Small Sample Size: Wide Receivers

Russell Clay

perriman

If you’re unfamiliar with what small sample size players are, check out this previous article to get you up to speed.

This was a very interesting year for the wide receivers. Even though I was a lot happier with the results at running back when I looked closer, wide receivers appear to be, overall, a big ‘hit’ in year one.

As with the running backs, I will list the players in the order I ranked them before the season, let’s a take a look.

1.) Sammie Coates, Auburn
34 Receptions, 741 Receiving Yards, 21.8 Yards Per Reception and four touchdowns

Overall, it was more of what you saw in 2013 from Coates. A very explosive athlete, while in a small role, is a big play waiting to happen. Coates is one of the more highly debated players in the draft, and that’s partly because of his small sample size. It is a little strange to me his role actually decreased in 2014, but keeping that yards per reception up at ridiculous levels keeps me optimistic. While I’m not totally buying Coates for NFL fantasy purposes, the goal of drafting developmental players is the hope they will reach the NFL, and Coates will most certainly do that. This is a hit.

2.) Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
55 Receptions, 1,086 Receiving Yards, 19.7 Yards Per Reception, ten Touchdowns

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Ding ding ding!!! This is the type of stuff we’re looking for. I wrote about Carroo right around the time I started looking into these small sample size players. His numbers stood out among the rest, most notably the fact he caught a touchdown on 32% of his receptions. Fast forward a year and Carroo is arguably the best receiver in the Big Ten. He didn’t enter the draft this year, but he is firmly on the radar of NFL teams and scouts. As long as he doesn’t sustain a major injury (knock on wood) in 2015, I expect him to go somewhere around the second or third round. Carroo is a hit.

3.) Mekale McKay, Cincinnati
44 Receptions, 725 Receiving Yards, 16.5 Yards Per Reception and eight touchdowns

I put McKay at #3 on the initial list, downsizing what I view as a potentially amazing ceiling because of all the players on the list, he had the least to go on, only 16 catches. Now, averaging 30 yards per catch and scoring touchdowns on seven of those 16 receptions? That’s downright incredible. While he regressed in efficiency, I loved seeing his role and volume increase, while still showing he had the ability for big plays and touchdowns. I haven’t heard a peep from anyone about him so far this offseason, so this could be a great buy low later in drafts, At 6’6” and possessing that big play ability, McKay could make a quantum leap value-wise once more people get a good look at him. I would consider McKay a tentative hit, but we still have to wait to see how he does in 2015.

4.) Breshad Perriman, UCF
50 Receptions, 1,044 Receiving Yards, 20.9 Yards Per Receptions and nine touchdowns

While UCF’s offense regressed with the losses of Storm Johnson and Blake Bortles, Perriman kept the same efficiency with an even bigger role. Perriman showed he wasn’t a product of having a first round quarterback on his team and showed he can thrive in any college offense. He had five more touchdowns in 2014 than 2013, and on only 11 more receptions. Perriman is now garnering first round hype in this year’s draft. This is a hit.

5.) Shaq Roland, South Carolina
26 Receptions, 356 Receiving Yards, 13.7 Yards Per Reception and five touchdowns

While I ranked him #5 on this list, I was very excited about Roland heading into last year and he was one of my main under the radar players. Although Roland will go down as a miss, I’m not entirely sure he got a fair shake at USC. The loss of Bruce Ellington opened up yards and targets, the emergence of Pharoh Cooper swiftly snatched up all of that production, and then some. Roland transferred since the season was over, so I’m guessing that the writing was on the wall his role wasn’t going to increase next season. Roland goes down as a miss, for now.

6.) Devon Cajuste, Stanford
34 Receptions, 557 Receiving Yards, 16.4 Yards Per Reception and six Touchdowns

For a bigger receiver, his YPR was extremely impressive, and I’m not totally shocked it went down almost six yards in 2014. Another thing I don’t particularly like is that his role, while having increased, wasn’t enough to bring him out of small sample size range. Cajuste has the look of a bruising #1 NFL wide receiver, but I’m not sure that the rest of his game is developed enough to follow suit. Cajuste goes down as a tentative miss, but with a ‘he could still surprise me’ asterisk.

Updated Criteria

  • School had six or more wins in previous season
  • Can’t be a senior heading into next season
  • At least 17 yards per catch
  • Under 50 catches (Minimum of 10)
  • At least 10% of catches went for touchdowns
  • Must be from a power conference (Big Ten, SEC, Pac 12, etc)

Qualifying Players

  • Malachi Dupre, LSU
  • Donovahn Jones, Minnesota
  • Amba Etta-Tawo, Maryland
  • John Ross, Washington
  • Travin Dural, LSU
  • Thomas Duarte, UCLA
  • Darren Carrington, Oregon
  • Devin Lauderdale, Texas Tech
  • Armanti Foreman, Texas
  • John Diarse, LSU
  • Drew Morgan, Arkansas
  • Mack Hollins, North Carolina
  • Jordan Westerkamp, Nebraska

How I’d Rank Them

  1. Malachi Dupre, LSU
  2. Mack Hollins, North Carolina
  3. Travin Dural, LSU
  4. John Diarse, LSU
  5. Jordan Westerkamp, Nebraska
  6. Darren Carrington, Oregon
  7. Thomas Duarte, UCLA
  8. Devin Lauderdale, Texas Tech
  9. John Ross, Washington
  10. Donovahn Jones, Minnesota
  11. Amba Etta-Tawo, Maryland
  12. Armanti Foreman, Texas
  13. Drew Morgan, Arkansas

Just Missed The List

  • Angelo Jean-Louis, Marshall (Non Power Conference)
  • Chris Moore, Cincinnati (Senior in 2015)
  • Ermon Lane, Florida State (Touchdown %)
  • Joe Morrow, Mississippi State(Senior in 2015)
  • Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech (Non Power Conference)
  • Shaedon Meadors, Appalachian State (Non Power Conference)

Hope this helps! A lot of fun names on the list this year, I advise checking them all out, even if you aren’t in a deep developmental league.

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