Exclusive 2015 NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis: Day Three

pickbypick

Editor’s Note: Make sure you’re ready for the draft by checking out our ORANGE Report, the Rookie Draft Board, the IDP Rookie Draft Board our new multi-part Rookie Draft Study and our archive, featuring over 100 in-depth articles already this year.

May 2nd, 2015

We’re back and ready to go for day three.  We should see Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley, Jay Ajayi, David Cobb, Rashad Greene and a whole host of others find new homes soon.

Here’s my word of warning for the day – these players are still on the board for a reason. Many of them are considered projects for teams and the longer they’re on the board, the higher the likelihood is they may not even make their new team. Just because Dallas takes a running back in round five, let’s not assume he’s going to replace DeMarco Murray.

We’ll bring you all the picks as we move forward through the day.

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Rounds Six and Seven

The most interesting picks from a fantasy perspective were at running back (though I think receiver Geremy Davis has some intrigue) with Josh Robinson (Colts), Marcus Murphy (Saints) and Kenny Hilliard (Texans). I’m still just stunned the Cowboys didn’t address the need via the draft and I’m thinking whoever they bring in as an UDFA will be severely overhyped and over drafted. I also feel bad for former Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall, who just doesn’t seem to have a position.

The Rams also traded disgruntled running back Zac Stacy to the New York Jets in exchange for a seventh round pick. Stacy joins the most underwhelming running back corps in the league as he’ll compete with Stevan Ridley and Chris Ivory for carries.

The other pick I really liked was Tennessee grabbing receiver Tre McBride. There’s little risk in round seven and McBride has talent. The Titans had a great weekend for fantasy owners as they picked up Marcus Mariota, Dorial Green-Beckham and David Cobb as well.

Round Five (KK)

At this point in the draft with rounds 5-7, we’ll have write-ups for players of note, including the big names left on the board. We won’t waste your time by doing write-ups for blocking tight ends, H-backs or those who don’t have fantasy relevance.

38 (174) – Carolina Panthers: Cameron Artis-Payne, RB Auburn

I tend to really like SEC running backs and Artis-Payne is no different. He finds himself in a decent situation since the Panthers didn’t take anyone more significant earlier in the draft. As a late fifth rounder, there are no real expectations for him, but he if he shows well in the pre-season, he could push for some regular season carries. We know Jonathan Stewart is the starter, but we also know he can’t stay healthy. At worst, Artis-Payne should push Fozzy Whittaker to be Stewart’s caddy.

26 (162) – Tampa Bay Bucs: Kenny Bell, WR Nebraska

Another possible late round gem, Bell’s numbers suffered because of poor quarterback play, but he still set school records in most major receiving categories. Bell could take some time to be ready, but it’s possible he could play alongside Mike Evans sooner rather than later. I really like Bell as a later round pick in rookie drafts.

24 (160) – Pittsburgh Steelers: Jesse James, TE PIT

Isn’t it fitting someone named Jesse James goes to a team with black as its primary color? James could the long-term replacement for Heath Miller and was a top three tight end on our pre-draft rankings. Problem is, the tight end position just isn’t very good this year and James has a long way to go.  Still, he bears watching.

19 (155) – Buffalo Bills: Karlos Williams, RB Florida State

Another project running back, Williams projects as a backup for LeSean McCoy and special teams player for the Bills. He doesn’t have great instincts and felt content losing carries last season, raising character concerns. Still, he’s a great athlete and his arrival doesn’t bode well for the other running backs behind McCoy, namely Anthony Dixon and especially Bryce Brown.

13 (149) – Miami Dolphins: Jay Ajayi, RB Boise State

A top ten player in our rookie rankings, Ajayi’s slide finally ends with Miami at pick #149 overall. Concerns over the long-term viability of his  knee were to blame for his epic slide and it was epic as most expected him to be the third of fourth running back off the board, not the fourteenth. He has unquestioned ability and many compare him to Marshawn Lynch (I don’t think he’s nearly that strong), but he’s a tough runner, regardless. His career could be very short, though.  In my opinion, Ajayi is going to be a huge boom or bust pick for someone in rookie drafts and we may look back on him and say he was the most overdrafted players this upcoming Summer. He won’t be on any of my teams because I won’t invest the late first or early second round pick someone else will invest in him.  As a fifth round pick, his roster spot isn’t even guaranteed. Likely, yes. Guaranteed, no.

11 (147) – Green Bay Packers: Brett Hundley, QB UCLA

Well, this could very well be the eventual replacement for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Hundley is going to be very hard to keep on a dynasty roster since he won’t play (hopefully) for a long, long time. However, if given a few years to develop his decision making process and break the habit of staring down targets, Hundley has the athletic ability to be a very good quarterback in the NFL. This is a great Ted Thompson pick and while not ideal in short-term fantasy or shallow roster dynasty leagues, this is one of the best possible situations for Hundley’s long-term prospects. Some patience could be rewarded here, but it’s going to take an owner willing to redshirt a player for a few years – that’s easier said than done with roster spots being so valuable. If he develops quickly, you could even see him as a trade chip down the road for the Packers.

