DLF Q&A: Graham Barfield

When I first came on board with Dynasty League Football, they expanded my view regarding all the great fantasy websites out there. One such website is numberFire, where I had the pleasure to read Graham Barfield’s work and later, connect with him. Not only was I impressed with his take on various fantasy football topics, but I appreciated his willingness to share his learnings so freely. Since then, he has been featured in Rotoworld and regularly drops knowledge on Twitter.

More recently, Graham has dived in head first on the 2015 rookie running backs, providing some of the best analytical work on the class to date. In this edition of the DLF Q&A, I will pick his brain on this topic along with his thoughts on wide receivers, free agency, and more.

DLF: First off Graham, I appreciate the enthusiasm for answering some questions. If you didn’t see the intro, you are one of my favorite writers to read. Talk to me about how you got started. Also, I have to ask, are you even old enough to rent a car? (It’s 25 by the way)

Graham:  Well, first of all that’s very kind of you to say – I really do appreciate the support and thank you for asking me to come on here and answer some questions!

I’m 20 years old (super young, I know), a junior at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, and I turn 21 in June (Todd Gurley is like a month and half younger than me). I started writing about fantasy in my freshman year of college on a few various small time blogs, writing on my own personal blog, tweeting, etc. I eventually grew a passion for writing and sent in some sample work to JJ (@LateRoundQB) over at numberFire, he gracefully brought me on board and it’s been a lot of fun ever since!

DLF: What formats do you typically play for fantasy football? Is there one you want to get more involved in?

Graham:  Generally speaking, I play everything except Devy leagues. I’m in multiple dynasty, re-draft, and keeper leagues plus caught the DFS bug last year. I’d have to say dynasty is by far my favorite league format just because it has ten thousand more nuances to it via strategy, team building, and finding sustainable roster pieces.

DLF: You seem to prefer a quantitative approach in your evaluations, much like myself. Provide some insight on why that is and how you use game film.

Graham:  Right – well, as humans, our eyes lie to us every day. One person can see or perceive something be it on TV, a movie, or even driving in a car and see something “one way” while another person may think that same object or bit of information is totally different.

Football is more detailed than that analogy above but it can still apply. Quantifying the game via statistics, advanced metrics, etc. can help fill in the blanks of things our eyes can’t see or won’t see on film. We all have biases as humans and when we see something good or bad on film we tend to latch on to it. Let me be clear: film is still a vital part of what we do and I’m not saying by any means it has a diminished worth (I have watched a gross amount of film this offseason on the incoming RBs/WRs/TEs), I just think “film watching” can be so entirely subjective at times. Stats/metrics can be subjective and need context too, but at least they perform a reality check and go beyond our personal preconceived notions.

DLF: Before we get into the 2015 rookie running back class, I noticed that you utilize a lot of efficiency-focused statistics. Are there any that you recommend for readers and what are the benefits compared to statistics based in usage?

Graham: Yeah, I think quoting traditional statistics in college football is almost worthless at times because it has zero context of what scheme that player was in, how good their offense was compared to the field, etc. It’s just not fair to look at a player like Tevin Coleman who was on a god-awful offense at Indiana and compare his 2,000 yards to Melvin Gordon’s 2,000-plus yard season at Wisconsin last year.

With that said, efficiency based stats (like percentage of carries that went for 5 or more yards) help flesh out where a player can win and how it may transfer to the NFL. Bill Connelly runs a great study every year looking at “Opportunity Rate” and a stat called “Highlight Yards” and was honestly my first statistical jump in to this years class back in February. Link

Also, RotoViz’s market share and “Box Score Scout” work is fantastic and really provides (some) orange-to-orange comparisons. I’d highly recommend checking their content out.

DLF: When talking about the rookie class of running backs, it is easiest to start at the top. You dissected college performance. Does any of that work suggest that Todd Gurley is not the top talent in this group?

Graham:  Simply put: I really don’t think so. He was one of only two RBs in this year’s class to come in above average in each production variable (the other being Melvin Gordon). Plus, anyone can snap on this game against Clemson and know he’s dominant. I really believe if he’s not the consensus 1.01 right now in rookie dynasty drafts you’re probably overthinking it.

DLF: You wrote articles about red zone production and opportunity rate. Did you find any conflicts where a running excelled in one area and struggled in the other? How do you rationalize those instances?

