The DLF Mailbag (Bonus Edition)

Eric Hardter

allen

Welcome to a special BONUS edition of the weekly mailbag. We had so many great questions this week so it was hard to stop at one!

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) In our 12-team non-PPR league I’ve been offered Keenan Allen for Davante Adams and Jonathan Stewart. Along with starting two running backs and two receivers we also start two FLEX positions. I currently only have Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Ka’Deem Carey as my other running backs, while my current receiving corps consists of Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Cole Beasley, Markus Wheaton and Adams. I have pick 1.09 in the draft, so would I be risking too much letting Stewart go and aiming for somebody like TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah or Tevin Coleman in the draft but bolstering my receivers with Allen? Or should I hold firm and target a receiver in the draft like Breshad Perriman, DGB or Nelson Agholor if he drops that far?Tim in London

I like Chargers receiver Keenan Allen as much as the next guy (okay, a lot more according to the DLF positional rankings), but I think that’s too high a price to pay. Davante Adams appears locked and loaded as Green Bay’s WR3, and even though the Packers re-signed Randall Cobb it hasn’t had a huge impact, as Adams is still going as the 42nd player according to the May ADP. Throwing in my boy Jonathan Stewart, a legitimate threat for RB1 production this year, and I just don’t think the value is there. With that said, you mentioned about having pick 1.09 – if your trade partner has rookie fever, it might not be a bad idea to offer up the pick for Allen when you’re on the clock. You might need to add a slight sweetener, but it would ensure all three principles in the trade remain on your roster.

2.) My roster is as follows: Cam Newton, Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Isaiah Crowell, Montee Ball, Christine Michael, Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Josh Gordon, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson, Travis Kelce and Tyler Eifert. For each roster spot I open by dropping a player, I will have the first pick in each round of an eight-team draft. I am planning on dropping Tre Mason, Josh Gordon, and Christine Michael. Who else should I drop? Brent in MN

Honestly I think that would just about do it, and I’d actually consider hanging onto Browns receiver Josh Gordon if you can. No, he won’t be playing this year, but I have a tough time believing you’ll find many players in this class with his type of upside. If you wanted to swap him out, I’d part with Vikings “receiver” Cordarrelle Patterson, a player who might not be any better than fourth on his own depth chart. This would provide you with three solid picks in the top-24, ensuring you should be able to restock through your upcoming draft.

3.) I am set at receiver, and have been trying to trade Martavis Bryant for draft picks, but no one seems to want to give me any value for him. Can you tell me what you think his PPR value is compared to rookie drafts picks and against aging veterans? I have been offered a third round pick and Frank Gore, but don’t need another old, middle of the pack running back. Should I just hold on to him and let his value rise. Thoughts?Ramrusher in NV

Pittsburgh receiver Martavis Bryant is a guy I’d definitely be looking to sell. Yes, he looked good in limited 2014 opportunities, but his scoring rate (one touchdown every 6.1 targets) is unsustainable, and the Steelers still have Markus Wheaton and 2015 third round rookie Sammie Coates looking to increase their respective market shares. I’d valuate him at roughly an early second round pick in this year’s draft, and for veterans I’d aim for someone such as Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker or the like. I firmly believe Bryant’s hype is much bigger than his game, and in theory the sell-high window should be wide open.

4.) Christine Michael: I bought into the hype two years ago and he has been patiently waiting on my bench, with no clear opportunity in sight. It’s time to finally give up hope, right?Tony in TX

[inlinead]Meh. I mean I wouldn’t cut him, but if you could get an early-to-mid second round pick I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to do that deal. Lynch is locked and loaded for this year (and perhaps longer should he choose to play out his deal), and Robert Turbin still seems to be the backup favored by the Seattle coaching staff. Maybe he’ll turn it around, but ultimately I believe Michael will go down as a cautionary tale as to why it’s folly to project future depth charts, and why measureables aren’t everything.

5.) In my 10-team, 2QB league I start Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Adrian Peterson, Joique Bell, Lamar Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, TY Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Julius Thomas and Greg Olsen.  I won the last two years, but with probably the fourth best team.  I also have three of the top four picks in the next draft most likely, and have Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson on the bench.  Do I turn Calvin into an RB1, or a lesser guy like Marshall for a RB2, or move the picks for a top tier quarterback to pair with Cam?  What’s my next move?Michael in WI

Honestly, I don’t see too many moves you have to make. Having three of the top picks should ensure you two of the three of Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston and Todd Gurley, with the “consolation prize” being Amari Cooper. Moreover, in a 2QB league I don’t view starting Cam Newton and Manning as a weakness, and at worst they should function as a league average crew. Honestly, I see no reason to tinker with what you have – you have the horses at receiver, quarterback and tight end, and you can re-stock on running backs through the draft. There’s no reason to force anything.