10 (146) – Minnesota Vikings: Stefon Diggs, WR Maryland

Simply put, Diggs should have stayed in school after battling injuries all last season. He as explosive after the catch ability, but has a broken leg and lacerated kidney on his resume as well. Once considered a top three receiver prospect, Diggs constantly disappointed with his production at Maryland and followed it up with a fairly average combine, not finishing above 17th in any one area. It will be interesting to see if the light goes on for Diggs in Minnesota.

3 (139) – Jacksonville Jaguars: Rashad Greene, WR Florida State

The Jags have invested heavily in re-tooling their offense and giving Blake Bortles some weapons as they’ve now added Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Rashad Greene, TJ Yeldon and Julius Thomas over the span of the last year. Wow. The arrival of Greene is likely bad news for Ace Sanders and Arrelious Benn. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Greene in the slot, along with Lee and Robinson on the outside as the top three receivers for the Jags this season. Greene isn’t super fast, but he has great hands and runs solid routes. His learning curve shouldn’t be quite as steep as others who are taken in day three, but his ceiling also may not be quite as high.

 2 (138) – Tennessee Titans: David Cobb, RB Minnesota

The Titans invested heavily in Bishop Sankey last season and he disappointed. While he’s still the de facto number one back, Cobb has a lot of talent and should push him hard for carries. If you’re a Sankey owner, this is a great handcuff for you to have (and a necessary one if you believe in the handcuff theory). At worst, Cobb should push Shonn Greene to the side as the complement to Sankey. If he can play faster than his time indicates, he could end up being more.  Cobb is going to be an interesting player to rank on rookie draft boards as he’s a boom or bust prospect.

Round Four (KK)

That’s the end of round four while Brett Hundley, Rashad Greene and Jay Ajayi still sit and wait. The Cowboys still haven’t taken a running back, either. They must have something up their sleeves here. Could they have a trade brewing? Looking at Ray Rice perhaps? Happy with who they have?  Nobody knows for sure right now.

33 (132) – San Francisco 49ers: DeAndre Smelter, WR Georgia Tech

Here’s another intriguing pick. Smelter would have been a day two pick had he not torn his ACL late in the season. Like most Georgia Tech receivers, he’s raw, but he has great post-catch ability in the open field. He averaged over 20 yards per catch and has good size at 6’2″ and 226 pounds. Don’t expect anything soon from him, but he could make for a good long-term stash on a dynasty roster.

27 (126) – San Francisco 49ers: Mike Davis, RB South Carolina

It really wouldn’t be a draft weekend without the 49ers picking a running back. While Davis projects as more of a backup, I’m really beginning to wonder what San Francisco thinks about Carlos Hyde. After adding Reggie Bush and drafting Davis, it’s clear to me they really don’t see him as a three down bell cow type of runner. Davis had weight and work ethic problems, but he does have ability and was productive when he was in shape. He was just outside our top 11 running backs in our final pre-draft rookie rankings and that seems just about right.

26 (125) – Baltimore: Javorious “Buck” Allen, RB USC

Another interesting pick here as Buck Allen ends up with the Ravens. While not spectacular in anything, Allen was very productive for the Trojans as he piled up 1,489 rushing yards and had 41 catches last season. You have to really like the situation here as the Ravens are again turning to the aging Justin Forsett next season. In a perfect world, Allen impresses Baltimore this Summer and competes for the starting job next off-season. The more likely scenario is he becomes a pretty viable backup.

24 (123) – Cleveland Browns: Vince Mayle, WR Washington State

A former JUCO star, Mayle was a third string receiver going into 2013, but he continued to develop and really turned it on last year as a starter as he posted 106 catches for 1,483 yards and nine touchdowns. Now, before you get too crazy and move him up your draft boards, remember he played for the Cougars and Mike Leach’s pass-friendly (understatement) offense. Mayle is a very good special teams player and will be a developmental player for the Browns. The good thing for him is the Browns depth chart for receivers is a mess. When you get this late in the draft, situation really matters.

18 (117) – San Francisco: Blake Bell, TE Oklahoma

The “Belldozer” goes to San Francisco here in round four. A former quarterback, Bell is 6’6″ and 242 pounds and really excels in short yardage and goal line situations. While he probably won’t be taken in most fantasy drafts, he’s going to be an interesting player to monitor.