Graham: This is a great question. TJ Yeldon is basically the living embodiment of this problem and I have gone back and forth on him so many damn times. On one hand, he finished first in Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries that gain 5+ yards) but he was pretty much below average in every other yardage split.

With that said, if a player really stands out in one area but isn’t so great in others you can’t stop digging for more context and Yeldon is a fantastic example of this. His lack of great yardage split numbers overall were probably a little bit of Derrick Henry’s presence, Alabama’s offense in general, and the fact Yeldon isn’t really a home run hitter for the most part. Sometimes yardage splits skew towards the big play running backs like Melvin Gordon.

DLF: Was there a running back you analyzed who was less impressive based on their college numbers? How much of a red flag are low levels of college efficiency?

Graham: Jay Ajayi’s yardage splits were pretty bad honestly (below average in each). I mean, production isn’t entirely requisite for someone to be a really good player (I think Ajayi is) but it certainly helps. I don’t want to make a broad statement and say if a player doesn’t have great college efficiency it’s a total “red flag” it just means that you have to look at how and why this certain player wasn’t efficient enough. Ajayi’s a pretty solid example of this because he was a massive part of Boise’s offense last year and saw a ton of volume (28.3 touches per game) and, like Yeldon, Ajayi’s not really a homerun hitter who rips off 80-yard touchdowns consistently.

DLF: Give me a one up and one down at the position. Who do you think you are higher on than the consensus and who are you avoiding and why?

Graham: I’m much higher on Ameer Abdullah than consensus just because I really value his profile as a super explosive athlete and a dynamic/shifty runner. Of course we say this for all of these prospects, but I really think he’s going to shred in the right landing spot.

Because this running back class is so deep, I’m honestly not really “down” on anyone in particular – but I’m not a huge fan of David Cobb. Although, I am coming around on these “grinding” type of backs, for me there isn’t much that puts him in to that super-high upside tier like Gurley/Gordon/Abdullah/Ajayi.

DLF: You just put out an article about Amari Cooper, looking at his standing in the rookie wide receiver rankings. While I won’t give too much away, did you find anything that changed your overall perception on Cooper?

Graham: Other than that he’s even better than I expected? Ha ha, Cooper really is the most superior, polished wide receiver in this year’s class in my opinion. I have Dorial Green-Beckham No. 1 in my personal ranks just because I value habitual touchdown makers higher from a fantasy standpoint, but I really can’t fault anyone who would have Cooper as their No. 1 (as a lot of people do).

DLF: Going broader at the wide receiver position for the 2015 class. Who would be your Odell Beckham (most likely to hit WR1 status), Donte Moncrief (athlete who will build hype but take time to produce), and Jarvis Landry (under the radar steady performer) in this year’s rookie crop?

Graham:  Oh, this is a fun question. Here we go.

Odell Beckham (most likely to hit WR1 status): Kevin White.

Donte Moncrief (athlete who will build hype but take time to produce): Breshad Perriman.

Jarvis Landry (under the radar steady performer): Even though he’s not really under the rader, I’ll say Nelson Agholor here.

DLF: You also covered some of the key free agency moves this offseason. Give me your impressions on some of the tight end movement including Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham (He was traded but my conscience is clean on fudging his inclusion), Jordan Cameron, and Charles Clay?

Graham: Julius Thomas – he’s easily seen the biggest drop in value and I’m not going to want any part of him from a fantasy perspective. Unless Bortles somehow transforms himself in to a quasi-Carson Palmer, Thomas is no more than a weekly low-TE1.

Jimmy Graham — I really don’t think his move West is a complete shock to his value. He’s probably not close to Gronk anymore, but SEA has been lacking a force inside of the redzone and Graham should see a ton of RZ opportunities.

Jordan Cameron – He’s interesting because he got out of Cleveland and in to a better situation but those concussion issues still weigh down his upside. I think I’m buying at the right price, though, only on the principle he’ll be Ryan Tannehill’s binky.

Charles Clay – He’s going to an offense that’s going to run a ton and will start Matt Cassell at quarterback. Meh. Pass.

DLF: Since I brought up Jimmy Graham and the Saints, can we talk Brandin Cooks? My concern for him is around the increased defensive attention and recent trend towards an offense that features the run more. What have you seen and where do you perceive his production will land assuming this is their offensive personnel for 2015?

