Running Back Landscape: Pre-NFL Draft
Dynasty players have been talking about the 2015 rookie running back class for what feels like years and years. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, this class is one of the deepest and most talented in years. Secondly, and maybe just as important, is the overall decline of the running back position in recent years. These two things will lead to a huge change to the overall running back landscape as early as a few weeks from now when the NFL Draft takes place.
There are as many as 15 rookie running backs expected to crash the NFL and quickly earn a role and this will obviously affect the current backs who are already established around the league.
Let’s begin by taking a quick look at each of the running back depth charts before deciding which teams might select a running back later this month and which veteran running backs could see their value plummet as a result.
For each team, I’ll score them on a one to five scale, with a five meaning they are most likely to select a running back and a one meaning they are least likely to add a back through the draft. If I score a team as a four or five, I’ll also note the player most in danger of losing value due to the addition of a rookie back.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown
Rookie Running Back Score: 1
The Bills made one of the huge moves of the off-season by adding LeSean McCoy and cementing their running back group. With a pair of talented backups and a bevy of other needs, it’s doubtful Buffalo will use a draft pick on a running back.
Team: Miami Dolphins
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Lamar Miller, Damien Williams
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Williams
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Lamar Miller is coming off a very impressive 2014 season and the Dolphins surely feel comfortable with him as their starter. The problem is they have almost nothing behind Miller, so they are almost certain to add a rookie back, evidenced by the fact they had interest in former Patriot Stevan Ridley. I’d expect the Dolphins to stick with Miller as their starter, but Damien Williams could easily lose his backup job and any dynasty value he may have.
Team: New England Patriots
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: LeGarrette Blount, Travaris Cadet, Jonas Gray, Tyler Gaffney, James White
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
Who knows what to expect from the Patriots, especially when it comes to the running back position. They’ve lost a pair of backs who many considered their most talented runners on the team over the past couple of years, Ridley and Shane Vereen, but they have a quartet of viable backs and with Bill Belichick at the helm, any of them could be fantasy stars.
Team: New York Jets
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Stevan Ridley, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
The Jets finally added some help at running back recently when they signed former Patriot Stevan Ridley, although he has rarely shown he can be a lead back, so there is still some uncertainty about the position going forward. They’ve made it through the past couple of seasons with a combination of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, who has now been released. While they could use some more talent at the position, they also have many other needs all over the field, meaning they may see what the Ridley/Ivory duo can do in 2015 before addressing the position further.
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Justin Forsett, Lorenzo Taliaferro
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Forsett
A year ago, the Ravens looked to be in great shape at the running back position with one of the game’s top backs nearing the end and a highly valued prospect seemingly on the rise. Now, both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce are gone and it was veteran Justin Forsett who picked up the slack, leading to a career year. Forsett saw a big boost in value, but at his age, that won’t last. The Ravens are almost certain to add a back during the draft.
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard
Rookie Running Back Score: 1
The Bengals surprised us all by taking a day two back last season with Jeremy Hill and that paid off. Hill and Giovani Bernard form one of the best running back duos in the league and I don’t see the Bengals going back to the well this year.
Team: Cleveland Browns
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West
Rookie Running Back Score: 2
Following the Trent Richardson trade, running back was a huge need for the Browns and they took care of that last year, adding rookies Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. The pair battled it out all season and ran Ben Tate out of town. I would not be shocked if the team took a late round flier on a back, but I still expect the current duo to carry over their value.
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Williams
The Steelers have the best running back in dynasty football on their roster, but need someone to share the load with Le’Veon Bell. Even though they signed DeAngelo Williams, they are likely not done and Wiliams’ roster spot is not guaranteed.
Team: Houston Texans
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Arian Foster, Alfred Blue
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Blue
The Texans have always been a team looking to add running backs each year. With stud Arian Foster slowing down, they may need to consider thinking about his eventual replacement. Foster should be a safe option for the 2015 season at least, but the rookie they add could be ready to take over by then. Alfred Blue is an average talent and could easily lose carries to any one of a dozen or more rookies.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Frank Gore, Dan Herron
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Herron
The Colts have turned their running back depth chart upside down in the past year, mostly due to the disappointing performance of Trent Richardson, who is now with the Raiders. Veteran Dan Herron surprised everyone last season with a solid fantasy performance, but he’s no long-term answer – that was proven when the team inked Frank Gore to a deal. At his age, Gore also is not long for the league, so expect the Colts to grab a rookie who has room to grow. Former Hoosier Tevin Coleman would be a great fit to sit behind Gore for a year or two.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Denard Robinson, Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson, Bernard Pierce
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Robinson
The Jaguars are a complete mess at the running back position. They were not prepared to replace Maurice Jones-Drew a year ago and they haven’t recovered.