8 (107) – Atlanta: Justin Hardy, WR East Carolina

If you’re into production, here’s your guy. Hardy posted 235 catches for 2,778 yards and 18 touchdowns the past two seasons. Before you get too excited, just realize he’s not athletically gifted (at least compared to other wide receivers and not you and me), so he’s likely the long-term replacement for Harry Douglas as the third option and slot receiver for the Falcons. Still, Matt Ryan can sling it and White isn’t getting any younger, so Hardy has some intrigue in PPR leagues.

7 (106) – Chicago: Jeremy Langford, RB Michigan State

One of my favorite late round running back prospects goes to the Windy City. Langford posted 1,400 rushing yards in 2013 and followed that up with over 1,500 last season. He averaged over five yards per carry as the replacement for Le’Veon Bell the past two seasons and is a former cornerback and wide receiver. He’s a one cut runner who ran the fastest 40 of any running back at the combine (4.42). Despite being fast, he’s not super elusive and that limits his potential. While he’s no threat to eating into Matt Forte’s workload, he should compete with Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers for passing down duties. This pick doesn’t exactly indicate a lot of confidence in Carey.

6 (105) – Washington: Jamison Crowder, WR Duke

Crowder could develop into a nice slot receiver for the Redskins. He’s not extremely fast, but has good quickness and tends to find ways to get open. He’s only 5’8″ and weighs just 185 pounds, so he may be best served as a return specialist early in his career.

4 (103) – NY Jets: Bryce Petty, QB Baylor

Interesting.

With some uncertainty surrounding the long-term status of Geno Smith in New York, the Jets traded up to nab Petty, who posted ridiculous video game stats at Baylor. It’s a good spot in theory, but Petty is far from ready to play right away. In a perfect world (at least for those dynasty owners who draft him), Smith won’t develop into the franchise quarterback they were hoping for and Ryan Fitzpatrick will take the reigns for the second half of next season, getting Petty ready to take over in 2016. A lot of things would need to happen and Petty would have to really make some adjustments to be ready, but he could be a very good quarterback down the road. If you draft him late in your rookie drafts, you should really hope he doesn’t play for quite some time…you know, because the media and fans in New York are SO patient.

May 1st, 2015

Round Two (Jeff Haverlack)

4 (36) – Jacksonville:  T.J. Yeldon, RB – Alabama

Until the last month, Yeldon was a top four running back on my rookie board, until he slid due to a combination of injury concerns and further tape review.  That said, Yeldon has an NFL skill set, can carry the load and has good hands out of the backfield.  Injury is still a concern for Yeldon at the next level but this selection by Jacksonville is a good fit and immediately vaults him into the first round of fantasy drafts.  Arguably, Yeldon could be selected as high as 1.05 for a fantasy coach needing running back talent, depending on the destination of other backs.  Yeldon isn’t flashy and could be a low floor selection, but he provides great upside.

5 (37) – New York Jets:  Devin Smith, WR – Ohio State

The Jets get a deep ball threat in Devin Smith.  I’m not a fan of Smith’s resume’ or skill set but there’s not questioning his deep speed.  He’s not a multi-dynamic weapon and his upside will be dependent on the Jets’ ability to stretch the field vertically until he proves he can run a greater tree.  Smith will likely slide to the second round in fantasy drafts, perhaps into the mid to late teens behind other more talented options.

8 (40) – Tennessee:  Dorial Green-Beckham, WR – Missouri

One of the most enigmatic players in this year’s draft.  DGB has talent that is off the charts but character flags galore.  At 6’5″/237 lbs. he simply can’t be out-muscled for a ball in the air, has better than average field vision with the ball in his hands and leaps with the best of them.  If not for the character issues, DGB may have been the first receiver off the board.  His ceiling is as high as you could set it and his floor as low but his combination of intrigue and dynamic will call to fantasy coaches likely beginning in the middle of the first round.  Caveat emptor for this risk-on selection.  I’d be a buyer.

9 (41) – Carolina:  Devin Funchess, WR – Michigan

Whether he’s a large wide receiver or a dynamic tight end, Funchess is a match-up nightmare on a team stacking them.  I prefer Funchess as a tight end working the center of the field and deep seams but Funchess is fluid and rangy enough to by a versatile weapon for Cam Newton.  He’s going to slip into the back end of the first round in fantasy and could drop to the second in some situations depending on other skill position players still on the board. He’s got upside that should excite a selecting coach

22 (54) – Detroit:  Ameer Abdullah, RB – Nebraska

Detroit gets an ultra-dynamic player that is quicker than fast.  He’s got an undeniable agility dynamic and will factor immediately in PPR leagues.  I’m not as high on Abdullah as most but Detroit is a great situation to highlight his skill set for operating in space.  With Joique Bell doing the heavy lifting, it remains to be seen how the load will be split between Abdullah and Theo Riddick.  Riddick looked more than capable and was a late season riser, with high hopes for ’15 as Bush departed for San Francisco.  It’s a bit of a crowded mess but Abdullah’s skill set should be on display this year.