Graham:  I think the whole “Saints are going to run more” is a bit overblown. They were still bottom-6 in terms of percentage of rush plays last year and Drew Brees still dropped back to pass 700-plus times. If Brees’ dropbacks are cut even 10% he’s still dropping back to pass around 39 times per game. Cooks is due to see more targets but his price point has been sky-rocketing over the past month or so post-free agency. I like him as a really solid WR2 but I think anyone pushing him in to the top-12 or 15 conversation is probably taking it too far.

DLF: To go back to free agency, what are your thoughts on some of the wide receiver movement? What was your favorite move and who do you think hurt their future production most with their decision?

Graham: Andre Johnson definitely helped his stock the most. He’s going to get a 18-20% target share slice in an uber efficient passing offense that throws a ton? Sign me up.

Jeremy Maclin is the easy-answer guy whose value was crushed due to free agency. He goes from a low-end WR1 in Philly to a WR3 in KC. Alex Smith will refuse to throw the ball deep often enough to get Maclin in open-space, too. Gross.

DLF: There are still a few free agents out there still unsigned. What would your advice be to owners of Stevan Ridley, Michael Crabtree, and Greg Jennings? Is there someone else you are keeping an eye on?

Graham: Everyone is down on Crabtree for somewhat similar reasons but I think he could be a really solid fit in a timing based offense. He can still get open. Ridley’s knee needs to check out before he goes anywhere obviously, but I’d be really intrigued if Atlanta or even Dallas snatches him up later. Greg Jennings is super cheap right now (for good reason) but could be a spotty WR3/4 in somewhere like Oakland.

DLF: Looking forward to the 2015 season. Is there a player you are buying low on with the anticipation of a leap forward in production? Who is the player you will be avoiding or trading off because the price tag exceeds your future expectations?

Graham:  If I feel like I’m in a position to win my league next year and see Calvin Johnson’s value falling in to the 2^nd round of start-up drafts (i.e. he’s cleared the age curve) I’m thinking about buying. He’s been slowed by injuries but still has 2-4 years of team-changing production, and if he’s coming at a diminished price because of his age/injury concerns I’d love to buy.

I’m selling Sammy Watkins. This has nothing to do with talent but is more or less three pronged: 1) expectations will never meet reality with Watkins in Buffalo, 2) Matt Cassel (gross) and 3) Buffalo is going to run a lot next year and Greg Roman has typically been benevolent to feeding just one receiver. If I can get 95% of his sticker price or trade him straight up for Randall Cobb, I’d do that in a heart beat.

DLF: For everyone who is looking to make that leap into writing, do you have any suggestions to help them get started?

Graham: I personally believe new and aspiring writers have to do something to separate herself or himself from everyone else. Just do something different. Whether it’s the lens you approach fantasy or a new flavor – since we’re all talking about the same topics, just bring something to the table that looks at the fantasy landscape differently.

Also, it’s okay to be wrong sometimes. With the way the NFL works, we’d be doing exceptionally well to be right 65-70% of the time. We all make mistakes, just don’t be afraid to actually make them because that’s how you learn/refine your process.

Lastly, be able to change your process. The worst thing someone can do in their writing is to get “stale” and churn out similar articles repeatedly. Challenge yourself each time you write and push your own envelope. See how far you can take it.

DLF: Last one, I promise. Can you give me a few fantasy football personalities you recommend as follows on Twitter and writers you enjoy reading? (Besides myself of course)

Graham:  READ AND WORSHIP EVERYTHING @RotoHack tweets/says/writes! (Thinly veiled compliments get you very far!)

Every time I read @LordReebs (Rich Hribar) I learn something new. He has an uncanny way of presenting complex data/ideas in a very unique way.

@Fantasy_Mansion (Matt Kelly) is another guy I love reading/listening to his RotoUnderworld podcast. Plus, his “Player Profiler” app certainly makes life easier.

Lastly, one writer I feel like is very underfollowed is Kevin Cole (@colekev_FF) over at RotoViz. He does fantastic dynasty and MFL10 work and is a huge data scientist.

DLF: Graham, thanks for the chance to ask some questions on your background, the 2015 rookie class, free agency, and continuing to put out great work for me to read!

You can find Graham on Twitter at @GrahamBarfield and don’t forget to look for his work at numberFire as well.