill set and size to match. He was disappointing at the Combine with a 40 in the 4.7s but improved that to a 4.47 at his pro day, a huge jump. 2.01 is a pretty big leap of faith for the big receiver but his versatility and immediate role should pay dividends
2.02 Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
Ajayi is a complete wildcard where once he was a coveted target. The bone on bone condition in his knee has created a situation where the expectation is that he’ll be good for only a single contract. In fantasy, the short life of the running back as is can be an issue and one less than four years less valuable still. I wouldn’t touch Ajayi this early unless I was sure I was going to be competing in the next two years. Just too much risk when other names carry more long term value. His situation is a good one should Lamar Miller struggle.
2.03 Maxx Williams, TE BAL
Williams is a solid selection with immediate upside in a offense that makes use of its tight ends. Dennis Pitta is extremely questionable and may never be the player he once was and Williams, while not elite, could be a top 12 tight end as a rookie.
2.04 David Cobb, RB TEN
Cobb ranks as a top running back sleeper following the draft. Titan Bishop Sankey didn’t look fit for a full time role and Shonn Greene is out of the picture. Cobb has the skill set to be an effective downhill runner in a scheme that needs one, especially within the red zone. He should be more capable than the similarly sized Greene
2.05 Duke Johnson, RB CLE
Another back with talent that falls to an enigmatic situation. Johnson has more inside run game than does fellow rookie Ameer Abdullah but his situation is murky at best. While I’m staying away from the Browns’ running back rotation if at all possible, I have grown more fond of the Johnson that I’ve seen on tape. I still see a time-share change of pace back but with a high ceiling if he can somehow garner 16-18 touches per game in time.
2.06 Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
Initially, I was down on Dorsett in the middle of the second round. I don’t get much of the hype surrounding IF you believe that TY Hilton will remain a Colt in 2016. The Colts will offer a high-octane offense and Dorsett will factor but his production projects to be very inconsistent, which is hard to win with in fantasy. If Hilton departs, Dorsett could rapidly gain value.
2.07 Javorious Allen, RB BAL
One of my sleeper backs. I love his situation and I like his skill set better than fellow Raven Lorenzo Taliaferro. Justin Forsett projects to carry the load so selecting owners will have to be patient, potentially for two years.
2.08 Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
The big receiver isn’t elite in any one area and his Houston selection keeps in firmly in the second round due to the departure of Andre Johnson (IND). Strong should be the third receiver for the Texans and could find productivity in year one. I question how he will match up against the more physical cornerbacks in the NFL but if he can hold his own, he’s got NFL size and hands to be productive for a long time.
2.09 Matt Jones, RB WAS
Jones has been screaming up draft boards of late as news continues to emerge from Washington that Jones will have a role as a rookie and it may be larger than initially expected. Jones has a NFL body but never really showed in Florida, amassing only 11 touchdowns in his collegiate career to with a pedestrian 4.8 ypc. average. At least his legs should be fresh.
2.10 Mike Davis, RB SF
When looking at the second round thus far, it’s becoming a ‘take your best shot’ at finding the starting running back from the third tier of rookies. Davis is as good as any of these names, reminding me a lot of Michael Turner. He’ll be playing behind the young and relatively untested Carlos Hyde so it’s not out of the question that he could have an early role.
2.11 David Johnson, RB ARI
The older rookie will be 24 during the 2015 season, not a desirable age given the already short careers of running backs. But beyond age, Johnson brings great size and significant third down chops to a Cardinal offense that has found that it can’t rely on feature-back Andre Ellington to carry the load, at least not to date. Johnson is stiff in the hips, runs a bit like Tevin Coleman, but doesn’t possess the same speed to the second level. In PPR formats, Johnson could have productive value much higher than this 2.11 selection.
