Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One
With the amount of time until the NFL Draft kicks off now a matter of hours instead of weeks you can feel the excitement in the air anytime you talk with a football fan. That excitement is multiplied many times over if the fan happens to be an avid dynasty player like all of you. There are few times more exciting! A lot has happened since the combine back in February. There have been pro days, news reports, further evaluation and of course the hype train.
In order to help give you an idea of what all of this has done, I’m back with 11 other writers to bring you another mock draft. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish has that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. At this point the only piece of the puzzle remaining is the all-important landing spot for all of these players. Some will undoubtedly shoot up draft boards while others will tumble down. Here is one last look without that last piece of the puzzle. Keep in mind, we all have our favorites who we like more than most right now, so there will be some disagreement on where a player should have gone, but that is part of the fun!
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong, especially at this early stage in the process.
Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one. The top five or six picks seem to be mostly locked in at this point, but things are all over the board for the tail end of round one. Let’s take a look!
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
1.01 – Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
Ghost’s thoughts: Some seasons the top running backs are extremely quick, other seasons the top backs are power rushers who are tough to bring down. Gurley mixes both of these attributes and sprinkles in a few more interesting qualities to make for one of the most complete running backs to come out of the draft in recent memory.
My thoughts: Definitely no surprise here. Gurley has been the top pick in every mock draft I have done. While I don’t think he will be the universal first pick in every league due to the devaluing of the position, I think he’s going to be the 1.01 pick in the vast majority of leagues. I still don’t think I’m sold on him being the ones in a generation talent some people proclaim, but he’s going to be a rock solid RB1 for many years. Just don’t sell the farm to pick him up. I’ve seen him going in the early second round in startups as the second or third running back off the board. He’s still a rookie and there is still a lot of risk. Just look back at some of the praise about Trent Richardson heading into the draft. It will sound very familiar.
1.02 – Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
Scott’s thoughts: Safe as any rookie pick can get. Cooper should be a productive fantasy option for a long time. He maybe not an elite talent but is still a solid fantasy prospect.
My thoughts: I definitely agree with Scott when it comes to calling Cooper as safe as any rookie can get. His ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other receivers in this draft, but I think his floor is by far the highest. Worst case, Cooper is a WR2 for the next ten years. He has the talent to be successful with pretty much any quarterback, so he’s going to be less dependent on the situation than most of the other receivers. Even in a great system, I don’t think he’ll ever be elite, but he can be a back end WR1 very easily. He’s the ideal selection for any team drafting early who just can’t afford to miss with their rookie pick.
1.03 – Kevin White, WR West Virginia
Jeff’s thoughts: 1.03 is the easiest selection in the draft, as long as the selecting coach is not in dire need of a running back. The top two players in this draft on my board are Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper. While many still covet White over Cooper, I do not share that opinion. Cooper’s length of production, savvy route running and intelligence are far too perfect for today’s NFL, over that of a Kevin-come-lately with a single year of production. All things being equal, I would entertain White over Cooper based on size and speed dynamic IF White had at least one more year of similar production. That not being the case, I will not risk the higher ceiling of White over a selection of the more polished and NFL-ready Cooper. At 1.03, the selection makes itself. For the coach needing running back help, a selection of Gordon can be entertained, especially if White falls to the Raiders or, potentially, the Jets. Both situations I’m not particularly fond of.
My thoughts: I think Jeff said pretty much everything which needs to be said. There are several concerns with White which make him the clear number two receiver in this draft class for me, behind Cooper. White’s single year of relevance combined with him still being relatively raw makes me a little concerns about him. I view him as being much more situationally dependent as well. The ceiling is definitely there, but the risk is higher as well. He’s a great third pick, but I can’t get behind him being a top two selection.
1.04 – Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
Doug’s thoughts: I normally think Gordon should go at two or three, so I was pleased to get him at four. Everyone loves his speed and by all reports his hands have improved since the end of the season. If he goes to a San Diego/Dallas scenario, it’s not inconceivable he could push his way up to the second spot.
