Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: Part One
The NFL season never ends. The main office has done a very nice job of ensuring we are always talking about football. There are very few exceptions to this rule. March Madness and The Masters seem to be the only ones which come to mind, filling a few week gap between free agency and the NFL draft. However, those distractions are now in the rear view mirror meaning it is time to get back to football. It is time to take a closer look at the combine and all of the information it provided.
The major problem with the combine, other than our wives and others not understanding why we care about it since it “Isn’t real football,” is we often don’t know what we learned. Obviously we know that faster and stronger is better, but how much does it matter? If someone runs a 4.3 second time in the 40 yard dash but then turns around and only jumps 30 inches in the vertical jump and runs a 4.5 second time in the 20 yard shuttle does that matter? The short answer is yes, but the better question is how much does it matter? That’s where I come in!
For the last few years I’ve been trying to help answer those questions by sifting through the combine data and trying to lend a little statistical assistance to the wide receiver and running back groups. In the past few years this has taken on several different formats, but I decided to restructure everything for the 2014 crop of rookies and I was very happy with how things turned out. In the interest of always getting better, I’ve made a few refinements this year as well in order to better predict what might be coming down the road.
Here’s what I did:
Statistical Method
Since the goal of the combine for both NFL teams and fantasy owners alike is to try and figure out which of the incoming rookie class have what it takes to be at least a starter on an NFL team, it is important to compare them to that group. For that reason, I took the group of wide receivers who have been at least WR2s at some point over the last few seasons and used them as a baseline. The baseline group is 35 players including the current greats like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham as well as the recently great players like Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson. I went back and pulled up all of their combine data and calculated the mean and standard deviation for each of the various drills.
Here’s where it gets a little bit more technical. I then took the official combine times for the various drills for the 2015 rookie class and calculated the z-score for each of those drills using the mean and standard deviation from the baseline group. The z-score, for those not familiar with it, is calculated by taking the value (in this case the time or measurement of the 2015 rookie) and subtracting the mean of the baseline group from it. That number is then divided by the deviation of the baseline group. The z-score represents the number of standard deviations a value is away from the mean. In a data set which is normally distributed, which all of the combine drills are, 68% of all data should be between z-scores of -1 and 1, 95% of all data should be between z-scores of -2 and 2, and only 2.5% of all data greater than a z-score of 2 while an additional 2.5% of the data is less than a z-score of -2.
What does all of these mean to those who doesn’t really care much about statistics? It simply means the majority of all data, 68% to be exact, will be somewhere between a z-score of -1 and 1 for all of the drills. Scores between 1 and 2 or between -1 and -2 will be rarer but are not uncommon. Anything outside of that range is going to be quite rare though and either means they are severely deficient if they are on the negative end or elite if they are on the positive end.
Once the z-score was calculated for each of the drills, all of the z-scores for each individual were added together to get a composite score. Since a score of zero is the norm and the baseline group was fantasy WR2s or better, any rookie with a positive score is actually more physically gifted than the average of the baseline. Anyone with a negative score is less physically gifted than the average of the baseline group.
Baseline Data
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As mentioned previously, I used a group of veteran wide receivers, 35 in total, who have been WR2s or better in fantasy leagues over the last few years. This list of veterans included the obvious elite receivers such as Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant as well as less athletic but equally productive players such as Antonio Brown, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. I have even included new comers who produced at that level such as Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans.
I looked at a total of nine different values for each of the veterans and each of the rookies, assuming they participated in the drill or measurement. Here are the nine I considered, why I considered them, and the mean score for the baseline group:
Height – Bigger receivers are bigger targets. If someone is 6’5”, they don’t need to run as fast or be as agile as someone who is 5’9”. Mean: 73.32 inches (6’1.32”)
BMI (body mass index) – Instead of just using weight, which would largely be proportional to height, BMI is a more accurate measurement of how well built someone is, which is more important than just weight. Mean: 27.426
Hand Size – Receivers with larger hands have shown a tendency to make more sure handed catches and to have fewer drops. Mean: 9.6 inches
Arm Length – Longer arms means a larger catch radius. Mean: 32.69 inches
40 Yard Dash – The headline act of the combine, the 40 yard dash is all about straight line speed or long speed as it is sometimes called. Mean: 4.468 seconds
Vertical Jump – Measures lower body explosiveness and the ability of the receiver to go up and get a jump ball. Mean: 36.81 inches
Broad Jump – Another measure of explosiveness but this one is more about the ability of the receiver to push off and explode from the line of scrimmage or out of breaks in a route. Mean: 123.885 inches
20 Yard Shuttle – Measures the ability of the receiver to accelerate and decelerate. Mean: 4.249 seconds
Three Cone Drill – This tracks the ability of the receiver to keep their speed up while changing direction which is extremely important in route running. Mean 6.945 seconds
Disclaimers
No statistical study would be complete without a few disclaimers!