23 (55) – Baltimore:  Maxx Williams, TE – Minnesota

Baltimore gets it’s high-upside tight end in a system that uses one heavily.  Williams is a workmanlike player with enough speed and hands-ability to be productive from day one.  That said, tight ends have a notoriously long integration period into the NFL and even first round players can take multiple years to make an impact.  The Baltimore situation is ideal for early-career production and only Crockett Gillmore remains above him, realistically, on the depth chart.  Let the battle begin.  Williams will still likely fall to the second round in fantasy drafts but could slip into the very bottom of the first in some cases.

Round Three (Jeff Haverlack)

4 (68) – Oakland:  Clive Walford, TE – Miami

Walford will slide in behind Mychal Rivera as the TE2 in the offense but has room for promotion.  Rivera came on late for Oakland and the addition of Walford here will keep the pressure on to continue performing.  Walford will be a later round selection in fantasy.

5 (69) – Seahawks:  Tyler Lockett, WR – Kansas St.

An undersized threat in the mold of last year’s selection of Paul Richardson and, arguably, Doug Baldwin.  The Hawks are prioritizing speed and space in their receiving corps., with the exception of Jermaine Kearse, whose job is seemingly safe on the outside.  Lockett could see time with Richardson in the return game and will likely see limited time in the slot as a rookie.

6 (70) – Houston:  Jaelen Strong, WR – Arizona St.

The wait for Strong finally ends as he lands in a great situation, Houston.  The Texans are looking to replace the big bodied presence of Andre Johnson (IND) and tab Strong, who will have a chance to start from day one.  Strong doesn’t play as fast as his 4.44 time would suggest.  He’s a bit of a “loper” in his routes but climbs the ladder well and uses his body effectively.  He’s a play-maker and if he can refine his route running, he’s got big time upside.

9 (73) – Atlanta:  Tevin Coleman, RB – Indiana

This is a great selection for Atlanta as his situation is ideal, the depth chart is favorable and there’s a perfect match between ability and need.  In fantasy, Coleman will out-draft his NFL selection, likely falling to the bottom-third of the first round, but will bring with him, a lot of upside.  He’s a high runner with a second gear great enough to go the distance on every touch.  He’s got a thin base and little tackle breaking ability, but the ability to add some weight. If he can gain 10 pounds of NFL mass in his base, he has the potential to become a three down back for the Falcons.  Recall, however, that the Falcons selected Devonta Freeman highly in 2014, who is best suited as a third down back, but with some early down ability.  This mystery will take time to solve and Coleman’s value will slip slightly because of it.

11 (75) – New Orleans:  Garrett Grayson, QB – Colorado St.

The “next” has been chosen.  The next after Drew Brees that is.  Grayson is an intriguing prospect but isn’t elite in any one characteristic.  He has great pocket presence and can throw-open his receivers.  He’s got nice athleticism and fits what the Saints do on offense.  He’ll learn from the future Hall of Famer, Brees.  Grayson will be a late third round selection in all likelihood.

12 (76) – Kansas City:  Chris Conley, WR – Georgia

The 2015 underwear-olympics workout warrior has been selected.  The Chiefs traded up for the rights to select the athletic freak.  Conley, 6’2″/213 lbs., ran a 4.35 forty and crushed the vert by jumping an insance 45″.  He’s raw in every respect but he’ll have upside as he’s got characteristics that can’t be taught.  The Chiefs are a great landing spot for the warrior, which should give him a puncher’s chance of sticking on the roster.

13 (77) – Cleveland:  Duke Johnson, RB – Miami

The Browns had a two-headed running back attack in 2014 and now may migrate to a three-headed attack with the addition of Duke Johnson.  Johnson brings more between-the-tackles ability than does Ameer Abdullah selected earlier, but some may argue that.  Johnson is a creative carrier that possesses good hands and some inside ability.  His dynamic is undeniable but falls to a complex situation that is sure to drop his value.

21 (85) – Cincinnati:  Tyler Kroft, TE – Rutgers 

An athletic player that will likely ride the bench for some time barring injury.

22 (86) – Arizona:  David Johnson, RB – Northern Iowa

The sleeper back of 2015 falls to a great situation in Arizona.  It appears that Andre Ellington experiment has failed, at least as a three down back.  Ellington just couldn’t hold up to pounding but still carries third down+ ability.  Johnson enters the situation as a big back with fantastic hands, adequate speed (4.50) and good size (6’1″/224).  The debate rages on about whether Johnson is truly a three down sleeper.  I’m not in the camp that believes he possess starter characteristics but as a running back, offensive line and opportunity can go a long way to providing impact.  He’ll have a chance.  Johnson may find himself drafted in the late first round in some rookie drafts.