2.12 Owen Daniels, TE DEN
Any tight end of Peyton Manning has tremendous value and Daniels is no exception. He has injury flags and will share snaps with Virgil Green but Daniels is certain to the “move” tight end meaning that he’ll be running routes and catching touchdowns
Summary
It’s not hard to see the drop-off between the two rounds. Clearly, the players gracing round two are … well … round two players. All have a chance to be productive in time but few can be selected with great confidence. Past history has shown that second round players become productive fantasy assets approximately 15% of the time. A selecting coach needs to be evaluate talent first followed by team need. Finding second round productive running backs, or determining which will emerge as the top player, is extremely difficult. This second round grouping appears to have a few names that could outplay their drafted positions. I particularly like the selections of Cobb, Allen and David Johnson.
Best Value: Maxx Williams
Very difficult choice here as all the players fit well in their selective situations. I really like Williams’ landing spot in Baltimore and getting him with the the 2.03 selection is a great value.
Biggest Reach: Jay Ajayi
I came very close to selecting Ajayi as both my best value and biggest reach as I could make a case for both. In the end, Ajayi’s bone on bone situation has not been defended, dismissed or denied which tells me the situation is true. For a running back in the NFL, especially one of Ajayi’s build, there’s just little long term upside outside of a time share role, limited snaps and the potential occasional heavier workload. The Dolphins are certain to not overwork Ajayi and with capable running backs already losing value in fantasy, one with a huge red flag doesn’t project highly. For what it’s worthy, however, he looked great in his last year at Boise State and that’s enough to bank on. I’d only be banking late in the second round.
Round Three
3.01 Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
Take note if your league uses special teams yardage. If so, Lockett will increase in value significantly. I have Lockett slotted as a third round talent with minimal upside, especially in the Seahawk offense. Just not enough of a ceiling for me to invest in.
3.02 Eli Manning, QB NYG
If you’re in need of a quarterback, 3.02 is a great location to get a veteran who will be throwing to a trio of good receivers, one by the name of Odell Beckham Jr.
3.03 Marcus Mariota, WR TEN
Well, here’s a shock. Not that Mariota went in the third round but that he was selected ahead of Jameis Winston. Mariota has a steep learning curve ahead of him and while I watched a lot of him on game days, I can’t project him more highly than Winston. The Titans need offensive help and Mariota should be the signal caller from day one, but I don’t think that will be in his best interest.
3.04 Alrfred Blue, RB HOU
I, too, picked up Blue in the later rounds of my own rookie/free-agent draft. Blue is second on the depth chart behind Arian Foster, unless you believe newly acquired Chris Polk can overtake him. I’ll take that chance and if you can get a young backup in the third round, I support the selection.
3.05 Stedman Bailey, WR STL
While I’m okay with the selection, it’s a stab. There’s upside for Bailey, especially given the need at receiver the Rams possess. Brian Quick should return and Bailey should be the third receiver on opening day.
3.06 Devin Smith, WR NYJ
Smith reminds me a lot of Mike Wallace and I’m staying away just as I have done with Wallace. It’s said that Smith is more than just a deep threat but I haven’t seen that, nor do I buy it. I’ll allow another coach to roll the dice with Smith.
3.07 Danny Woodhead, RB SD
Unless you believe that Melvin Gordon will ascend to a three down back, Woodhead is your best chance at PPR production. I think he’s more dynamic than is Donald Brown and he should hold off Gordon for the change of pace role.
3.08 Jameis Winston, QB TB
Quarterbacks do tend to fall on fantasy draft day but this is extreme in my mind. Many experts still believe Winston is the second quarterback prospect in the past ten years, after only Andrew Luck. That alone warrants a second round selection. Getting Winston in the third round constitutes a “steal” in my book. He’ll be starting, has great young weapons and has the size-arm combination needed to excel at the next level. His questionable decision making is a concern but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt at this point in his career.
3.09 Sam Bradford, QB PHI
Not a great fit for Bradford in my mind. The Chip Kelly system calls for a different style of quarterback but I’m not about to say Kelly doesn’t know what he’s doing. So, until we know for sure how the experiment works out, let’s just say I’m skeptical. As for the selection, I’m fine with the value.
