IDP Dynasty Duel: Defensive Backs
We are picking up our IDP rankings debate in round three, which covers the defensive backs. In round one, Eric Breeze gave some compelling reasons to move three linebackers in my rankings. In round two, I came back with a few defensive lineman that Breeze had ranked too low. We are tied up as we move into our final round. Our personal rankings per position from mid-April are in parentheses.
Kam Chancellor, SS SEA
Coleman (10): Wow, I thought I was low on Chancellor with him at ten, but Breeze took it to a whole new level with his ranking outside the top 25. I will admit Chancellor is a bigger name than he is player. Also the opportunities in Seattle are not outstanding. On the other hand only 23% of the top 30 defensive backs repeat the next year in top 30 fantasy scoring. Chancellor has been a top 30 scorer for the past three years. Chancellor may be overrated, but his ability to stay a top 30 scoring DB is rare.
Breeze (25+): Chancellor is a fantastic NFL strong safety. He is crucial to the Seahawks success on the defensive side of the ball. For IDP, however, I’m just not buying him. He is in my top 30, but someone in my league will always like him more than I do. He has consistently put up very average numbers in IDP since Bobby Wagner has manned the middle in Seattle. Wagner eats tackles and the Hawks don’t allow enough completions to fill the tackle category in the stat sheet for their DBs. The only more overrated DB in IDP for me is his partner in crime…
Earl Thomas, FS SEA
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Coleman (3): In the interest of full transparency, I do not own any stock in Thomas or Chancellor. I just do not believe in investing a lot in defensive backs because their fantasy scoring does not normally correlate well to their true NFL value. The scoring is hard to predict and the best scorers sometimes are not actually good enough in real life to stay on the field. If I was forced to pick a DB to keep on my roster for the next five years who I had to start every week, it would be hard to not choose Thomas. He does not fill the box score, but he has graded out as a top five safety in coverage the past two years. He is also an above average tackler. I understand his price does not equal his production, but how many defensive backs can you really be confident will be starters for four more years?
Breeze (25+): Earl is in the discussion for Most Valuable Defensive Player in the league not named JJ Watt. He is a total difference maker in real life, but not in IDP. His weekly output is that of a top 30-35 DB. The IDP community that loves Earl Thomas is still bathing in the glory of his first nine games of 2013 – he was fantastic and was the elite DB1 in IDP those contests. However, the rest of his games he is just very average DB waiver wire material. Remember, in those nine games, Seattle defensive starters missed a combined 18 games, so when the Seahawks are playing at optimal levels, Earl Thomas is just not a good IDP option. Thomas in IDP is essentially Alfred Morris in PPR. He plays every game so his total points every year look good. Thomas is a good player who makes highlight plays on ESPN, so people assume he is a great fantasy option,s but his points per game production in fantasy football is MUCH less than his cost.
Barry Church, FS DAL
Breeze (7): I think you called my bluff here and I’m holding 7-2 off suit. Church was fantastic in IDP in 2013, but mainly due to the fact somebody in Dallas had to tackle the ball carrier. The Cowboys Linebacker group is improving and the ball control offense is leading to less tackle opportunities for the defense. I guess I put Church at seven because I really do not know who else to put there. DB is so random from year to year, but I admit that he no longer has the upside to warrant this spot. He will drop in my rankings update. Let somebody else overdraft him hoping for a 2013 repeat.
Coleman (25+): Church graded out negatively at PFF the last two years. He is outside top 30 safeties in coverage and outside the top 40 in tackling efficiency. Church has just been swimming in opportunities. I am fine with him in redraft. I have trouble investing much dynasty capital in a player who could lose his job at any time because he is not very good. Also, Dallas’ front seven has to play reasonably sometime, which would massively cut down on his opportunities.
Da’Norris Searcy, SS TEN
Breeze (9): I think I found my guy to push up to DB7 and honestly, that may not be high enough. Searcy landing in Tennessee is a match made in heaven for IDP. He didn’t score a ton of fantasy points last year, but he also was sharing snaps in Buffalo. On a per snap basis, Searcy scored more points per snap than Morgan Burnett and almost exactly the same as Harrison Smith. Add in the fact that Michael Griffin was a top 5 DB in 2014, Bernard Pollard was a top ten DB in 2013 I think I may boost Searcy into the elite DB tier. Everything points to a HUGE season for him in my opinion.
Coleman (25+): I think I am stuck in 2013 with Searcy. In 2013, he was not a good player and I had high hopes of Duke Williams just taking his job in 2014. Instead, Searcy played stout run defense and was above average in coverage. The opportunity increase in Tennessee playing true strong safety is real. Thanks for the wakeup call on this Breeze. I probably have Duke Williams ranked too high as well.