23 (87) – Pittsburgh:  Sammy Coates, RB – Auburn

6’1″/212 lbs. and with 4.43 wheels, Coates struggled with his hands but has undeniable talent, especially in long speed.  His situation won’t pay a lot of dividends and he’ll fall into the third round in fantasy.

25 (89) – St. Louis:  Sean Mannion, QB – Oregon St.

The third best quarterback on many scouts’ board, he’s a statue in the pocket and reminds me a lot of Derek Anderson with his strong arm and limited (nonexistent) mobility.  The most interesting aspect of this pick is that he was selected before both Bryce Petty and Todd Hundley.

28 (92) – Denver:  Jeff Heuerman, TE – Ohio St.

Heurman is a plus athlete falling to a good situation as long as Peyton Manning remains.  With Owen Daniels and Virgil Green still in town, however, don’t get overly excited.

30 (94) – Green Bay:  Ty Montgomery, WR – Stanford

I haven’t watched any tape on Montgomery and quick research finds little to be excited about.  However, Green Bay remains perhaps the best team at finding a selecting underrated receivers.  A selection of Montgomery by Green Bay alone means more research should be done.

31 (95) – Washington:  Matt Jones, RB – Florida

A great value pick by the Redskins here.  Jones is 6’2″/231 lbs. and is a load when running downhill.  Not a lot of wiggle or shiftiness in his game but in a one cut zone scheme, he’s got great short yardage+ ability.

Day Two Summary

A little bit of a yawner for the second day.  We had a lot of lost value in many higher profile fantasy players tonight.

Rising in value is T.J. Yeldon who was selected by Jacksonville with the fourth selection of round two.  Yeldon’s size and speed combination is enough to garner three-down usage IF he can stay healthy, something that has been problematic for him to date.  Devin Smith, a somewhat one dimensional talent, was over-drafted by the Jets at the fifth pick in the second round.  In fantasy, Smith just doesn’t have much allure in my estimation.  The most interesting selection may be that of Dorial Green-Beckham, selected by the Titans at #40 overall.  Too early to tell if DGB’s situation is ideal for his skill set and I would have preferred to see a more experienced quarterback at the helm as he’ll need leadership and mentorship to stay on track.   But he possesses undeniable ability.

Devin Funchess becomes a bookend across from Kelvin Benjamin in Carolina.  Cam Newton should be smiling even wider.  Higher profile backs Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johnson were selected later by the Lions and the Browns respectively, situations that are murky at best.  Both lose significant value.  Tevin Coleman in the third round to the Falcons provides a LOT of upside and intrigue.  I expect to hear his name late in the first in fantasy drafts.  Downgrade Devanta Freeman.

The biggest surprises to me are Jay Ajayi, Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley all remaining undrafted thus far.  Running back David Cobb also remains unselected.  The Cowboys are certain to tab one of these bigger backs in the next two rounds.

When it was all said and done, I believe the second round of fantasy drafts got much narrower in talent, as is normally the case.  The second and their tier running backs will have their suitors in fantasy, but don’t overpay or overdraft.  Time to get to work on my rankings.

Hope you enjoyed our first two days of coverage.


Good afternoon!

After a fairly vanilla first day in regards to big trades, we’re looking forward to day two getting underway this afternoon. This is usually the most exciting day in terms of dynasty league draft prep as we’re bound to get a whole host of late first and second round rookie picks find new homes and debate just how valuable each and every one of those players are.  In reality, it’s pretty easy to pick Amari Cooper or Todd Gurley – you don’t need us for that. However, the back half of the draft is where we do our best work, so thanks for spending it with us.

Some names I’m looking forward to seeing come off the board soon include Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, Bryce Petty, Duke Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, TJ Yeldon, Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham, Devin Smith and Maxx Williams.

As far as situations go, everyone know Dallas is a great one for running backs, so I’m very curious to see just who they choose to replace DeMarco Murray. We’ll be back tonight to update everything as it comes in.

April 30, 2015

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve again been waiting forever for the NFL Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you, our Premium Content members, for spending it with us.  For many of you, this is your fourth NFL Draft as a Premium Member and your support continues to fuel our fire!

Let’s start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like past years, so grab a beverage and buckle up.

1.) We’ll start off later today with some random comments about the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting tonight. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you.  Easy choice for us, there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the NFL Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin as we complete our wrap-ups.  We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, within the Premium (or free) forums or over at the live chat we’ll be facilitating over the weekend. While we won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (we’ll have our hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged.  You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.

We’re absolutely stoked to again be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us.  Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft!

Oh, and one other thing.  Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect.

Posts are authored by either Ken Kelly (KK) or Jeff Haverlack (JH).