Toby Gerhart was a bust and while Denard Robinson was impressive, his season ended early with an injury. I’d really like the team to give Robinson another chance, but I expect them to draft a rookie and give him a chance to play right away. Depending on their contract status, Gerhart, Storm Johnson and newly signed Bernard Pierce are all in danger of not making the final roster.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Bishop Sankey, Dexter McCluster
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Sankey
The Titans are another team with a black hole at the running back spot. Even though they spent a fairly early pick a year ago on Bishop Sankey, there is no clear indication how much they like Sankey or if they feel he can be their starter going forward. Dynasty owners have already decided though as Sankey has seen a drastic drop in value recently. The Titans will add another back through the draft and how early a pick they use will shed some light on how they feel about their 2014 rookie back.
Team: Denver Broncos
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: CJ Anderson, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
The Broncos never seem to do what we think they might do when it comes to the running back position. First, two years ago, Knowshon Moreno had a breakout season. Then last year, when we all expected Montee Ball to not only take over, but perform as a stud running back, he struggled before getting injured. Little known CJ Anderson stepped in and stepped up, earning a ton of dynasty value along the way. I don’t think the Broncos really need to add a back at this point, although they are a team that always seems to grab someone late in the draft.
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis
Rookie Running Back Score: 2
Jamaal Charles may be slowing down as far as many dynasty owners are concerned, but the Chiefs are happy to keep riding him and giving him as many touches as he can handle. They also have a talented backup in Knile Davis. I expect them to focus on other positions in the draft.
Team: Oakland Raiders
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Latavius Murray, Trent Richardson, Roy Helu
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
Prior to free agency, it appeared the Raiders were a lock to add a new back through the draft after Maurice Jones-Drew retired and the team made it clear they had no interest in retaining Darren McFadden, who later signed with Dallas. Since then though, they added former Redskin Roy Helu via free agency and also signed one-time 1.01 rookie pick Trent Richardson after the Colts released him. This is a difficult backfield to project, but I think they will roll with this trio for 2015 and see if Latavius Murray can stay healthy and/or Richardson can turn things around. If they do draft a rookie running back as well, it’s bad news for the dynasty value of both Murray and Richardson.
Team: San Diego Chargers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Branden Oliver
Rookie Running Back Score: 5
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Oliver
With former starter Ryan Mathews now in Philadelphia and the status of Danny Woodhead still to be decided, the Chargers are a lock to add a rookie running back and there is a good chance they’ll be one of the first teams to do so. With only Branden Oliver, the rookie landing in sunny San Diego will automatically be viewed as one of the top targets for dynasty players.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Darren McFadden, Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle
Rookie Running Back Score: 5
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Randle
Another team that will certainly be adding a rookie to their running back stable is the Dallas Cowboys, who lost last season’s rushing champion, DeMarco Murray, to their rival Eagles. While the Cowboys did sign McFadden, he has not proven trustworthy enough to be labeled the starter at this point in the year. When they do draft a back, it could signal the end of the line for Joseph Randle in Big D. He’s struggled on the field and found trouble off of it, so don’t count on him as a sleeper in 2015.
Team: New York Giants
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
The Giants rebuilt their running game on the fly last year, signing underrated Rashad Jennings away from Oakland and then drafting big Andre Williams. The dup proved adequate, but that wasn’t enough to keep the team from adding another back in former Pat Shane Vereen. I don’t think they’ll use a pick on a rookie runner, but if they do, it likely means Jennings time with the team is through.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, Chris Polk
Rookie Running Back Score: 1
I won’t try to predict what Chip Kelly might do on draft day, but with the acquisition of Murray and Mathews, along with holdovers Darren Sproles and Chris Polk, this is one position they can feel confident about.
Team: Washington Redskins
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Alfred Morris, Silas Redd
Rookie Running Back Score: 5
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Redd
I hesitated to even include Silas Redd among the relevant running backs on the Redskins, meaning the Skins are another team who will be looking to add another body in the backfield. I don’t expect the rookie to challenge Alfred Morris for the starter’s role, but crazier things have happened and he’s not the most dynamic back.
Team: Chicago Bears
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Matt Forte, Ka’Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
I’m still a bit surprised at the addition of Jacquizz Rodgers to the Bears this off-season and I wonder if that says anything about what they think of KaDeem Carey? Nonetheless, I don’t see them drafting their running back of the future, even though Matt Forte is nearing the end of his prime. If they do spend a pick in the first two days, it means they really don’t like Carey.