My thoughts: I’m a Big Ten guy, so it goes without saying, I love Gordon. I still think there is a chance that in five years we look back at this draft class and say Gordon was the best running back to come out of it. He is dynamic with the ball in his hands. He has the size and skill set to be the rare bell cow running back in the NFL. I’m not concerned at all about his 40 yard dash time just like I wasn’t worried about LeSean McCoy’s time. Gordon has the vison, instincts, quickness and balance to be special at the next level.
1.05 – DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
Nathan’s thoughts: Going with the safer option here, Parker is a playmaker with WR1 upside and a pretty safe floor IMO. Seeing his landing spot will be fun, especially if he lands with former college teammate, Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota.
My thoughts: People are routinely forgetting about Parker because he didn’t wow at the combine. That’s a huge mistake in my book. Parker dominated at Louisville for several years. He has natural hands, great body control, ideal size and superb instincts. He needs to refine his route running and needs to get a little less linear, but he’s going to be great at the next level. Considering you’re able to pick him up for the fifth or sixth pick in your draft, he could be the biggest steal of your rookie draft.
1.06 – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
Brian’s thoughts: Boom/bust pick. Has an incredibly high ceiling and falling to the back half of round one could mean a great landing spot. Green-Beckham has shown signs of elite production but also has not played a game in over a year. Has elite physical tools and I look forward to watching his transition to the NFL.
My thoughts: DGB scares me.. a lot. I’ve seen people use Dez Bryant as a comparison, but that really, really isn’t fair to Dez. Dez had some maturity and authority issues after being raised by a drug dealer/addict. Imagine that! He wasn’t a criminal though. DGB has multiple drug offenses, burglary suspicions, assault charges and the list goes on. At that point I don’t even know if talent matters anymore. He’s completely off my draft board unless he ends up on a very few select teams. He’s going to need a strong coach and some very solid veteran leaders if he’s going to avoid going the Josh Gordon route.
1.07 – Duke Johnson, RB Miami
Dan’s thoughts: The seventh pick is the least desirable position in any rookie draft. Had this been a real draft I would have either traded up to get a top-six talent or trade down to acquire another pick. Since that isn’t an option here, I decided to take the player I most wanted to write about. Johnson has risen up my rankings throughout the off-season due to his incredible quickness and eye popping vision and cutback skills along with his ability to contribute to the passing game. With his relatively small stature (5’-9”, 209 pounds), many question if he can handle a fulltime job. I’m not one of them. He’s third among running backs available in this draft and if he lands in a place where he can contribute immediately like Dallas, San Diego, Jacksonville or Atlanta, he’s easily worthy of the seventh pick in rookie drafts.
My thoughts: Pick number seven is a really tough draw in this draft. I’m sure most owners of the pick are wishing they lost one more game last year to get into the top few picks. I think in most drafts right now, you would see Ajayi in this draft slot, so I was surprised to see Dan go with Johnson. He’s definitely electric on the field, but I’m one of those folks who question if Johnson can be the fulltime bell cow for an NFL team. He’s going to struggle if asked to run between the tackles or if he ends up in a power blocking scheme. I think he’s the lightning to someone else’s thunder. The injury history is also very concerning.
1.08 – Jay Ajayi, RB Boise State
Eric’s thoughts: Ajayi seems like a guy who’s slipping “just because.” He might not be the sexiest pick, but he’s a three-down running back who should be off the board in the draft’s first two rounds. Perhaps people are getting scared off of his “knee injury,” but I remember hearing similar injury concerns about Eddie Lacy two years ago. This is a great spot for the rookie RB3.
My thoughts: Once you get past Gurley and Gordon in this draft class, the next few running backs are all very similar. They have some parts of their game you love, but they all have some glaring weaknesses as well. Ajayi has the size and skill set to be the guy for an NFL team. He also has some issues with ball security and dancing in the backfield. More than a few running backs have found themselves on the bench because they don’t hit the holes quickly enough. He’s a great pick in the middle of the first round, but keep in mind there is quite a bit of risk with any of these running backs.
1.09 – Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
Eric’s thoughts: I’m a huge fan of Strong’s. He has size, speed, explosion and strong hands. His game is well suited for the NFL and could be an absolute monster if he lands in the right spot. Like Ghost notes in the ORANGE Report, he tends to round off routes and has the occasional mental lapse on easy catches, but that’s easily coachable. He’d look pretty good in Baltimore with Joe Flacco.