TJ Ward, SS DEN
Breeze (16): I think this time you called my all-in pre flop and I have pocket twos. Ward is a human missile, but he definitely disappointed last year in Denver. I guess I’m just hoping Wade Phillips blitzes him more frequently. I could bump Ward down a few spots but I believe on twitter I said that after DB10 for me, it’s practically playing darts after drinking 12 beers.
Coleman (25+): Ward has never been great in coverage, but his performance last year was abysmal. He graded out as the 87th out of the 90 safeties who played over 25% of their team’s snaps. He also gave up the most receptions of any safety in 2014. While strong safeties do not need to be incredible coverage, he was a liability out there in 2014. While I like to hang my hat on strong safeties in IDP, this is one player I am no longer willing to bet will stay on the field. With all that being said, I completely agree we already in dart throw territory, so 10 to 15 spots does not matter much.
Antone Bethea, SS SF
Breeze (13): Bethea had a great first year with the 49ers in large part to the injuries at ILB. Well, their ILBs are now healthy, but they are also now retired. He is 30 years old so may not be a very sexy pick in IDP but with DB being such a blind throw, I’m about as confident as you can be that Bethea will put up top 20 DB numbers again this year.
Coleman (25+): Bethea is a good safety and creates a nice amount of fantasy points. My only issue is he will turn 31 before the season starts this year. I have trouble putting someone that old in the top 25 of a position for dynasty. I understand that many stream DB, but I would prefer my top ranked DBs have a potential to be starters for at least three years.
George Iloka, SS CIN
Coleman (8): Iloka is one of the most talented young safeties in the league. He is well rounded and has the ability to play either safety position in an array of different schemes. He is especially outstanding in coverage. On average in 2014, he only gave up one reception per 51 snaps when he was in primary coverage. To put that in perspective, that is the fourth best for any safety since 2010. The opportunities are not there in Cincinnati. Although, he is a free agent in 2016 and could see a major jump in stats with a scenery change. We have belabored the point that DB IDP scoring is a crap shoot. I would prefer to bet on talent and hope opportunity arises because players cannot sign a new contract and get talent.
Breeze (25+): Iloka is a great NFL safety who doesn’t get respect, but in IDP he just doesn’t produce. He has been an every down player for the Bengals each of the last two years, played all 16 regular season games and has never surpassed 75 total tackles. I can find better IDP numbers on waivers.
Robert Blanton, SS MIN
Coleman (11): Blanton is one the best young tackling safeties in the league. He ranked as the second best safety in run stopping and the third best in tackling efficiency according to PFF. His tackling efficiency on passing plays is through the roof. Blanton only missed one tackle the entire year on passing plays. He is also above average in coverage, so I have little doubt about him being able to stay on the field. I love players like Blanton because is actually a good player and creates solid IDP points. Grab Blanton now and happily plug him in as a starter for the next four years.
Breeze (25+) : Swing and a miss by me. He should be in the top 25. He cracked the 100 tackle milestone in only 14 games last year. If the Vikings actually get a decent middle linebacker, will it hurt Blanton, though?
Final Thoughts
Coleman: Defensive backs are incredibly hard to rank because the volatility between years is extremely high. IDP scoring for defensive backs is the least reflective of player’s ability of any of the defensive position. I would call this round a draw. The Searcy and Blanton rankings were the major blows in this round. While one could argue the overall rankings duel was a tie, I think Breeze deserves the overall win. I may have found some talent he missed at defensive line, but he accurately pointed out I was way too low on a few linebackers. I will be training hard over the next month to take down Breeze during our next rankings duel after we add the 2015 rookies. In the meantime, Breeze and I will update our rankings per all these discussions over the next week.
Breeze : Ranking DBs is just so hard to do – there are a few elite DBs and the rest are random. EC and I have very different mindsets about dynasty DB. I play in leagues that start about 30 DB each week combined for all teams, so I am all about fantasy point upside. EC plays in much deeper IDP leagues where it’s much more difficult to find starters since so many players are rostered, so he focuses more on finding players that will be every down players for many years to come. Neither is wrong, just very different so keep that in mind. The biggest thing you should take away from this is DO NOT invest highly into non “elite” DBs. The market is ever changing and something as simple as one addition to their team’s LB corps can change everything for a DB in IDP. I’m glad EC rewarded me victory in this fight because after seeing some of his extensive rookie research I’m already scared for our rematch.
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- IDP Dynasty Debate: Linebackers - March 1, 2017
- IDP Dynasty Debate: Defensive Line - February 18, 2017
- IDP 20/20: Raekwon McMillan - February 17, 2017
