Who is Niles Paul?
Less than a week from the draft, NFL free agency seems like a very long time ago. Only a month and a half ago, high-profile tight ends like Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron signed contracts with new teams. Another tight end who garnered interest from several teams, albeit with significantly less fanfare, was Niles Paul. Although he ultimately re-signed with the Redskins, could his dynasty outlook have been rejuvenated along with his contract?
The wide receiver turned tight end chose football over track and basketball after starring (that is, being one of the top prospects in the country) in all three at high school in Omaha, Nebraska. After leading the West team in receiving yards at the U.S. Army All-American game, Paul committed to the University of Nebraska.
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As a freshman in 2007, Paul spent most of his time on the sidelines with just one reception and some snaps on special teams. He became relevant the following season, catching 23 passes for 214 yards as a wide receiver while serving as Nebraska’s primary kickoff returner, but it was his junior season in 2009 in which Paul really emerged – he turned his 40 receptions into nearly 800 yards, averaging 19.9 yards per catch and four touchdowns.
He regressed statistically as a senior, hauling in 39 passes for 516 yards and a touchdown, but finished his Nebraska career as one of the most productive receivers and kick returners in school history. Among other awards, following the season he was named an All-Big 12 pick as a wide receiver as well as a return specialist.
At the 2011 NFL Combine, the 6’1”, 225-pound Paul competed as a wide receiver but how well he did is a matter of perspective. Relative to his peers at wide receiver, Paul’s 24 bench reps were second only to Greg Little and his 4.46 40-yard dash placed him fourteenth at the position. However, with his shift to the tight end position comes a much better performance in retrospect. His 40-yard dash bested Rob Housler’s 4.55 seconds for top at the position, and he would have finished in the top six in the broad jump, vertical jump, 20-yard shuttle, three-cone drill and bench reps as well.
Whether the Redskins envisioned Paul as a tight end on draft day is unclear, but they selected him in the fifth round (155th overall). Seven tight ends and nineteen wide receivers were selected before Paul.
With abundant versatility, Paul’s greatest strength is his ability to create mismatches as a receiver against linebackers and defensive backs. He can use his size and strength to push off from defenders, use his wide catch radius to receive a pass then burn past would-be tacklers. He can work either the middle of the field or on the outside, allowing coaches to move him around and get creative with personnel including DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed.
Paul’s versatility may be somewhat hindered by his raw route-running, limiting his route tree at both positions. Small hands have led to issues with drops, and though he has a good combination of size and speed he may have issues down the road maintaining tight end bulk on his frame. Beyond these issues, Paul’s downside could all be psychological. He was arrested for a DUI in 2009 and underage drinking (leading to public indecency) in 2010, and a reputation for poor work ethic and concentration lapses on the field. He needs to continue his maturation to be consistently successful.
Though he only caught two passes in his rookie season, Paul made the 53-man roster and was given snaps right out of the gate. He went on to contribute primarily on special teams in his first three seasons, catching only 14 passes on 28 targets for 228 yards and a touchdown in 44 games. However, following the 2011 season it was decided to move Paul to tight end after coaches and teammates made comparisons of his skillset to that of Shannon Sharpe and Aaron Hernandez. This partially came out of necessity with Chris Cooley going on injured reserve and Fred Davis getting suspended. Paul also worked as a fullback alongside occasional TD vulture Darrel Young.
The final season of Paul’s rookie contract proved to be his most fantasy relevant, and consequently good timing for impending free agency. After Reed was injured in week one, Paul proceeded to catch 21 passes for 313 yards and a touchdown in his first four games. Reed’s return in week six, and ability to stay on the field the rest of the season, led to Paul being limited to three or fewer receptions in every game from then on out. Paul finished with 39 receptions on 52 targets (an excellent 75% catch rate) for 507 yards and one touchdown. If there was any question his fantasy relevance was tied to Reed, this puts them to rest.
Turning 26 in August, Paul garnered interest around the NFL this off-season as a free agent (particularly from the tight end-needy Falcons), but chose to re-sign with Washington for $10 million over three years. Reed is signed through 2016 while the only other potentially fantasy relevant tight end on the roster, Logan Paulsen, has an expiring contract after the 2015 season. Chase Dixon and Je’Ron Hamm are nothing more than roster depth.
With only average blocking abilities and the wide receiver background, Paul is on the field to catch passes. He was scooped up quickly in most leagues after week one of the 2014 season, and posted solid tight end statistics until Reed returned. At that point, he was relegated to the bench. However, with a new contract and coaching staff that inherited (rather than acquired) both players the Redskins could enter the 2015 season with more of a competition at tight end.
With an injury prone starter in front of him, the chance of winning the job outright, and ability to line up in a variety of formations, Paul should be owned in tight end-premium leagues and leagues that roster over 300 players (twelve teams with 25-man rosters).
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