DLF Q&A with Mike Margossian

I was never on Twitter prior to Dynasty League Football but have met a lot of great minds for fantasy football in my brief time interacting with people. Mike is not only a sharp fantasy football player, but he’s a great guy, too – that’s what I would call a dual threat and an easy follow for me. For many of you that play MFL10s, Mike is someone you probably know already. He offers a great tool that helps owners organize their draft boards and assess their team after an MFL10. He is also a writer for the Fake Pigskin, focusing on dynasty and MFL10s.

Because of these MFL10s, Mike is very experienced with the best ball format that is starting to become more popular, even among dynasty leagues. We are in a best ball dynasty league together where I’m sure his knowledge will prevail over my luck and love of Kenny Stills. We will discuss his MFL10 resume, some best ball best tips, dynasty thoughts of course, and more in this edition of the DLF Q&A.

DLF: Mike, I’m glad we get to do this as I always enjoy our Twitter exchanges. Let’s start with your area of expertise. Can you give a brief synopsis of an MFL10 and what initially drew you into the format?

Mike:  Thanks George, glad to do this! Always fun to talk football in any capacity. MFL10’s are draft-only bestball leagues with 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Defense, and 11 bench spots. Each week MyFantasyLeague automatically puts your best lineup in, and most points after 16 weeks wins, simple as that! The $10 ones, first place gets $100, 2^nd gets a free entry next year, and 3^rd gets nothing ($25 and up has a 3^rd place prize).

I first got hooked on these back in March of 2014, while still coming down off the high of seeing Peyton Manning getting embarrassed in the Super Bowl, I had a drafting itch and stumbled across @FFRittle who was going strong on them and decided to give it a shot. Hooked!

DLF: How did that transition you into creating a usable tool? I’m a big spreadsheet guy like you seem to be so I love the idea. Do you typically like to create these kinds of tools for other fantasy leagues?

Mike:  I’ve always used Excel (Wife still laughs at me) for everything in my life, so fantasy football was no different. I actually started a salary league back around 2006 that was tracked entirely in Excel (played on Yahoo) that was and is pretty intense (still going). Once I started joining multiple dynasty leagues I actually created and still use a big file for all my rosters, rankings, ADP data, ages, you name it! Now that my MFL10 file is really solid, I think I am going to work on building my league file up a lot (and who knows if that becomes something)?

So once I started doing multiple MFL10’s, my natural reaction was to create an excel file for this. I started to notice that from draft to draft players were taken at vastly different spots and thought of how could I exploit this? So the tool was born! I made it strictly for myself to use, and over months and months I built it up to import current drafts to bounce against the weekly ADP data I gathered, track my player shares, and track my overall team construction. It wasn’t until a few weeks into MFL10’s this year that I decided that I could sell this for others to use (I have had nothing but positive responses so far, which I was very nervous about)

DLF: What is your general strategy going into MFL10s? How have you seen that change in your early leagues compared to those later in the offseason?

Mike: There are two ways to approach MFL10s; as a 1 time draft, go for the win, and that’s that. OR pick a rough number you plan to complete this year and view it as a whole (volume based drafting). This year I plan on doing roughly 70 MFL10s, as a rough rule of thumb for players I really like, 25% is about the max shares I want, and go down from there for players I don’t like as much. My goal is to profit overall and not win every single one, and by not having 75% of 1 player, this helps. It does limit the upside a bit, but imagine having 75% of Adrian Peterson last year, you were dead in the water.

There are 3 phases of the MFL10 drafting season: Pre Free Agency, Pre NFL Draft, and Post NFL Draft, with the most movement happening right after the draft. Right now we are Pre NFL-Draft, which is a scary time (The NFL Draft can change a team’s construction very quickly, for better or for worse). As you might guess, rookie RB value is very dependent on where they land, so right after the draft we will see guys shoot up and guy fall like a rock. Pre-draft last year I drafted guys like Lache Seastrunk who very little to no value post draft, but I also drafted (in a league I won) Jeremy Hill in the last round. I opt for the spray and pray method somewhat pre NFL Draft, I won’t load up on any 1 rookie for fear that they get buried on a depth chart or end up in a horrible situation (see Latimer).

DLF: Are there players you would point to as having higher value in a best ball format compared to that of a traditional weekly lineup league? Have you noticed any larger patterns?

