2015 IDP Scheme Changes

Steve Wyremski

worrilow

One of the most important IDP actions to monitor throughout the off-season is scheme changes. They can have a huge impact on the IDP landscape, present opportunities for value on the waiver wire or destroy IDP stud value.

For example, when the Houston Texans switched from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 base scheme in 2011, it resulted in an IDP position switch for Mario Williams from defensive end to outside linebacker. As many of us know, that destroyed Williams’ IDP value in tackle-heavy leagues as, generally, outside linebackers are tough to depend on in that format.

On the flipside, a switch from a 3-4 to 4-3 base scheme flips an outside linebacker to defensive end, which could result in a big spike in a player’s IDP value given the handful of studs at end.

There are a number of IDP impacting changes thus far in 2015. These scheme changes are another example why taking IDP studs early in a startup draft may not be the best strategy. Especially since philosophy changes have a significant and immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball, much more so than on the offensive side.

Here is my take on how things are falling into place thus far:

Atlanta Falcons

With the firing of head coach Mike Smith and the hiring of Seahawks’ former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, the team will make the switch to a 4-3 base defense. This change shouldn’t be taken lightly. Quinn was instrumental in building the Legion of Boom. We may begin to see new faces atop the IDP rankings in the coming years. In the opening meeting with his players this offseason, Quinn immediately set the tone. Each player received a tape highlighting where he needs to improve his game (in addition to where he excels) – talk about accountability.

The Falcons made some moves in free agency, but expect the addition of an edge rusher with the eighth pick in the NFL draft. Reportedly, Quinn is particularly focused on studying those prospects given the team’s glaring need. Whoever the Falcons bring in via the draft (e.g., Dante Fowler), he’s likely to be a top IDP rookie draft option.

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Ra’Shede Hageman, DT

One of the most underrated impacts of this change, Hageman now becomes an attractive long-term prospect in defensive tackle required leagues. He’s in a situation many hoped he would be prior to the 2014 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, his value was muted as a 3-4 defensive end given the role he was expected to play, but a shift to a 4-3 defensive tackle should mean long-term production. He still needs to develop as he was raw coming into the league, but Hageman will be a building block for the Falcons’ defensive line.

Adrian Clayborn, DE

The Falcons need edge rushers. Prior to free agency, they possessed mediocre talent on the edge. Clayborn was once viewed as a cornerstone IDP defensive end after a solid rookie season, but injuries plagued his Buccaneers’ career and he’s virtually faded away across the IDP community. The new location could spring a rebirth. The situation is prime for Clayborn despite the injury concerns. He has a DE1 ceiling.

Paul Worrilow, MLB

Worrilow has been productive over the last two years amassing 163 solo tackles and 127 assists as an LB1 (as a starter) in tackle heavy leagues. This production was all circumstantial and based on volume. It had little to do with talent, which is concerning for this long-term value. Simply put – he’s an overachiever.

With the new coaching staff and infusion of talent via the free agency (Justin Durant on the weakside; Brooks Reed on the strongside), there will be significant competition at linebacker heading into 2015. Right now, Worrilow sits atop the depth chart in the middle, but don’t be surprised to see another body added through the draft. I’d be concerned as a Worrilow owner, especially given his struggles in coverage and marginal talent. Even if he keeps the starting spot, it’s unlikely Quinn will tolerate his lack of coverage skills.

Prince Shembo / Joplo Bartu, LB

These two are currently out of place in the scheme and are likely to be faced with various hurdles for snaps. Shembo had IDP promise as an inside linebacker in the Falcons’ 3-4 in throughout 2014. However, he’ll likely be forced into a one-dimensional pass rushing role as an outside linebacker in the Falcons’ new defense. He’s a capable pass rusher as an outside linebacker and is likely to maintain a role in that capacity limiting his IDP value. Bartu is in a similar boat and is likely to be nothing more than a role player in 2015.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are changing schemes yet again with the hiring of Rex Ryan and the exit of Jim Schwartz. With the coaching changes, the Bills will shift back to a 3-4 base defense. The Bills actually ran a 3-4 defense similar Ryan’s in 2013 with defensive coordinator Mike Pettine so that is a good reference point for production with many of the players. Rex does play a unique version of the scheme and is a lot more aggressive, but it’s a fair proxy.

Preston Brown, ILB

With the trade of Kiko Alsono to the Eagles, Brown is the top starter in the middle of the Bills line-backing group. He’s likely to play the same role that Ray Lewis and Davis Harris did for Ryan. Brown showed promise as a rookie and should continue to flourish under Ryan’s tutelage.

Nigel Bradham, ILB

As of right now, it would appear he’s situated to play the ‘Jack’ role inside. This is the same role Bart Scott played with the Jets and Ravens. Keep in mind the Jack’s job is to be the trash-man inside. His job is to take on blockers at the point of attack, shed and allow the Mike inside linebacker (Preston Brown) to make plays. So, the production ceiling isn’t as high as the Mike (likely LB3), but it’s a starting linebacker spot.

If the Bills don’t add another body early in the draft, Bradham will see a nice healthy value bump for IDP purposes. He’s worth a speculative play pre-draft because of it. One thing to consider if you’re interested in making a speculative play is some believe Bradham’s versatility and ability at the point of attack may have been the catalyst to Ryan pulling the trigger on the Alonso/LeSean McCoy deal. I believe there’s some validity to that speculation.

Mario Williams, DE/OLB

The key with Williams will be to watch his position designation. The fear is he switches from defensive end to outside linebacker. However, Terrell Suggs played in Ryan’s defense in Baltimore and maintained the defensive end title. For context, the reason Suggs maintained the title, and why Williams is likely to as well, is because Ryan’s scheme often positions the outside linebacker down on the line with his hand in the dirt (4-3 under for you Madden fans and NFL geeks).