1) This score does not represent a complete picture of a prospect, merely a snap shot. This score merely reflects how well their physical size, runs and jumps compare to the baseline group. There is no attempt to neither quantify nor include extremely important items such as route running, work ethic, mental focus, or anything else of that nature.
2) A high score is not a prediction of success in the NFL. It merely means that player has physical tools that compare favorably to NFL receivers who have been at least fantasy WR2s. Likewise, a negative score does not predict failure in the NFL. It merely means that player’s physical tools are slightly below the average of the baseline group.
3) One of the best indicators of success for a NFL receiver is being selected in the first round of the NFL draft, especially in the first five or six picks. These receivers are successful at a much, much higher rate than those taken anywhere else. Outside of the first round, draft position doesn’t matter much. In fact, the success rate for second round receivers is very near the success rate of seventh round receivers. Give those taken in the first round a little boost in your rankings once the NFL draft has unfolded.
4) Smaller receivers are at a slight disadvantage in this type of study; however, this is also an accurate reflection of the struggles they will face in the NFL. Life is more difficult if you are a receiver under six feet tall than if you are taller. You need to be faster, quicker, and more efficient because you don’t have that added cushion of size. In order to help take size out a little bit, when there is a significant difference between a receiver’s score with their size factored in compared to without it in the equation, I’ll make a point of bringing it up.
5) All data came from the combine and the official measurements. Sometimes players just have a bad day or get injured at the combine and drastically improve at their pro day, but it isn’t fair to just take the best score. In order to have a level playing field for all players only measurements from the combine were used.
The Results
The 2014 draft class was one of the best wide receiver draft classes in recent memory, if not ever. They were also one of the most athletic with Odell Beckham scoring a 5.5 while other high profile receivers like Donte Moncrief, Brandin Cooks and Mike Evans were all over a score of 2. None of them reached the lofty heights of Calvin Johnson (9.677) or Julio Jones (8.899), but it was still a very good year!
The 2015 draft class is much more normal in terms of physical athletes, coming in a small step behind the 2014 draft class as a whole. Though that doesn’t mean the current draft class is without it’s standout players!
He did what?!? (Scores over 6. Only Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Andre Johnson)
Chris Conley (7.432)
I was going to put Chris Conley in the group with the rest of the exceptional performances, but then I went back and looked at the data one more time. This is the highest score this metric has recorded since Julio Jones and his score has only been beaten by Jones and Megatron. Think about that for a moment. Could Chris Conley just be the best workout warrior we have seen the last few years? He most definitely could be! However, he could also be one of the most physically gifted wide receivers of this generation. Which side of the coin he falls on is something all 32 teams have undoubtedly put countless hours into investigating over the last few months. Where he gets drafted should give us a pretty big clue about what the NFL teams think about him.
It is going to be tough for NFL teams to figure out exactly what Conley brings to the table thanks in part to Georgia’s pro-style offense which ran the ball over two thirds of the time. Conley did lead the team in receiving each of the last two years and did have some highlight reel plays over that time, but his production looks very lackluster thanks to the offense Georgia ran.
He has nice size at 6’2” and 213 pounds and holds up very well blocking in the running game. Combine that with solid body control and toughness and you have the makings of a complete receiver. The concerns arise because his film doesn’t look like someone who could have produced combine numbers like he did. No one is talking about Conley as a first round pick in fantasy leagues or in the NFL draft, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes a chance on him in the second or third round of the NFL draft. He’s someone I’ll be watching with great anticipation over the next year or two. He could be the next superstar or one of the greatest workout warriors in NFL history.
Great (Scores between 2 and 6. Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery and Odell Beckham types)
DeAndre Smelter (4.962)
Sammie Coates (4.803)
Kenny Bell (2.375, 3.404 without height)
Amari Cooper (2.323, 3.458 without height)
This is a fairly small group this year, but it is most years. Keep in mind what a score in this range means. These players are physically on par or better than almost all of the top receivers in the game today. Of the four, I feel like I need to toss Smelter’s score out. He couldn’t do any of the drills at the combine due to a late season ACL injury. Though don’t forget completely about him. He’s another in a very long line of Georgia Tech receivers. He very easily could have scored in this range if he were healthy. He makes for a very solid third round flier.