My thoughts: I’m a little surprised Strong slid to the ninth pick in this mock. I’m really hoping he slides in a few of my drafts because I’m picking late in pretty much all of them! Strong has everything you want in a receiver from the size to the athleticism and the body control. He’s still a little raw when it comes to his routes, but most receivers are at this point in their career. With some coaching, the routes will improve as will the concentration. I’m really hoping he continues to slide because I would love to have him on my rosters.
1.10 – Breshad Perriman, WR Central Florida
My thoughts: This was a tough pick for me to make. Without knowing the eventual landing spots for any of the players, I found it really tough to pick a running back at this point. I think running backs are very dependent on their situation and which teams they land on will help shake out the extremely large cluster of running backs there currently seems to be between the middle of the first and the middle of the second. I almost went Tevin Coleman here, but I just couldn’t pull a trigger on a running back right now. Plus, I wanted to see where he would get drafted if I didn’t take him. I also almost went with Nelson Agholor with this pick.
As for Perriman, I went with him because he’s the ultimate swing for the fences pick in the late first. He’s this year’s Cody Latimer, not only because he has the size and speed NFL teams crave but because even though he was injured for the combine his stock just keeps rising. The hype is getting a little bit out of control for Perriman right now. He has issues with his routes and has very inconsistent hands. He’s a very risky pick but has a ton of upside. If you’re feeling like gambling, take a shot in the late first but I wouldn’t go any earlier than this pick for him. I might not even go this early once we know the teams.
1.11 – TJ Yeldon, RB Alabama
Jeff’s thoughts: This isn’t the first time I’ve taken Yeldon in one of Jacob’s mocks. Of course, last time I waited until the 2.03 to do it, and if this were a real deal rookie draft, I’d try and move back a few picks before taking my boo. Why all the affection for the former Alabama RB? It comes down to three key attributes: his exceptionally quick feet, ability to adjust his path decisively and without slowing (thanks to great hips), and elite vision. Throw those three things in a pot, add Yeldon’s physical size, stir, and you have a young Arian Foster. Like Foster, Yeldon will need to end up in the right offense (zone blocking scheme) to maximize his effectiveness. Of course, there are a couple of warts, but I’ll let Jacob poo-poo me with those.
My thoughts: Jeff and I have gone back and forth a few times on Yeldon. I don’t dislike Yeldon, I just don’t see an elite running back when I look at him. Jeff sees Arian Foster. I see more shades of Alfred Morris. Yeldon does have great vision and some nice moves at the second level, but I don’t think he plays as big as he measures on the scales. I am also very concerned about his pass protection skills. I think he’s most likely to be a two down running back in the NFL, but the team he gets drafted by will help us to figure that out.
1.12 – Nelson Agholor, WR USC
George’s thoughts: In a perfect world, I would trade down a few spots and still land Agholor but I’m happy with this pick nonetheless. After Amari Cooper, Agholor may be the most polished route runner in this draft and has shown to be deadly with the ball in his hands (he is an electric returner and primarily played running back in high school). He is a very intelligent player and connects well with his quarterback by being a reliable receiver, obvious with his 78% catch rate in 2014. There are issues with his separation against physical corners and overall playing strength. Even if he ends up as a slot receiver, which has been suggested by several draft analysts, today’s NFL features a bevy of receivers who thrive in the NFL (and in fantasy). Agholor shares many of the same traits as Emmanuel Sanders and should be a player that thrives in PPR leagues.
My thoughts: I know George said he wanted to trade back a few spots, but I’m not sure Agholor would still be there. I’ve seen him creeping close to and into the first round in a few different mock drafts recently. I really like Agholor, but my primary concern for him is his ability to play outside in the NFL. He has struggled against the bigger and stronger cornerbacks which are common place in the NFL. I think he’s mostly likely to play in the slot which makes him extremely dependent on the system of the team he ends up playing for. If he ends up on a good team, he could be Sanders. If it is a bad offense, he could max out as a WR3 or WR4. Situation will be huge for Agholor.
That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with the later rounds very soon!
[/am4show]
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