Marcell Dareus / Kyle Williams, DT/DE

The switch back to a 3-4 defense will cap Dareus’ top-end of potential production as he’ll likely play nose tackle. He’s better suited to be a 4-3 defensive tackle given his disruptive ability, but nose tackle isn’t new territory for Dareus. If you want to get an idea as to where his production may land in 2015, look back to 2013. This scheme change is a downgrade for Dareus with the likelihood of a decrease in production.

Kyle Williams is likely to shift over to defensive end and play the three technique. Owners should monitor his position eligibility.

The above is speculation on my part given 2013 and the type of players Williams and Dareus are. I have not seen anything from the coaching staff specifying what their roles may be yet.

Jerry Hughes, OLB/DE

Still tabbed as a defensive end over on MFL, it’d be shocking if he maintains that designation through August. He’ll presumably be a pass rushing specialist as an outside linebacker capping his IDP value. If you own him and can ship him off, now is the time to do it.

Chicago Bears

Another 4-3 to 3-4 base switch with the hiring of Vic Fangio to run the Bears’ defense for new head coach John Fox. This will have some big IDP implications.

Jared Allen, OLB/DE

Allen is likely to shift to outside linebacker. That will likely make him irrelevant in tackle heavy leagues. He’s never played outside linebacker in his career, so there’s a chance he completely busts in ‘15. He notoriously refused to play it when the Vikings were reportedly considering a change to a 3-4 base scheme. After a lackluster season in ‘15, the position change may be the dagger to Allen’s IDP relevance. If he can’t make it from a two-point stance, he’ll become a situational pass-rusher. This move isn’t good for Allen in any way.

Christian Jones, ILB/OLB

Many believe Jones is best fit to play outside in the Bears’ 3-4. I disagree and recent reports from Bears’ beat writers suggest he’s an inside linebacker option. Sure, he may rush from the outside much like Fangio used Ahmad Brooks in San Francisco, but he has a great shot at starting inside. If you want a potential breakout player for 2015, it’s Jones. He was originally projected to be a middle round pick in the NFL draft, but went undrafted due to off field issues. So, the natural talent is there. He also played well as a starter over the last three weeks of ’14 finishing with 25 tackles and two sacks over that period. He’ll compete with Mason Foster and Jon Bostic for snaps, but given his natural talent level, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start and ultimately run this defense. He’s more athletic than either of those guys and better in coverage.

Jon Bostic, ILB

Bostic may be the odd man out with the addition of Mason Foster and Jones’ coverage ability. Fangio’s linebackers are typically competent in coverage. While Bostic played in a 3-4 in college, I believe his coverage limitations will cap his snaps.

Denver Broncos

As the Broncos’ new defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips brings an aggressive 3-4 base defense which will push DeMarcus Ware back to a two-point stance.

Von Miller / Demarcus Ware, OLB

Miller will transition from a 4-3 strongside linebacker to a 3-4 outside rush linebacker. He moves from one IDP production capped position to another. With Phillips’ aggressive scheme, I envision sacks in the 15 range, though.

As far as Ware, he’ll move back to outside linebacker. He played the same spot for Phillips in Dallas over a four year period during which he had his best season as a pro (69 solos, 27.5 tackles for a loss, and 20 sacks). His sack numbers have a good chance to return to double digits in ‘15.

Brandon Marshall, ILB

Marshall will transition to inside linebacker and should continue to perform at a LB1/high LB2 level in tackle heavy leagues. The off-season Lisfranc surgery is noteworthy and the recovery should be monitored to ensure he’s on track for camp and the season.

Danny Trevathan / Steven Johnson, ILB

If healthy, Trevathan would be the favorite to start next to Marshall inside, but last year’s season was a train wreck. After three knee injuries to the same leg, there’s concern if Trevathan will be healthy for 2015. I’m still targeting him if he’s cheap given the potential, but the Broncos are reportedly interested in adding an inside linebacker via the draft given the plethora of injuries at linebacker.

If the Broncos add a rookie linebacker, Trevathan may only play a situational role and Johnson would find himself in a log-jam and limited snaps.

Washington Redskins

While not a true scheme change, with the Redskins’ hiring of Joe Barry as their defensive coordinator, head coach Jay Gruden said the scheme won’t be a two-gap, but more shoot-the-gap. Compared to ’14, this will mean a more aggressive scheme with more blitz packages and man-to-man coverage in the secondary.

Ryan Kerrigan, OLB

Simply put, more blitzing will mean higher sack numbers which should result in increased IDP value in both tackle heavy and big-play leagues.

Bashaud Breeland, CB

An underrated impact of this change will be for Breeland. After an excellent rookie season, Breeland should see more tackle opportunities. With Barry rushing the passer more, that’ll put presser on the secondary in single man-to-man coverage, which should result in higher tackle numbers.

Detroit Lions

There have been some rumblings the Lions will shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 with the exit of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley coupled with the trade for Haloti Ngata. However, Coach Jim Caldwell shot down the speculation a few weeks ago at the NFL owners meeting saying, “it’s not going to look any different than it did last year. We were extremely multiple, we did a little bit of everything, and I think the same thing will happen this fall.” This news only strengthens Ngata’s fantasy value as a 4-3 defensive tackle in tackle required leagues and maintains Ziggy Ansah’s value trajectory.

The draft will undoubtedly bring new competition to several teams and have an impact on IDP leagues – we’ll bring you all the analysis in the upcoming weeks.

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