Team: Detroit Lions
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Joique Bell, Theo Riddick
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Bell
The Lions were confident enough in Theo Riddick to part ways with Reggie Bush and leave Joique Bell alone as the presumed starter, but he’s older than most would think, turning 29 before the season starts, so the Lions should consider adding a potential every down back in this year’s loaded class. Bell should be safe for the 2015 season, but I wouldn’t presume anything beyond that.
Team: Green Bay Packers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Eddie Lacy, James Starks
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
The Packers are in good shape with one of the league’s best young backs in Eddie Lacy and an old reliable backup who could step in when needed in James Starks. They might add a late round rookie, but I don’t expect that to have much impact in 2015.
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Adrian Peterson, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Asiata
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: McKinnon
I gave the Vikings a score of four with the assumption that Adrian Peterson will not be with the team in 2015. The off-field issues not withstanding, that is somewhat of a disappointment as he and Jerick McKinnon would form a beautiful tandem. Instead, the Vikings should be shopping for another powerful back to pair with their second year man. I only tab McKinnon as the player at risk if you are one expecting him to get starter’s carries. I don’t think that happens, but he can still be a productive player for your fantasy team.
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Devonta Freeman
Rookie Running Back Score: 5
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Freeman
The Falcons join the Chargers, Cowboys and Redskins as teams we are nearly certain will be drafting a running back sometime in that last weekend of April. Like McKinnon is Minnesota, many are starting to count on the idea that second year back Devonta Freeman will be the starter in Atlanta. While I do expect a much larger role for the former Seminole, I don’t think the Falcons are ready to turn the job over to him. Expect a day two pick to be spent on a rookie, though the Falcons’ dream would be somehow landing former Georgia star Todd Gurley.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Stewart
For the first time in a long time, the Panthers have a need at running back. It seems like it was a decade ago the team rewarded both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams with monster contracts that eventually hamstrung the team. Williams is now gone and while Stewart enjoyed a bounce back year in 2014, they need some depth behind him. Considering Stewart’s injury history, no matter who the rookie is, he’s worthy of a stash on your dynasty team.
Team: New Orleans Saints
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller, Khiry Robinson
Rookie Running Back Score: 1
It was a surprising move when the Saints were able to retain starting back Mark Ingram and maybe even more surprising when they followed that up by signing CJ Spiller. The team clearly plans on running the ball more in 2015 and with this pair of signings, along with Khiry Robinson, they should be set for a year or two at least.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Doug Martin, Charles Sims
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Martin
We’ve heard rumors all off-season of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trading running back Doug Martin and if that somehow proves true between now and draft day, their score becomes a five. For now, they have Martin along with Charles Sims and I don’t think they expect either to be a productive starter for the next three years. This tells me they will again be looking to draft a back and it could signal Martin’s ticket out of town.
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor
Rookie Running Back Score: 4
Current Running Back Most At Risk: Ellington
The Cardinals have been one of the teams rumored to have heavy interest in Peterson, should the Vikings decide to trade or even release him. Until that time, they are stuck with a pair of mediocre backs in Andre Ellington and Stepfan Taylor. Ellington was a surprised in 2013, but showed his true colors last season and should not be counted on as a fantasy starter. If the Cardinals can’t land the big fish in Peterson, expect them to grab a rookie fairly early in the NFL Draft.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
Although the 49ers lost veteran Frank Gore, they did sign Reggie Bush to pair with second year back Carlos Hyde. The dynasty community has been up and down on Hyde over the past months, but San Francisco will see what he can do before spending a valuable draft pick on another rookie.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch, Christine Michael, Robert Turbin
Rookie Running Back Score: 2
Veteran Marshawn Lynch was one of the best backs in the league last year and will only slow down when he decides he wants to. Until then, the Seahawks will stick with him and keep his talented backups, Robert Turbin and dynasty darling Christine Michael, at bay. The only reason they receive a score of two, instead of one are the recent reports that have them bringing in some rookie backs for workouts and interviews. I’m intrigued to learn more about this.
Team: St. Louis Rams
Current Fantasy Relevant Running Backs: Tre Mason, Zac Stacy, Benny Cunningham
Rookie Running Back Score: 3
The Rams found a starter in the middle round of the NFL Draft two years ago with Zac Stacy. Then, they did it again last year, adding Tre Mason. I don’t think history repeats itself for a third time since they seem to be more satisfied with Mason as their lead back. Adding a rookie could show they don’t think Stacy has a place on their team.
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