Mike: The biggest bump as a whole is the guys you would never want to have to start in a typical league (QB2s, timeshare RBs, TE2/3’s, and those boring WRs). Patriots RBs are actually not bad in this format, you don’t have to worry about them oversleeping and missing games, you can just enjoy that random 4 TD game, or when Shane Vereen was in NE you were fine with his 1 catch games. QBs like Andy Dalton and Eli Manning get a nice bump as you don’t care about those weeks they throw 3 picks and 0 TDs, just enjoy the weeks they do the opposite. TEs are probably the most random since they are so TD dependent, just getting any that get targets and hope for those random TDs!

The biggest bump overall is late round WRs that are just roster cloggers in normal leagues, guys like Justin Hunter, Cecil Shorts, Mohamed Sanu, and Eddie Royal. Just draft them at the end of your roster last year and enjoy those random games of 15+ points, but don’t worry about those games where they get 3 or less.

DLF: Having done a dynasty best ball startup this offseason, did you notice some of those strategies transition over or did you have to change your entire mindset?

Mike:  The typical dynasty basics carried straight over, but all the strategies I mentioned above do as well. Quarterbacks and TEs moved up a bit in a dynasty best-ball, but the top and mid-tier talent stays about the same as a regular dynasty league. In the league (MFL10ThatNeverEnds) we are in, there are no in-season waivers so having 2 or 3 good QBs is huge. The main difference is if you are trying to compete you can’t afford many “projects” like everyone’s favorite Christine Michael since that roster spot could be scoring points in any given week. I drafted my team as a competitive but dynasty relevant team, going with Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy, and Gio Bernard, but also getting Marques Colston and Dwayne Bowe who were dirt cheap but should put up some numbers for me.

DLF: Who do you see as an asset in best ball leagues among the rookie wide receivers for 2015? Is there a receiver you are seeing as a long-term asset?

Mike:  I have been drafting a few rookie WRs early on in MFL10s, but trying to stick with the high end guys and not too many shares. I’ve drafted Kevin White three times, at an average of 115 (currently going in the mid 70’s. Along with White, I have two of Devante Parker and [inlinead]one share of Dorial Green-Beckham, along with the risk like RBs of getting drafted and buried on a depth chart, rookie WRs can be more hit or miss in general (2014 being the big exception as we all know). I’ve been so behind on rookies this year for some reason, so I was just waiting for The Orange Report (TheFFGhost on DLF) to really get into the rookies in depth and get ready for all my drafts (and more MFL10s). Amari Cooper has been in the 60’s since day 1 of the MFL10 season, and so hard to pull the trigger at that price. It’s obviously hard not to love White and Cooper, with the one not landing in Oakland maybe getting the nod! I’d love to give more info, but I’d just be talking out of my ass and really The Orange Report is so good!

DLF: You are a Patriots fan. They need a receiver. Play a little game of matchmaker and tell me who would be a good fit there among the rookies?

Mike:  First things first, I HOPE they do not take a WR at all; they for the life of them cannot draft and develop a WR. Their best drafted WR was taken as a QB (Julian Edelman), need I say more? But IF they drafted a WR and would realistically be there at the end of the 1^st or maybe even the 2^nd, it would have to be Devin Funchess (if he goes late 2^nd). I could just see Belichick using him as a hybrid WR/TE, with Brady at his best in the fast paced no-huddle offense just dinking and dunking down the field, with Rob Gronkowski, Edelman, and Funchess creating matchup nightmares! The one thing (if the Pats take a WR) is not take a burner, unless they get the 2^nd coming of Randy Moss, the Pats aren’t going back to that deep threat offense of 2007.

DLF: Let’s see if I can get the comments to light up again with this question. Are you taking Todd Gurley as your rookie 1.01 or do you prefer one of the receivers in this class?

Mike:  I think if the dynasty is best-ball then he is a slam dunk number one pick, but in a traditional dynasty it is still a tossup between him and the 2 WRs (White/Cooper). I think this is going to change dramatically on landing spots. Gurley landing in a prime spot would be hard to pass on him, same with White and Cooper (hint, Oakland is NOT a good spot for anyone). I still need to do more homework on the rookies though, which has caused me to not draft too many of them in MFL10s so far.

DLF: There is a lot of discussion around who are the next backs after Gurley. Who do you have two through five and is there one you are targeting often based on draft price?

Mike: In no particular order (I mean so much depends on landing spot) I do like Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Mike Davis, and T.J. Yeldon. I am concerned about Yeldon and his workload in college, but when you are drafting a RB, you are hoping for 3-4 great years, with a back like Frank Gore being the exception. Like I said above, consult The Orange Report for a ton of great info, as I have been somewhat lazy this year on rookies. Would hate to give all the great DLF readers some bad information.