Round One (Jeff Haverlack)

1 (1) – Tampa Bay:  Jameis Winston, QB – Florida State

If you’re in a 2QB league, he’s going to go very highly.  He played in an effective scheme, can operate from under center, has a rocket arm and the intelligence to play the position.  Many have him behind only Luck as the best quarterback to come out in the past decade.  While I don’t share the opinion, his selection by Tampa Bay combined with his tangibles make for an intriguing selection.  In non-2QB leagues, Winston is going to slip until the late first round in all likelihood.  If, however, you share the opinion that he’s behind only Luck in talent, then you can make a top three argument.  With a young receiving corps. filled with play-makers, there’s a lot of upside for a team with a need at the position.

2 (2) – Tennessee:  Marcus Mariota, QB – Oregon

The biggest mystery of the 2015 draft has been solved.  Marcus Mariota is a NFL-raw prospect but with no questions in work ethic, character, leadership or play-making ability.  Many questions have been raised about his quiet demeanor but make no mistake, Mariota can play the position and put up ridiculous numbers in the Oregon spread offense.  The question surrounding Mariota will be just how quickly he can learn to operate from under center. He’s a polar opposite of Zach Mettenberger whose value is now a modicum of what it was 10 minutes ago.  Mariota will not have the system or the weapons to be an early performer but fantasy leaguers should still be intrigued with his long term value.

I’d caution readers not to react too quickly to this selection as a trade could still be in the works and Tennessee made the right decision to keep talks moving forward if desired.

4 (4) – Oakland:  Amari Cooper, WR – Alabama

Derek Carr gets a new toy.  Cooper is without question the most pro-ready and polished receiver in this draft.  With mature route-running characteristics, a never-say-die work ethic and catch-and-run ability, Cooper will immediately step into an unquestioned WR1 role with the Raiders.  Fantasy ballers may hate the selection due to the lack of productivity from Oakland’s skill position players but they haven’t had a talent like Cooper in years.  It still too early to handicap which receiver will be first off the board in fantasy, at least until we see Kevin White’s destination, but Cooper should realistically remain on top looking at the potential teams still to select.

7 (7) – Chicago:  Kevin White, WR – West Virginia

Jay Cutler gets a nice receiver upgrade in the physical freak by the name of Kevin White.  Let the debate begin as to who should be the first receiver off the board.  White’s situation is more desirable while Cooper is the better prospect with a longer resume’.  White may be a one-year-wonder, but there is nothing but ‘wonder’ when looking at his height/hands/speed dynamic.  He’s go the size and tangibles to be a force in fantasy from day one.  Starting across from Alshon Jeffery, White will immediately garner quality targets.  The top running backs have yet to he drafted and we need to see their situations before we can begin pulling together a top four ranking list.  There’s a lot of fun still to be had.

10 (10) – St. Louis:   Todd Gurley, RB – Georgia

This is a surprise!  The Rams, already sporting upside prospect Tre Mason pull a Gurley out of their hat.  This selection hurts Mason’s value in a big way and may even hurt Gurley’s in the process.  Gurley was the top prospect in this draft for many a scout and aside from his ACL injury, there’s no questioning his upside and status as the top back since Adrian Peterson.  Much will need to be learned about the time-share between Mason and Gurley and the top four in fantasy is now officially up in the air.  With Melvin Gordon still unselected, a destination of either San Diego, Arizona or Dallas could reignite his flagging value.

There’s still speculation that Gurley will start the season on the PUP list, but still extremely young, he’ll have plenty of years to make his mark in the NFL.

12 (12) – Miami:  DeVante Parker, WR – Louisville

Parker is clearly my WR3 in this year’s draft.  In fact, it will not surprise me in the least if Parker goes on to have the best NFL career from this year’s crop of receivers.  He possesses amazing body control, some of the best leaping ability that I’ve seen in ANY receiver.  There have been questions about his hands and route running but I’ve seen nothing in either area that causes me any concern.  In Miami, Parker will be an immediate starter and big receiver presence that the fins desperately need.  Tannehill gets a big target and now has a young and dynamic trio of receivers.  Parker’s value should remain as the WR3 in this class but we still have important picks to come.  Stay tuned.

15 (15) – San Diego:  Melvin Gordon, RB – Wisconsin

Gordon is arguably my favorite player in this draft.  Not my favorite talent but player in the way of work ethic, character and energy.  There’s no denying his ability on the field and his work ethic reminds me a lot of Russell Wilson. One only needs to see an interview with Gordon to understand his passion and his work ethic.  On the field, Gordon is a three down back even though he hasn’t shown prolific hands.  He’s fluid in catching the ball and has the agility and speed that requires getting the ball early and often.  San Diego was my second rated situation for a running back and Gordon is now in play for the first overall pick again, although many will still favor Gurley.  This renders Brandon Oliver and Donald Brown afterthoughts in fantasy.  Oliver can still be held but he’s now at the bottom of your roster.

