Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Quote of the Week
Mainly I enjoyed this quote because it simply reminded me how out of touch the NFL executives are with their fan base. We enjoy it when players can celebrate and express themselves for our ENTERTAINMENT (and theirs). We as fans can’t stop pulling our hair out though when it comes to simple rules of the game and nonsensical statements offering no clarity on said rules.
The NFL: where policing fake crowd noise, GM texts, gold shoes and high socks are priority but still have no clue what a reception is.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) March 30, 2015
Michael Floyd, WR ARI
I was drawn to this quote from Pat Thorman not because he is necessarily making a statement for or against either player, but it made me rethink my stance on Michael Floyd.
Mike Floyd saw ~ 1/4th of Andre Johnson’s RZ tgts (7 v 26), had 2x as many TD (6 v 3) & same FP/gm (7.4 v 7.3). Has ~ same recent #MFL10 ADP
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) April 1, 2015
[inlinead]If you ask most fantasy players about Floyd’s 2014 season, I would assume you would get nothing but negative commentary. Floyd was coming off a 1,000 yard season and was expected to challenge Larry Fitzgerald for the Cardinals’ number one wide receiver in terms of stats. Floyd was drafted accordingly as a clear WR2 but failed to live up to the hype. Part of his failures can easily be placed on the fact that Arizona’s quarterback situation became a train wreck due to injuries. Floyd was also mainly used as a vertical deep threat and carried the “boom or bust” moniker. His catch rate also dropped ten percentage points from the previous season to simply being a 50/50 guy. When looking at the DLF rankings at wide receiver, Floyd comes in at 21 overall. The interesting thing about this aggregate ranking though is that five rankers had him between 26th to 33rd overall while another four rankers placed him between 13th to 17th overall.
He still possesses the positives of youth and has displayed the ability to produce within the optimal situation. The negatives though remain that even with Carson Palmer back at quarterback you cannot feel great long-term and the team has pushed him into a role difficult to exceed within. Looking back at the rankings I think it is pretty clear that you can either find fantasy owners who still value him in dynasty as a clear WR2 or nothing more than a marginal WR3. If you believe in Floyd as a weekly contributor I would suggest checking in with his owner and determining if the Cardinal can be acquired at a discount. Personally I lean more towards the WR3 level so i would be finding owners who still believe in his upside and ship him out.
Ladarius Green, TE SD
Another fantasy player who clearly did not meet expectations last season was Chargers tight end Ladarius Green. Most expected his role would jump significantly as Antonio Gates could not remain the elite option for Philip Rivers after eleven hall of fame seasons. That, of course, was completely wrong and Green remained an afterthought in the offense. Adam Levitan commented on a recent quote from Chargers Coach Mike McCoy and Ladariuss usage,
Talk is cheap McCoy. RT @UTgehlken Ladarius Green had 19 catches in 2014. Mike McCoy: “We need to use him more.”
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 24, 2015
This serves as a reminder that during the off-season you almost always hear nothing but praise and commitment to improvement for players. The off-season hype builds, yet when the games are played everyone is left wondering what happened. Gates is the final year of his contract with the Chargers, but so is Green. One would assume Green would be resigned but to expect him to become Antonio Gates even if Gates is gone seems unlikely at this point. If he was truly an amazing talent I highly doubt the Chargers staff would have played him a third of the snaps as Gates. With so many other replaceable options at the tight end position I am not wasting my time on hoping Green gets the opportunity and then can actually finally meet his lofty expectations.
Tight Ends in 2015
This tweet from Adam Pfeifer sums up perfectly how I am approaching the tight end position in 2015 and beyond,
Still have to do these TE rankings and I just want to stop after Gronk.
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) April 1, 2015
Rob Gronkowski is the clear number one tight end and I don’t believe it to be close. Sure he has some injury concerns that many will cite but I don’t value past injury history as much as others. Today I am ready to fully invest in Gronkowski or wait and see who is left to place in my rosters. Other top tight ends still have question marks that make me want to simply avoid spending high draft picks or valuable pieces for. Jimmy Graham is moving to a much more conservative offense, Julius Thomas is in Jacksonville (sorry Jaguars fans), Greg Olsen is getting older and Travis Kelce has Alex Smith throwing him passes.
Alfred Morris, RB WAS
Washington’s Alfred Morris often times come off getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment – “No Respect.” Of course, for a running back who has seen his rushing stats continue to drop over his three year career, it could be somewhat understood. In his rookie season he rushed for 1,600 yards at 4.8 yards per carry compared to 2014 where he managed just under 1,100 yards at only 4.1 yards per touch. He hit double digit touchdowns in his rookie season as well and failed to hit double digits since. Morris is also not a factor in the receiving game for the most part but as DLF’s Karl Safchick noted he has been a staple at the top of the running bank standings,
Alfred Morris is 7th in ppr RB points since joining the league and is younger than all those in front of him.
— Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) March 23, 2015
John Paulsen also commented on Morris’ draft status and the value he can provide stating,
Alfred Morris is going in the 5th round of early PPR drafts. Good value and a safe pick. He has finished 7th, 19th, 17th in L3 years.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) March 30, 2015
Despite a marginal 2014 there is also the arrival of Bill Callahan as Washington’s new offensive line coach. Callahan was in Dallas last season and while his offensive line will not be of the same caliber in his new home, he should bring more focus and physicality to the running game. Washington finished in the lower half of the league in attempts last season and the early sense from writers around the team is that team will not look to throw as often and rely on Morris more. I would not be surprised to see the team add another running back through the draft, but Alfred Morris is one of the more dependable options as a RB2 and still is relatively young.
Shane Vereen, RB NYG
The New York Giants targeted Shane Vereen early in free agency likely hoping to add a veteran presence with a seemingly different skill set compared to the runners already on the roster. Vereen has proven to be an effective runner and pass catcher from his time in New England and coach Tom Coughlin sees him more than just a third down back. While this is great news to his current owners, not everyone in the fantasy community is ready to anoint Vereen a fantasy asset based on “coach speak” as Evan Silva tweeted,
Not buying rhetoric of #Giants using Vereen as more than passing-down back. Purely a role player. Not lead back material. A poor man’s Gio.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) March 27, 2015
Tyler Buecher did share recent ADP trend data courtesy of RotoViz showing that most fantasy players are buying into Vereen as the most valuable running back on the Giants roster.
Interesting how Vereen has effected #NYG backfield. Finished PPR RB20/RB36 in ’14/’13 (8 games in ’13) – via @RotoViz pic.twitter.com/MXHXIOqhum
— Tyler Buecher (@gingersauce4u) March 30, 2015
Ever since his signing, both Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams’ fantasy stock has dropped steadily and depending on where they end up could become later round values. Jennings in particular was actually no slouch in the receiving game last season averaging 2.7 receptions per game compared to Vereen’s 3.2 with the Patriots. Jennings’ age and injury history are likely reasons owners will continue to be scared off so trying to figure out how each runner will play into the offense will be key. As a runner, Shane has been solid but never explosive and as Evan mentioned his build is not made for pure pounding. Unfortunately, I could see this backfield mirroring the uncertainty New England often times showed and no runner will truly emerge as an every week starter.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