DLF: Is there a rookie running back you think could be a better best ball asset? I feel like Tevin Coleman is a possibility. How about you?

Mike: This may sound like a cop out, but so much depends on the team that drafts them, especially for year one production. With so many teams in need of a RB this year; it seems that more than in past years the landing spot is huge. That said, I could see Duke Johnson put some PPR points on the right team and Yeldon could be a TD guy in the right spot. With so many possible good running backs this year, it’s hard NOT to let the landing spot really guide you or at the very least break a tie.

DLF: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota? That’s it, simple question.

Mike:  I don’t want either, but if I had to pick it will be Winston. As long as he isn’t a 100% idiot (which is going to be hard for him to do) he will have a good chance with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins right out of the gate. Mariota could end up on the Jets or another really bad spot. Now in MFL10s I am not touching either really short of a 3^rd QB in a very late pick if my other 2 QBs aren’t very good.

DLF: Let’s talk a few free agency moves. Anyone you see as being undervalued as a result of their move? Anyone overvalued?

Mike: The big names that jump out to me for either moving or from others moving are Jimmy Graham, Colston, Bowe, Andre Johnson, and C.J. Spiller. Jimmy will do fine in Seattle and in MFL10s dropped almost a full round from pick 18 to 28, I think he can put up enough good games to hit that value. Unless the Saints draft three WRs, I see Colston having a pretty decent year; unfortunately his price has caught up to this, going from 185 to 135 and not being the value he once was. Bowe might be my favorite cheap WR in MFL10s, having a price tag of mid-16^th round (and can easily drop anywhere after that) and he HAS to be able to get at least 1 TD this year, even in Cleveland. Andre Johnson is probably a touch overpriced at a 6.1 (round) ADP, while I do love his landing spot, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Indy and just don’t see him getting the TDs with all the talks of him playing underneath. Finally C.J. Spiller with an ADP of 5.5 (round) is a great value with how New Orleans has used the receiving back in the past, nothing else needs to be said there!

DLF: Of the veterans who moved this offseason, who are you buying between Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, and Stevie Johnson?

Mike: From a value perspective I like Stevie the best, but if offered one of the three at the same cost, I probably go Andre, he could have 2-3 solid PPR years with luck. In MFL10s it’s hard not to love Gore, with his chance of getting a lot of TD chances. In MFL10s, Andre (65) and Gore (52) do not come cheap, but Stevie is going almost undrafted (203) and could end up as the WR2 in San Diego!

DLF: Is there anyone you expect a major leap from in 2015?

Mike:  I will skip the obvious ones of Hyde, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Matthews, and maybe even Kenny Stills, but I am going with a handful of TEs; Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, and ASJ. Just ask Mike from FantasyThrowdown about my love of TEs (I routinely did two TE games on his site). Ertz is the most obvious one (well depending on what QB starts in Philly), but I think Eifert will finally take that next step with Jermaine Gresham (most likely) gone, and Rudolph will benefit greatly from year 2 of Teddy Bridgewater. ASJ will be helped a lot with Winston (potentially) at the helm (they do say that rookie QBs love their TEs) and with Evans/VJax getting a lot of attention.

DLF: One more Patriots question (technically two): Who starts at running back week 1? Any chance they keep it through the season?

Mike: Define start? You could easily make the case for LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray, Tyler Gaffney, and to a lesser extent Brandon Bolden, with the new Vereen role going to Travaris Cadet and/or James White, add in a rookie potential as well! It seems like even more so than in years past (if that was possible) I’m not buying (just holding) any Pats RB I have (I have Gaffney and White in some leagues) and really only touching any of them in best-ball leagues (and if dirt cheap). The answer to who will be the starter for the season, it’s probably some guy not on the roster now and no one (not even Ryan McDowell) knows exists.

DLF: I will get you out on this one. Favorite DLF podcast host?

Mike: Probably a tie between Eric (however you want to spell it today) and Karl, with a slight nod to Eric. I will admit that I haven’t listened in a bit. I generally listen starting around the draft and then a lot during the season as well.

DLF: Mike, this has been great. Thanks for the insight on a variety of topics. Good luck on second place in our league next year.

You can find Mike on Twitter at @MikeMar05 and purchase his MFL10 tool here.

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