6.) What is your take on Adrian Peterson? I mean there are two sides to the situation – first he’s fresh and has plenty left in the tank being away from football a year, while the other side is that he’s a year out of football and may not be the same player as before. If it takes him awhile to get back into game shape how long will it take? Do you see him making his owners happy?Mike in Parts Unknown

Truth be told, unless your team is firmly in the rebuild stage and Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is a holdover from your 2014 roster, I see no reason to force a trade. Yes, Peterson is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s also a legitimate generational talent, and arguably the best ball carrier we’ve seen since LaDainian Tomlinson. It’s my belief the year off can only help, and I have no worries AP will be in game shape when duty calls. He has legit top-five upside at the position on a Minnesota team that should be much improved from last season – again, unless you’re actively trying to get younger, I see no reason to sell.

7.) In my 12-team PPR league I recently just swapped Jeremy Hill and Bryce Brown for Sammy Watkins. I then received Andrew Luck for Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster and Nick Foles. I went from being the deepest team in the league to possibly needing to go out find some depth at running back, though I still have CJ Anderson, Doug Martin, Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, CJ Spiller, Jerick McKinnon, and Christine Michael. What do you think of the rest of team: Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler, Zach Mettenberger, Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey, Eric Decker, Golden Tate, Donte Moncrief, Jaelen Strong, Phillip Dorsett, Cody Latimer, Michael Crabtree, Brian Quick, Kenny Britt, Stephen Hill, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce and Jordan Cameron? Johnny in NV

Though I really like your first trade, I think you overpaid a bit to acquire the services of Andrew Luck. I’m aware the values probably agree with your side, but I’m just not a fan of overspending on the quarterback position in shallower league setting – sure, Lynch and Arian Foster are aging options, but could function as RB1-level talents in this upcoming season. It also thinned out your running back corps quite a bit, as you’re left with CJ Anderson as your starter, and a bunch of flawed players (although I like both CJ Spiller and Doug Martin) as his backup.

Fortunately, you’re beyond stacked at both receiver and tight end, and have a solid mix of both veterans and younger players. It would be easy enough to flip a guy like Golden Tate, Eric Decker or Travis Kelce to upgrade your ball carriers, while only getting rid of depth. Regardless of what I think about the cost of acquiring Luck, you definitely have a roster ready to win now.

8.) My league-mates and I have decided to convert over to a dynasty/keeper format of sorts.  Each owner is allowed to keep three players off their current rosters, and all remaining players and rookies will enter our start-up draft.  The amount of keepers will increase each year until we are allowed to keep our entire roster. After seeing a few mock drafts posted by other owners, I’m noticing that many have what I feel to be an unusually large amount of rookies ranked high on their boards. Being that this is a hybrid dynasty/keeper league of sorts (at least for the first few years), am I wrong in thinking that only the top 2-3 rookies (i.e. Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper) would be worth spending a high pick on in a start-up draft? Also, do you have any tips for drafting and valuing rookies vs. non-rookies in start-up drafts in general?Samuel in TN

I agree with your assertion that, at least at the onset of your league, an emphasis should be placed on acquiring veteran players. Sure, rookie players remain valuable in keeper/dynasty league settings, but given the small amount of players you’ll keep on a yearly basis, I believe it makes more sense to treat your initial one or two drafts as if you were playing in more of a re-draft league. This will give you an ability to compete immediately, while also picking up veteran values early on should your league-mates shift to more of a youth-centric focus.

With that said, you should absolutely keep at least one eye on the future. If you’re able to keep a younger player who can produce the same as an older player, rostering the former will make sense every time. It’s not always that cut and dry, but in your case it should at least be the secondary goal behind finding a team that can compete.

To your last question, I’m a firm believer in taking the best player available. Sometimes he’ll be a veteran, other times he’ll be a rookie – but I just don’t see the point in ignoring value due to pre-conceived notions of how you should draft. Again, it’s all about different strokes for different folks, but I see no reason why drafting a team that strikes a balance of youth and old age, and win-now ability and future viability, can’t be possible. There’s really no need to fill any sort of cookie cutter mold.

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eric hardter