Dynasty Duel: Allen Robinson
Nathan Powell’s Case For Robinson
The Allen Robinson hate slander has been at an all time high on the twitterverse lately, while I try and defend one of my favorite Sophomore Wide Receivers, my partner in crime for this article, Nick Whalen is helping lead the hate and he decided he wanted to lose a debate in article form, so here we are.
This will come as a surprise to no one, but rookie wide receivers tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, especially when they are in an offense led by a rookie quarterback who was terrible statistically. Robinson’s preseason/early season of his rookie year was stunted by injury. However, from week two to week ten, Robinson averaged 12.86 PPR points, only finishing below 10 PPR points twice – I think that is pretty impressive, especially for a player who only got in the end zone twice,
Robinson is a player who I expect to reach the end zone at a much higher rate than those two touchdowns in nine games throughout his career. Robinson scored 17 touchdowns in his final two years at Penn State and profiles similar to Dez Bryant metrically. Now, I’m going to diffuse some of the concerns people have about Robinson.
One of the concerns with him is his foot injury that ended his rookie campaign. I’m not a doctor, nor do I play one on television, so I talked with the DLF Doctor, Dr. Scott Peak. The good doctor said Robinson’s injury was a stress fracture in his foot, there are no specific reports, but it does not sound like a lisfranc injury, which is good. The fact Robinson did have surgery does hint to it being a fifth metatarsal or Jones fracture. Risk of reinjury is at 0-25%, with more advanced medical care, it is likely closer to 0 than 25. Dr. Peak says it is a relatively common injury, the concern would come if he refractured the same bone, like Julio Jones did. The normal recovery time for this injury is three months, so Robinson should be good to go for OTA’s. With that stamp of approval, I am not that worried about Robinson’s injury and it has a very minimal effect on how I value him in dynasty.
Another concern people have revolves around the possibly Blake Bortles is terrible. It’s definitely a possibility, but I’m going to give Bortles another season and hopefully some offensive lineman to prove he is a viable NFL starting quarterback. The Jaguars weapons offense (it may sound weird) is actually loaded with weapons – they now have Denard Robinson, Julius Thomas, Marqise Lee and Robinson, along the elephant in the room, Justin Blackmon. The main concern here is obviously Blackmon. Many consider him the best on the field wide receiver on the Jaguars roster, however, I am not one of those people. I am reluctant to bump down the value of Allen Robinson because a player with a checkered off the field history might possibly come back in 2015 and it might possibly be for the Jaguars. Even if Blackmon does come back, I think Robinson when healthy is still Blake Bortles’ best weapon, the only effect I think there would be fewer targets for Julius Thomas and Allen Hurns – I think Lee and Robinson are going to get the targets they need to live up to ADP.
Some consider Robinson and other sophomore recerivers to be reaches in startup drafts, I don’t think that is the case for two reasons.
1. I think after the first 13-15 picks in startups, there is a large tier of players for 2-3 rounds that I value relatively equally, which means I don’t think there are any “reaches” really.
2. 2014 was a historic year for rookie wide receivers, so I’m struggling to figure out why people are so insistent that 2015 can’t be a historic year for sophomore wide receivers.
Nick Whalen’s Case Against Robinson
I’m baffled people are taking Robinson at the end of the third round in startup drafts – his ADP was 34 for the month of March. This is the time of year when drafters go very young and drop the vets down too far. The Jaguars had high hopes for Marqise Lee, selecting him before Robinson in the NFL Draft and featured him in week one with 12.2 PPR points vs only one for Robinson. Then Lee sustained a hamstring injury during practice and was hobbled in week 2 before getting shut down for three weeks – that injury opened the door Robinson to become the main target in an offense lacking quality weapons.
Robinson only averaged 11.4 YPR, which tied him for 77th in the NFL, ironically with Lee and offseason addition Julius Thomas. He also only caught two touchdowns and just 59% of passes thrown his way, both underwhelming numbers. When I watched Robinson’s targets on film, I saw a player force-fed targets through screens, slants and hitches. I didn’t see a player who was talented enough to garner a ton of targets in the future.
To make things worse, Robinson broke a bone in his foot and didn’t play the last six games of the season. Foot injuries scare me because reinjury happens often – just ask Ahmad Bradshaw, Julio Jones, Marvin Jones, or Hakeem Nicks. After Robinson was out, Lee finished the season averaging 9.75 PPG as he was still dealing with injuries – this makes me wonder who will get the majority of targets if both players were healthy. Speaking of targets, I personally believe the 2015 season and beyond is going to have a lot more competition with Julius Thomas signing in Jacksonville. He signed for $24 million guaranteed and nine million as a year one salary. On top of that, Justin Blackmon could come back and I’ve heard rumors of them sniffing around free agent receivers. All this tells me they’re going to be giving Robinson fewer targets than he had in 2014.
In conclusion, Robinson was one of the only adequate weapons the Jaguars had for the nine weeks he was a starter. He produced a below average 11.4 YPC(77th in the NFL), two touchdowns, caught 59% of mostly short passes and finished 36th in PPG. Lee produced near Robinson numbers during the second half of the year while he was still injured. On top of that, Robinson is recovering from a broken foot and the Jaguars just spent millions of dollars bringing in one of the best TE’s in the game. We still don’t even know if Robinson will be a top two target on his own team, but you’re going to spend near an ADP 34 on Robinson? I feel that’s just asking for disappointment.
What do you think of Allen Robinson’s current ADP? Is it absurd, just right or even too low? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
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