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Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta Posted On April 17, 2015
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Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

Tweet of the Week

I enjoyed Matt Miller’s tweet and time to provide a more detailed response to a common question. If you ever had thoughts of writing about fantasy, sports or anything else he provides a good baseline.

Charles Johnson, WR MIN

Johnson’s second season started out much like his rookie year with him riding the pine. He finally emerged in the Vikings offense in week five and despite a slow start gained Teddy Bridgewater’s trust and attention down the stretch. Over the last eight weeks of 2014 Johnson led the Minnesota receivers in snaps, targets, receptions and yards. He is a larger receiver with good speed and burst and his stock has been on the rise. DLF’s Nathan Powell though is not yet on board with the rising fantasy expectations.


Charles Johnson did have solid yards per catch and YAC numbers in 2014, but his catch percentage of 56.4% is a big deflator. He was playing with a rookie quarterback and growing pains can be expected but I agree with Nathan on the price tag becoming too expensive. Greg Jennings may have departed, but Mike Wallace is the new number one receiver on this team and will be targeted accordingly. It will be interesting to see if Cordarrelle Patterson will remain with the team and also eat into Johnson’s potential numbers. When looking at dynasty receiver ranks on DLF there is a wide spread slotting Charles anywhere between the 35th and 60th overall receiver. I have mentioned this previously, but when you see a player with such varying opinions of value you should define your perspective and buy or sell accordingly.

John Brown, WR ARI

Another similarly ranked wide receiver with opportunity questions is Cardinals’ John Brown. Optimism was high coming out of the gates in 2014 when he scored three touchdowns over the first three games. Unfortunately, Arizona faced huge quarterback struggles all season and Brown’s stats reflected this. The small speedster definitely was able to turn heads on plays but consistency still remained a problem. He caught only 51% of his targets and only topped 60 receiving yards four times in ’14. Cian Fahey shared his thoughts on Arizona’s young receiver tweeting,

[inlinead]I was ready to see what Brown could do in a full time role, but Arizona was obviously not ready to part ways with Larry Fitzgerald and signed him for two more years. Unfortunately this will definitely cap any real production from Brown. Michael Floyd also came off of a disappointing season but is entrenched in the starting lineup and will continue to garner his share of targets. The Cardinals trio of receivers shared in an equitable distribution of looks but I could actually see Carson Palmer’s return drive more focus onto Fitz and Floyd. I don’t see Brown contributing as even a WR3 across an entire season and really see his only opportunity coming if Floyd does not resign in 2016. DLF’s Ryan McDowell shared both Johnson and Brown’s ADP trends and currently both are still higher than I would like to invest looking at situations and opportunity.

Alex Smith, QB KC

I have never been a supporter of Alex Smith in real life or fantasy. I do not believe he can deliver Super Bowl or fantasy championships at the helm of your team. I have seen him as nothing more than a game manager and probably the least risk-averse player in the league. Scott Kacsmar shared some revealing graphs on Smith’s ultra-conservative nature that just backed up my personal opinions.


There are outliers, and then there is Alex Smith. Most fantasy owners are not clamoring for his services but I believe this should offer pause when thinking about both Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin in fantasy. Kelce can still finish as a top five tight end but his continuing higher draft spot is tough for me to invest. Maclin on the other hand should be ready for a significant drop off. Alex had 464 attempts last season with only 210 targets to his receivers. Tosses to the running backs, tight ends and simple throw-aways along with Smith’s cautious outlook will drain Jeremy’s production. Remember, this is the guy who did not throw a single touchdown to a receiver last season.

Michael Crabtree, WR OAK

The Raiders pursuit of a top notch receiver in free agency ended with the signing of Michael Crabtree – definitely not the splash their fan base was looking for. Crabtree appeared to have lost a lot of his explosion after his Achilles tear during the 2013 season and is likely on the downside of his career. The fantasy community also did not show overall excitement to the news.

Quarterback Derek Carr attempted the seventh most passes last season so there is a high number of targets to be shared in the Raiders offense. The problem is that Carr himself needs to take big strides in year two to improve accuracy and the ability to push the ball down field if any receiver is to have success. James Jones and Andre Holmes reached or neared 100 total targets each in 2014, but I do not see Michael completely supplanting either one meaning less for everyone. Despite being 27 years old, Crabtree’s long term fantasy value will likely never reach starter levels again. I would be trading shares where possible as he enters the black hole.

Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

Despite being the top drafted receiver in 2014, Sammy Watkins was outscored by four other rookies in fantasy. An individual’s talent does not always correlate directly to success as factors such as supporting cast and opportunities play heavily into the equation. Kyle Orton stepped into the quarterback role last season after E.J. Manuel was benched for poor performance. Orton was serviceable and able to keep Sammy relevant during the first part of the season, but injuries and performance dropped him off the fantasy radar over the second half of the year. Watkins only scored once during the final eight games and broke 60 yards just twice. Looking ahead the Bills are turning back to Manuel and everyone around the organization is saying all the right things about him. The fact is that expectations for E.J. should be low. Frank DuPont commented on the opportunity in Buffalo in 2015 stating,

The signings of Percy Harvin, LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay create the likelihood of Manuel spreading the ball even more and lessoning Watkins weekly impact. The Bills QBs did attempt 577 passes last season, but only about 53% of those were targeted at receivers. The running backs played a huge role in the passing game with Fred Jackson seeing 82 of his own. Watkins is also coming off hip surgery in February and is expected to be limited heading into the offseason programs. Sammy is still young and talented but currently I would rather have fellow rookies Brandin Cooks or Jordan Matthews on my roster based on their access to better schemes, quarterbacks and opportunities.

Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.

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