20 (20) – Philadelphia: Nelson Agholor, WR – USC

Agholor had been linked to the Eagles for a month as Chip Kelly looked for a replacement for the departed Jeremy Maclin.  Agholor looks a lot like Maclin but with a better speed dynamic, at least on tape.  Ultra-productive in the USC system, Agholor should have no problem sliding into a starting role in an offense built for speed.  This selection makes for a very intriguing mid first round selection in fantasy, potentially paying greater dividends than DeVante Partker (Miami).  What won’t be known is just how Philadelphia will spread around the ball in Kelly’s quick twitch offense, but what is known is Agholor’s fit within it.  With at least two remain higher profile receivers still on the board (Perriman & Green-Beckham), it’s hard to place Agholor’s value at this juncture.  He’s going to be a very sneaky play for the informed coach.

26 (26) – Baltimore:  Breshad Perriman, WR – Central Florida

Perriman has been rising into the draft as he ran a pair of ridiculous forty times in the 4.20s.  He’s got Julio Jones’ size and better speed but carries questions about his hands as his drop percentage was higher than desired.  Additionally, his route running is suspect and raw.  The Ravens lost Torrey Smith (SF) and had an immediate need for a speed receiver replacement.  With Perriman, they get the needed speed but also size that Smith didn’t possess.  Joe Flacco arguably throws the prettiest deep ball  in the NFL and he can also chuck it a country mile.  Perriman will be a back-half of the first round selection in fantasy and likely won’t possess a high ceiling in 2015. He’s a prototypical boom or bust selection but I love his upside.

29 (29) – Indianapolis:  Phillip Dorsett, WR – Miami

Another riser into draft day, Dorsett is diminutive but in the new look NFL that features speed and space, Dorsett will see the field immediately in the slot.  With legitimate 4.33 wheels, he should excel in space.  Paired with the newly acquired Andre Johnson and the rising TY Hilton, Dorsett should feast on secondaries underneath with the ability to get over the top on occasion in an offense loaded with dynamic.  Andrew Luck gets another weapon and his fantasy arrows are pointing even higher than they were prior to this selection.  Dorsett will likely be a selection near 1.10 as the top offensive players but could slip into the second round as concerns arise regarding whether enough opportunity will exist in the loaded offense.  Just where does Donte Moncrief fit in?

Round One Summary

Quite a few surprises were in store for us in this first day of drafting.

1)   Lack of large trades – After hearing so much about trades that could take place in the top third of the draft, nothing of real note occurred other than San Diego’s move up for the rights to Melvin Gordon
2)  Marcus Mariota is a Titan – This may not be a surprise to many but it was to me.  Tennessee turned down a huge offer from the Eagles but obviously decided that they had their new “face”.
3)  Both Dorial Green-Beckham and Jaelen Strong both went undrafted – I expected at least one of them to be selected in this first round.
4)  Cleveland doesn’t take a receiver – This was a huge surprise to me

Looking to fantasy drafts to come, we have a bit of a mess.  The top four are certain to remain the top four.  Arguably, Melvin Gordon now resides in the best position of any of the four.  Todd Gurley, now expected to start the season on the PUP list, heads to St. Louis and should send Tre Mason to the bench.  All things being equal, Gurley’s ceiling is higher but there’s no discounting Gordon’s value in San Diego.  At receiver, Kevin White’s Chicago selection is arguably better than Amari Cooper’s situation in Oakland, but Derek Carr is no slouch.  Cooper will have no competition for the WR1 role in 2015.  Let the games begin.

Looking to day two, we still have Dorial Green-Beckham and Jaelen Strong highlight the receiver group while Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson and Ameer Abdullah remain on the board at running back.  Look to Jacksonville (36) for a running back selection though depth at the position in ’15 could push their selection to the third round.    Maxx Williams, tight end, should hear his name called but there are few teams with need early in the round.  Look to Chicago (39), New York (40) or Atlanta (42) with a need for Williams.

The top four in fantasy will remain some combination of:  Gurley, Gordon, Cooper and White.  The next four will currently contain Parker, Perriman, Agholor and Dorsett, at least until we see the situation of Green-Beckham and Strong.  Dorsett and Agholor could drop although I do like Agholor’s situation quite a lot playing in Chip Kelly’s system.

Keep it tuned here tomorrow where we’ll pick up the action with round two!

Thursday, 4/30

JH 3:30 PM PST

I’ve had a couple comments regarding my take on Mariota possibly going to the Eagles.  In short, I believe the Eagles ultimately WILL get a deal done, I think they have to.