Coates and Cooper are both in my top ten wide receivers and I’ll be doing a more detailed write up on each of them later in this series. The short version for the two of them is that Coates as good size all the way around and is almost the baseline for height, BMI and the other size based metrics. He is a little bit faster, but where he really separates himself is with his acceleration and explosiveness. As for Cooper, with all the talk about Kevin White passing Cooper, you would think he was terrible. Yes, White is bigger and ran a faster 40 yard dash, but Cooper was near elite when it comes to change of direction and acceleration. Those count for an awful lot. Just as Odell Beckham!
The final member of this group is Kenny Bell. At 6’1”, Bell has solid height for the position, but he is much too lean for his height at only 197 pounds. His hands and arms are also a little bit on the smaller side of what you would like from an NFL receiver. What Bell does have is explosiveness. His straight line speed, acceleration, lower body explosiveness, and most impressively his change of direction ability were all exceptional. His three cone drill was the third best of the receiver group.
Bell is going to struggle with press coverage and bigger defenders in the NFL unless he can add some muscle. He also needs to work on refining his route running a little bit, but he has nice hands, good body awareness and can make the big play when needed. He isn’t going to be anyone’s start receiver, but he could develop into a solid compliment in the NFL and makes a very solid third round fantasy selection.
Good (Scores between 0 and 2. Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, and Dwayne Bowe)
Ty Montgomery (1.880, 3.866 without height)
Cam Worthy (1.631, 0.656 without height)
Kevin White (1.542, 0.867 without height)
Jaelen Strong (1.450)
Geremy Davis (1.043)
Tre McBride (0.889, 1.933 without height)
Darren Waller (0.796, -1.702 without height)
Devin Funchess (0.234, -1.607 without height)
Three more of this year’s top receivers show up in this next tier of scores. White, Strong, and Funchess will all be featured in part three of this analysis where I break down each of the top ten receivers, so let me focus on the lesser known guys here.
Ty Montgomery is a very interesting player from a metric standpoint because things just don’t match up. He’s an even six feet tall, but he’s built like a brick house, checking in at over 220 pounds and with massive 10.125” hands. Yet his arms were extremely short for his size. So he has a great build, huge hands, but little arms. You would think he would catch everything thrown his way with hands that large, but he showed a lot of issues with drops in college. To me he looks like more of a running back who can catch passes than a true wide receiver. Otherwise he might be drafted purely as a returner given his production in that role in college.
Worthy and Davis are two players who weren’t on my radar until their names popped up for this article. Worthy didn’t do any of the drills at the combine, so his name pops up here purely due to him being a bigger receiver. There isn’t much to see as far as he is concerned. Davis has the look of a possession receiver with a big frame and solid hands. He is severely lacking when it comes to speed, but I think he could be a chain mover as a situational receiver. Unfortunately that means he is a very low ceiling fantasy player who won’t do much for your team. You’re better off looking elsewhere for your late round fliers.
Tre McBride might be one of those places to look for your flier. McBride is a small school prospect who is a little bit on the smaller size in terms of his height and his hands. However, he showed nice speed and solid acceleration at the combine. During his games, he was inconsistent as a route runner and sometimes just plain sloppy. This limited his ability to gain separation at times even with his physical tools. I think he can refine his route running with some good coaching. When that happens, you could be looking at a very solid compliment on an NFL team and potentially WR3 numbers for your fantasy team.
The last player in this group is Darren Waller. The biggest receiver in this year’s draft class at 6’6” and almost 240 pounds, Waller comes out of Georgia Tech. This means his production and route running skills are going to be more than a little deficient. Unfortunately for him, he’s even worse than most coming out of Georgia Tech. Athletically there is some promise, but I think he would be much better served hitting the gym, adding 20 pounds of muscle, and turning himself into a tight end at the next level. If he does that, he could be a solid player in a few years.
That’s it for the 2015 rookie wide receivers who scored above the average of the current fantasy starters at the wide receiver position. I’ll be back in a few days with a look at those who were below zero, some just a little bit and others by a whole lot. Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean they are doomed to fail. Anyone above -2 is a fit physically and some productive players might even go a little bit lower if they are superb route runners. It just gets a lot harder when you aren’t as gifted from a physical standpoint.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