3.10 Darren McFadden, RB DAL
Perhaps I’m being overly subjective but I think DMc has a real chance to carry the load for the Cowboys. I’m not going to project that he keeps it or rushes for 1,300 yards but IF he can stay healthy, running behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL can be a good for one’s career. No back in Oakland has been healthy over the long term for quite some time so McFadden’s change of scenery is intriguing. Joseph Randle will be fighting DMc for the starting role and it’s anyone’s guess as to who will land the gig.
3.11 DeAngelo Williams, RB PIT
If you’re a competing team and need running back production, Williams should provide just that early in the season. Le’Veon Bell’s pending suspension could be reduced but Williams is likely to see the first couple of games worth of carries. Of course, he had plenty of carries in Carolina as well and proved that he’s not the back he once was.
3.12 Chris Conley, WR KC
I love his starting situation, but hate his starting quarterback. You can’t throw zero touchdowns on offense and expect your passing game to get a lot of a hype heading into the next season. Dwayne Bowe (CLE) is gone and Conley will get a chance to see field time early in his career. He’s extremely raw in most all receiving aspects and I don’t expect that he’ll be a top option in his first year.
Summary
We saw a fair number of free agents taken in this round, but that’s not in any way unusual. The only surprising fact, at least to me, is that both Mariota lasted until the third round and went ahead of Winston. Many believe that you must wait to draft rookie quarterbacks and while I agree with that notion, if you can get the top quarterback off the board that also went with the 1.01 in the NFL draft, I pull the trigger at a point in the second round when risk of other position players outweighs reward. If Winston resembles, on the field to any degree, Andrew Luck you have an absolute steal in the draft. It’s not impossible to win a championship without a top quarterback, but a top name makes your job much easier.
Best Value: Jameis Winston
I’m not going to beat the long dead horse here, but Winston in the late third round is an easy choice here.
Biggest Reach: Tyler Lockett
In the third round most players could be classified as a reach, stab or any other cliche’ you’d like to use. Looking at some of the veterans that came off the board, I’d much prefer any of them over Lockett. Lockett does have talent but in a non-return league, his value will be subdued unless he can carve out a receiving role similar to TY Hilton or DeSean Jackson and I’m dubious about his ability to do that.
Remaining Notable Rookies
4.03 Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR
I like CAP’s opportunity in Carolina with a wide open depth chart headlined by Jonathan Stewart.
4.04 Jeremy Langford, RB CHI
Langford is one of my favorite sleeper running backs in the mold of Matt Forte’. Coming out of Michigan State, a good producer of backs (Le’Veon Bell), Langford has a workmanlike skill set similar to the back he’ll be seeking to replace in a year or two.
4.05 Clive Walford, TE OAK
Not a huge fan of this tight end class behind Maxx Williams. Walford has a chance with only Mychal Rivera in front of him. There’s room for snaps to be stolen.
4.07 Josh Robinson, RB IND
Nice sleeper pick here as well as 67 year old Frank Gore seeks to churn out one more year. Robinson has a compact, down-hill running style that fits the Colts well.
4.11 DeAndre Smelter, WR SF
If not for an ACL injury, Smelter would have graced cheat sheets at a much higher position and heard his name called much earlier in the NFL draft. That not being the case, savvy coaches with patience snapped up Smelter late in rookie drafts. He has the size and intriguing skill set to make some noise in the dynamic 49’er receiver depth chart.
4.12 Sammie Coates, WR PIT
Pittsburgh is as good at drafting receivers as is Green Bay and Coates fits the mold of Steeler receivers, good size and fast. His hands are somewhat questionable and he disappeared from games at Auburn but ignore his stats and you will find a very intriguing prospect.
That wraps up our second review of a live high stakes FFPC dynasty rookie draft! If you’re ready to take the plunge and prove you’ve got what it takes to dominate, simply head on over and get signed up today! I’m extremely anxious to see a few DLF’ers take the plunge and prove themselves in one of their high-stakes leagues.
Follow Jeff on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
- Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
- Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
- Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023