I’ve said before that I don’t believe Mariota is a transcendent player at the position, nor one that will be able to take over the game.  But, he’s as solid of a player and character as you can have as the face of your franchise and his stock could not be higher in the offense that made him the player that he is today.  Chip Kelly is intimately familiar with Mariota and the reverse is true as well.  Having a player, especially at quarterback, that can come in and run the offense and tempo natively cannot be under-stated.  Chip Kelly and the Eagles must get this trade done, dare I saw almost regardless of the cost.  Sam Bradford, acquired early this off-season does not fit the profile needed by Kelly’s offense.

I fully expect Cleveland to acquire Bradford for a first round pick which will give the Eagles further ammunition for acquiring Mariota.  These two first round selections, combined with younger players currently on the block in addition to other draft compensation should be enough to get the job done.

There is no question in my mind that this deal will be done and Mariota’s name will be announced at 1.02.

Thursday, 4/30

JH 11:15 AM PST

Let’s take a look at my skill position mock:

1.01   Jameis Winston, TB
1.02  Marcus Mariota, PHI (CLE?)
1.03  Amari Cooper, JAX
1.04  Kevin White, OAK
1.06  Todd Gurley, NYJ
1.10  Devante Parker, STL
1.14  Breshad Perriman, MIA (watch New Orleans ahead of them and watch Dorial Green Beckham)
1.16  Dorial Green-Beckham, HOU
1.17  Melvin Gordon, SD
1.18  Nelson Agholor, KC
1.26  Jaelen Strong, BAL
1.31  Phillip Dorsett, NO

That would make 12 skill position players taken in the first round.

There is SO much variability in this mock.  A lot of this is predicated on the Gurley going at 1.06, which is very high and not the Jets’ greatest need. Additionally, teams that could break this mock are Minnesota at 1.11, Cleveland at 1.12 and New Orleans at 1.13.  Players that bust the mock are Perriman, Green-Beckham and Agholor.  They are extremely difficult to mock as all have risk not carried by the first three receivers off the board in Cooper, White and Parker.

It’s going to be fun!

JH 10:45 AM PST

Welcome to our coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft!  For me, this is the most exciting day of the year.  Whether you have a favorite team, favorite fantasy team or, most likely, a combination of both, the NFL draft ushers in a new year of hope, young talent and a lottery feeling that can’t be matched by another day during the year.

This year’s draft is sure to be the best fantasy-related draft in the past 15 years and I’m very comfortable in saying that.  What follows in this, my first post for this blog, are thoughts as to what I’m watching for specifically in addition to my expectations for certain players.  Let’s get started.

Of 32 selections, my prediction is that we’re going to see 12 offensive skill position players.  This breaks down to two quarterbacks, seven receivers, two running backs and a one flex, basically a wildcard selection of a third quarterback, eight receiver or the potential of Maxx Williams.

Let’s talk about 1.02.  Let me be clear with my guess here.  Mariota is selected at with the 1.02 but is NOT a Titan.  I believe in Tennessee’s belief of Zach Mettenberger and even support it.  I’m in Mariota’s back yard and while he’s a great kid, leader and mind, I don’t believe he’s a transcendent talent at the position UNLESS you have a system that specifically utilizes what he brings to the table.  To that end, the Browns have the most ammunition to get a deal done and they absolutely need a face of the franchise.  That said, there’s a large part of me that believes that Chip Kelly and the Eagles will do what it takes to land Mariota.  Sam Bradford, picks and players can get the deal done but that doesn’t mean that Bradford becomes a Titan.  A three-way trade with Cleveland can get done.  When the smoke clears, I think the Eagles land Mariota for a combination of picks and young players.

Amari Cooper is a huge mystery.  Not in talent, but as to where he ends up.  In my mind, it’s nearly certain that he’ll be on a plane for Jacksonville or Oakland, barring trade.  Don’t sleep on St. Louis trading up to land the rights to select Cooper, but the talent at receiver is deep enough to keep the Rams at 1.10 where they could draft Devante Parker.

Leonard Williams mucks things up.  He’s a huge talent, a great personality and has solid character and work ethic.  I believe it’s a 50/50 proposition that Williams is drafted by Jacksonville but I’m now slightly favoring a Jags selection of Cooper.

There’s a lot of talk about the third QB off the board.  For my money, I still prefer Hundley’s combination of arm and mobility over Petty as a more prototypical NFL passer.  Both are intriguing and I don’t doubt that both will get a chance to lead a team in the next couple of years.  I have tended to favor more prototypical quarterbacks in the past couple of years which should favor Petty but I really like Hundley’s combination of talents.

Maxx Williams may slide into the first round but I don’t much care where he goes.  I think he’s going to be over-drafted in fantasy and while first round tight ends nearly always produce in fantasy, you have to be patient.  It’s not uncommon for a rookie to take three years before getting a glimpse of potential.

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jeff haverlack