The Case for Third: Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and TJ Yeldon
It’s a near lock the first two running backs off the board in rookie drafts this year will be Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, likely taken in the top four overall. The bigger question is, “Who’s the third?” This question will be debated through the entire Summer as we seemingly have three candidates for the RB3 in this year’s rookie pool – Tevin Coleman of the Atlanta Falcons, Ameer Abdullah of the Detroit Lions and TJ Yeldon of the Jacksonville Jaguards. In fact, their collective ranking is incredibly close. Abdullah’s overall average in our rookie rankings is 9.67, Coleman’s is 9.83 and Yeldon’s is 10.33, making them #9, #10 and #11 in our overall rankings with a difference of only .66 – that’s razor thin!
Since the debate is going to be hot and heavy, we decided to start it now and not later. In this article, we have three writers who each make a case for one of these running backs to be the third one taken off the board behind Gurley and Gordon. Keep in mind they may not have them ranked this way as their task was to simply make a strong case.
Let the 2015 rookie RB3 debate begin!
The Case for Ameer Abdullah (James Simpson)
Abdullah is not a mere mortal.
In his four years at Nebraska, he was a team Captain, team MVP, first-team All-Big Ten selection and the “Lifter of the Year” in 2012 and 2013 for his work in the weight room (yes, he is ripped). On the field, he exhibited acceleration, agility, awareness and pure awesomeness – topping off a great college career with 1,880 scrimmage yards and 22 totals touchdowns in his final season.
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On film (nine videos on draft breakdown), he is an extremely smart runner, wisely showing patience and ‘allowing his blockers to block’. When he sees the hole, he hits it hard with great acceleration and loves to get north. Smaller sized backs sometimes have the tendency to look for space outside, knowing they can get away with it against less talented and slower defenders in college; however Abdullah runs between the tackles. His infamous game-ending touchdown run against McNeese State was a great example of his combination of balance, drive, elusiveness and burst.
After a combine workout in which he wowed by registering the highest SPARQ score of the running back class, he interviewed well leading up to the draft. An AFC North scout gave him “the highest overall character grade I’ve ever given to a prospect” (for football and off-field character) and I am confident the hard-work, learning and effort that is required to be a great pro will come naturally to him.
Concerns from evaluators included his small hands (and we know small hands mean small gloves), high fumble rate, pass protection and his overall size. Hand size is not enough for me to avoid a fantasy player, and he is still a good receiver who excels in the screen game. The ball security improved every year and he only lost two fumbles in 2014, so that is not a huge concern for me. The (in)ability to protect the quarterback is a stumbling block for many rookies, but my main worry for his dynasty future is that he becomes typecast as a ‘small back’ even though his body doesn’t limit him to ‘small back’ things. If he is always used in tandem with another player, he can still provide a RB2 floor with RB1 upside a la Giovani Bernard. However, unlike Bernard, Abdullah has a clearer path to touches, as Joique Bell is not Jeremy Hill. I think Abdullah will show his clear talent at the top of the depth chart in spells in 2015, and takes over the majority of the carries by the end of the year.
Since there are no Maurice Jones-Drews, Brian Westbrooks or Warrick Dunns (who coincidentally, Abdullah called his role model) in the league right now, I feel players without prototypical running back size can be overlooked. Last year, Justin Forsett had great success for Baltimore and there is no reason that others who have the talent can follow in his footsteps. Ameer Abdullah may be small, but draft him and expect a big return.
The Case for Tevin Coleman (Ken Kelly)
Let’s start with exactly what Coleman is not and just it put out there in the interest of full disclosure. I’m confident this is wise to do because his case is strong even with the concerns you’d have with him.
When you look at his game, you immediately see he’s not the most elusive running back in the world. While he runs very hard, he’s almost like a bull in a china shop as he looks to break every run and take it to the house. He’s also not the most durable as he battled both toe and ankle injuries last year. I’ll concede both of those as outright facts. In addition, he also needs to be more patient as a runner and allow for his blocks to develop – if he can’t get over his injury issues and work hard on becoming a more patient runner, his career arc will be very short.
And I can still make a case for him being taken as the third running back from this draft.
