Who is Charles Sims?
If you have read a few of the articles in this series, you have undoubtedly seen a trend in whether a player is recommended as a must-add, flier for the end of the bench, or best left on the waiver wire. With only college production to project from most of the time, historical production alone is only a small part of the picture. In conjunction with opportunity and perceived talent (though the latter can be too subjective depending on the source), there are many variables to consider. The most highly recommended players possess all three attributes and Tampa Bay running back Charles Sims fits the bill.
Though he was an early third round rookie pick last year, and is therefore less obscure than most players featured in this column, some of the shine has worn off following a preseason injury and his small workload in 2014 – don’t let that deter you from looking for buy-low opportunities.
Though he is best known for his senior season at West Virginia University (WVU), Sims spent the majority of his college career at the University of Houston. He caught 70 passes for 759 yards and a touchdown, along with 698 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground as a freshman in 2009 to earn Conference USA Freshman of the Year honors, while leading the conference in all-purpose yards.
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Academic issues kept him off the field for the 2010 season, but Sims returned without missing a beat in 2011 and was named first team All-Conference USA with 51 receptions, 13 touchdowns and 1,396 yards from scrimmage. In his final season at Houston, Sims totaled fourteen touchdowns and 1,224 yards from scrimmage.
Because of his ineligible season in 2010, he transferred to WVU to play his final season in 2013. Immediately named the starter, he proceeded to rush for 1,095 yards and eleven touchdowns on 208 carries. He also was a receiving threat out of the backfield, catching 45 passes for 401 yards and three touchdowns. In his four years at college, Sims totaled 5,573 yards from scrimmage and 51 touchdowns.
At the 2014 NFL Combine, Sims recorded several top-eight finishes at the running back position. His 37.5” vertical jump was good for eighth, a 4.48-second 40-yard dash placed him sixth and a 10’6” broad jump was fourth best. His combination of talent, production and metrics led Sims to be selected in the third round as the fourth running back (behind Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde) by Tampa Bay with the 69th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
Despite the majority of his college statistics coming on the ground, the 6’0”, 215 pound running back’s best asset may be receiving skills which were considered to be at the top of his class in the draft. Strong hands, a good catch radius and reliable pass-blocking will make him an asset on the field on third-down situations. He has good acceleration, runs clean routes and shows playmaking ability unique for his size, allowing him to be a mismatch when he lines up as a receiver.
One of the reasons Sims is a mismatch can also a detriment to his game. He can run too tall, leaving himself susceptible to injury and ball security issues and is often brought down on the first tackle. Though his speed was top-six at the position at the combine, he doesn’t have the on-field speed to outrun defenders in the secondary. Also noteworthy is that he will be turning 25 in September so he is much older than most of his peers in the 2014 draft class.
In his age-24 season, Sims showed some promise as a receiver out of the backfield once he started getting snaps in week ten. Though he only created 185 yards and a touchdown on the ground in 66 attempts (2.8 yards per carry), he caught 19 of 27 targets for 190 yards (an even 10.0 yards per catch). Although Bobby Rainey had a few big games earlier in the season, by week thirteen against Chicago, Sims had supplanted him as the primary backup to Doug Martin.
Looking ahead to 2015, Martin is entering the final year of his rookie contract. How the second-year coaching staff views him is a mystery, with speculation they are looking to trade him despite being vocal about committing to him as their bell-cow (which he has proven to be incapable of following his stellar rookie season). Rainey’s contract expires after this season, and though Mike James’ contract expires after 2016, he is no more than roster depth.
The next two weeks should create some clarity on this depth chart, even beyond whether they select a running back in the draft. Trade rumors have swirled around Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte, with Tampa Bay being named a landing spot for both (the latter due to the Lovie Smith connection). There are also some veteran free agent running backs available, and although Ahmad Bradshaw or Steven Jackson are depth only at this point in their careers, any signings would further cloud the depth chart.
Personally, I’m looking to buy low on Sims if possible. Should the team acquire a bell-cow running back through the draft or via trade, Sims’ value could take a slight hit but is not particularly high at the moment anyway with Martin still in town. Given how highly the team views Sims, which likely is not just lip-service given this is the regime that drafted him in the third round last year, a committee approach appears more likely. After all, the team ignored more glaring needs on both sides of the ball to make Sims one of the first running backs selected.
For dynasty purposes, April ADP puts Sims as the 155th player overall. This is equivalent to a late 13th round pick in standard leagues and a low-RB4 as the 48th overall running back behind players including Terrance West and Denard Robinson. That is pricing him as a backup, when in reality that is his floor with a great deal of upside. Buy if he’s available at this price as his value should only go up from here.
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