Luck Out

Ryan McDowell

luck

With the completion of the April version of the DLF Dynasty Mock Drafts, there have now been a total of 24 mock drafts held since the dynasty off-season began just before Christmas. Of those 24 mocks, Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck has been selected in the first round in 16 of those, giving him a cumulative off-season ADP of 11.4. As much as I love Luck and the safety net he provides for the foreseeable future, I can’t get behind this pick or Luck as a first round startup pick.

My hesitation to grab Luck with my first pick comes primarily due to the availability of the quarterback position. While it’s almost impossible to find a quarterback who will produce Luck’s fantasy numbers late in your startup draft or off the waiver wire, you can conceivably find a starting caliber quarterback there, while gaining a bigger advantage at another position.

Luck, who was not even the QB1 in fantasy leagues last season, falling about four points shy of Aaron Rodgers’ total, outscored the QB12, Philip Rivers, by around 85 points. For the record, Rivers’ April ADP is 152, coming off the board almost 12 full rounds after Luck in a 12 team draft.

There’s also the fact that most leagues require only one starting quarterback, lessening the value of the position as a whole. While this is also true of the tight end position, I would consider selecting the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski with my first pick. When comparing him to the twelfth highest scoring player at his position (as I did with Luck), we see Gronkowski outscored by 113 points and offering a much more consistency on a weekly basis.

Back to the quarterback position, here’s a look at the top 12 quarterbacks from 2014, including their total points and April dynasty ADP.

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There’s something here for everyone. If you’re building a competitive “win now” team, waiting until the later rounds to grab Rivers, Tom Brady or Tony Romo will get you through the next couple of years. By the time you have a need at quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Rivers will be almost free in many leagues. If you’ve tried to sell any of these players in your dynasty league this year, you know their value is not high.

If you prefer to go the young route, Ryan Tannehill can be had several rounds after Luck, while there are other young signal callers entering the league every year. Do these players have Luck’s upside? Probably not, but opting for a receiver like AJ Green or Mike Evans in the first round could provide your team with better balance, and would allow you to grab a quarterback later in the draft.

Let’s take a look at some teams built around Luck as their first round pick. Each of these teams were drafted as part of our DLF April Mock Draft series and each nabbed Luck in the back half of the first round.

Team 1

QB: Luck, Jay Cutler
RB: Adrian Peterson, Montee Ball, Mike Davis, Charles Sims, Branden Oliver
WR: Sammy Watkins, Dorial Green-Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon LaFell, Justin Blackmon, Devin Funchess, Marquess Wilson
TE: Zach Ertz, Maxx Williams, Jordan Cameron

Team 2

QB: Luck, Jimmy Garappolo
RB: Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Knile Davis, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Chris Ivory, Lorenzo Taliaferro
WR: TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Charles Johnson, Marvin Jones, Justin Blackmon, John Brown, Terrance Williams, Jamison Crowder
TE: Coby Fleener, Mychal Rivera

Team 3

QB: Luck, Eli Manning
RB: Adrian Peterson, Shane Vereen, Darren McFadden, Karlos Williams, Robert Turbin, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Randall Cobb, Allen Robinson, Josh Gordon, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Devin Funchess, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Cole Beasley
TE: Julius Thomas, Ladarius Green

Team 4

QB: Luck, Derek Carr
RB: Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde, Shane Vereen, David Johnson, David Cobb, Zach Zenner
WR: Kevin White, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Bell, Deontay Greenberry, Josh Harper, Tyler Lockett
TE: Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar

Team 5

QB: Luck, Joe Flacco
RB: Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, Chris Ivory, Javorius Allen, Malcolm Brown
WR: Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith
TE: Julius Thomas, Kyle Rudolph, Clive Walford

Other than making Luck their first round draft pick, these teams have some other things in common.

Most noticeably, they all have a deficiency at an important position that requires multiple starters, namely running back or wide receiver. While the teams are all built in different ways and would likely have a varying amount of success in 2015, there are some gaps at those key positions. Some of those gaps are depth, where teams have almost no options after their starters, while others are age gaps, as some teams are relying exclusively on older players.

Another key trend I noticed is that these teams are willing to take a risk. Three of the five teams selected running back Adrian Peterson as their top running back. While this could pay off in a big way, there is a great deal of unknown information surrounding Peterson right now and using a top three round pick on him is a gamble.

Another risk these drafters were willing to take was the selection of multiple rookies. Of the 100 players drafted across the five teams, nearly twenty percent were rookies.

Luck was not drafted as a first rounder in all of our April mock drafts. In one of the mocks, Luck fell to the 2.05 pick. Let’s take a look at that team.

QB: Luck, Tony Romo, Jimmy Garappolo
RB: DeMarco Murray, Mark Ingram, Roy Helu, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Darren Sproles
WR: AJ Green, Golden Tate, Brandon Marshall, Jaelen Strong, Andre Johnson, Stefon Diggs, Paul Richardson, Andrew Hawkins
TE: Dwayne Allen, Kyle Rudolph

Despite lacking some depth at the running back position, I like the balance of this team much more than some of the others we saw above. Granted, the difference between taking Luck late in the first round or early in the second is only a few picks, but in this case, it allowed the team to anchor their team and wide receiver position with AJ Green.

I love the talent of Andrew Luck and would like to have him on every dynasty roster I have, but I’m just not worth using a first round startup draft pick to own him.

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ryan mcdowell