Coleman was an absolute monster during his junior season with the Hoosiers as he amassed 2,036 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on a ridiculous 7.6 yards per carry, becoming only the third rusher in Big 10 history with 2,000 yards in a season (joining Melvin Gordon and Larry Johnson). In short, he was dominant. Before you shrug your shoulders and claim that was against inferior competition, consider the fact he ran for 228 yards and three touchdowns against Ohio State on a crazy 8.4 yards per carry. Last I checked, Ohio State wasn’t bad. In addition, he simply never had a really bad game. He had at least 108 rushing yards in all but one contest (a respectable 71 in the other), posted at least 200 rushing yards in four different games and even put up 307 yards on a leisurely afternoon against Rutgers.
As Jacob Feldman pointed out in one of our mock drafts, he did this while being the undiluted focal point of the Indiana offense as he actually rushed for more yards on the season than Indiana actually threw for. Let that sink in for a moment. In other words, the defense knew exactly what was coming and still couldn’t stack the box with enough defenders to stop him.
Now, to the real juicy stuff.
Indiana ran a ton of zone-blocking run plays over the past two seasons and guess who’s the new Offensive Coordinator in Atlanta? Yep, it’s Kyle Shanahan who runs the same system that made players like Olandis Gary, Rueben Droughns and Mike Anderson look like All-Pros and players like Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Arian Foster become elite fantasy performers. Coleman is a “one cut and go” runner and fits this system perfectly. You could even argue Coleman has the best speed of any back Shanahan will have ever had.
Coleman also finds himself in an offense that’s going to feature the arm of Matt Ryan and the receiving ability of Julio Jones, Roddy White and possibly James Hardy in the future. In short, defenses will simply not be able to stack the box against Coleman and sell out to stop the run – Ryan would absolutely shred them.
While Devonta Freeman still poses a great threat (and possibly the biggest one to all three of these backs), Coleman is more talented and fits the scheme better than Freeman. He could very well be the steal of rookie drafts and picking him over Yeldon (featured in an offense that lacks identity) or Abdullah (serious questions about his ability to be a three down runner) is a choice that wouldn’t leave me losing too much sleep.
The Case for TJ Yeldon (Jeff Miller)
T.J. Yeldon is the peanut butter to my jelly, the yin to my yang, the mustache to my Tom Selleck. I love him at least as much as I love my wife (though he doesn’t get upset when I leave my pants in the middle of the kitchen floor) and twice as much as a bowl of Fruit Loops with marshmallows.
While love is by nature an irrational emotion, I have plenty of rational reasons for liking Yeldon so much. They won’t be as evidencey as James’ arguments for Abdullah or as well thought out as Ken’s support for Coleman, but, hey, you’ve read this far, so why bail now?
From an on-field perspective, the former ‘Bama back is a very smooth one-cut type runner in the mold of Arian Foster. He’s comfortable working between the tackles, using his elite foot speed, creativity and overall smoothness to quickly navigate holes.
Getting through the aforementioned holes is one thing, but as another Alabama alum (*cough* Trent Richardson *cough*) can attest, you have to see them first. Fortunately, Yeldon’s vision is second to none. He anticipates well and is generally decisive when the time comes to turn it up field.
As tough as the SEC is, Yeldon has a nice history of college production. He averaged 5.8 yards on 576 carries, scoring a total of 37 rushing touchdowns over his career. Due to playing through a number of nagging injuries Yeldon’s numbers were a bit down in 2014, but considering his draft position (fourth pick of the second round), the Jags don’t seem to be too concerned there are any lingering issues.
If you are a measureables guy, Yeldon can do that, too. He lowered his combine 40 time (4.61) by nearly a tenth at his pro day (4.52), and at 6’1” and 226 pounds, he has the size to compete.
So, why Yeldon over Coleman and Abdullah?
I have significant concerns about Coleman’s ability to be a true lead back in the NFL. He is too stiff in the hips, gets tackled much too easily and shows no patience as a runner. The comparisons to Darren McFadden are very real and very scary. I didn’t like the former Raider at any point in his career, so I’m not terribly likely to come around on Coleman either, even if he comes out hot.
I’m less bullish on Abdullah. There are a few quibbles, notably his lack of size and fumbling issues. My main fear is Detroit may see him as a lead back, which would be a mistake. Cut from the same cloth as Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington, Abdullah would be best used as passing down back who sees perhaps 200 carries and 50 receptions per season. That places him in the RB1 discussion, but it doesn’t give him the same ceiling as Yeldon.
So, who do you prefer of this trio? Let the debate begin!
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