Miami Makeover

Zach Bahner Posted On March 26, 2015

cameron

The Dolphins have been one of the most active teams in free agency this off-season, adding some new fire power to both their offense and defense. After applying the transition tag to incumbent starting tight end Charles Clay, they pursued former Browns tight end Jordan Cameron, who signed with the team on March 12, 2015, for two years and $15 million. They then added Kenny Stills through trade, sent wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings and eventually lost Clay to the Buffalo Bills. Let’s take a look at what this does to player values in the revamped Miami offense.

Jordan Cameron, TE MIA

After being stuck in a quarterback wasteland for the first four years of his career, Cameron now arrives in Miami with an up and coming franchise quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. Without a doubt his situation has improved, but he still has some major question marks. He has had groin, concussion, A/C joint and rib injuries throughout his four year career, but the concussion history is the injury of concern. He is at a higher risk than most players to miss time, so he has remained my eighth ranked tight end even after moving to Miami.

In the upcoming season, I expect Cameron to see the second or third highest targets on the team and be in the top two in red zone targets. While it’s reasonable to expect him to miss some time, I prefer to look at per game production rather than whole season production. That’s why we draft more than one at the position. A per game average of 4.5/55/.4 is within reason and would extrapolate out to roughly 75/825/6. That’s TE1 production.

Handcuffing is not something usually talked about with the tight end position, but drafting Dion Sims as a TE3/4 to go behind Cameron would not be a bad decision. Sims performed well when filling in for injured Clay last season and should see more playing time in two tight end sets this season. It isn’t unreasonable for Sims to take over as the starter if Cameron is not re-signed in two years. He’s a developing player on the rise.

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

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After putting up solid numbers as a rookie, Landry should be able to build in his sophomore season. Improving on his 84/758/5 stat line is to be expected, especially in the yardage category. Cameron’s arrival should clear out more space in the middle of the field for Landry and lead to a high YPC. Landry will likely lead the team in targets this year and should have the steadiest production out of Miami’s pass catchers. Landry is a dynasty WR2 who will probably see steady WR3 production in 2015. He will be a volume player who won’t have as many hills or valleys over the season as Cameron or Stills. Improving his numbers to 90/900/6 is within reason.

Kenny Stills, WR MIA

It’s difficult to see what the Saints were trying to do when they traded away Jimmy Graham and Stills, but the Seahawks and Dolphins were happy to be the make these additions to their rosters. Stills had a productive second season in New Orleans and should see a rise in production again in his third year. He no longer has to compete for looks with the likes of Graham, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks or a stable of pass catching running backs. Tannehill isn’t exactly known for his long ball, but Stills fits what he does better than Wallace did. While he’s going to be much more boom or bust than Cameron and Landry, Stills also has the better chances at WR1 weeks. A stat line of 70/1,000/7 is on the conservative side of what I expect.

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

Nobody should be happier about the additions to the offense than Tannehill. He now has a better pass catching tight end and a deep threat wide receiver who is more than just a one trick pony. He has steadily improved in nearly all important quarterback stat categories over his three seasons in the league, and that should continue in his fourth year. He needs to continue working on his deep ball accuracy, but he now has pass catchers who are better suited for the skill set that he currently has. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t reach 4,200 yards and 30 touchdown passes this year. He’s my sixth rated quarterback and seventh in the DLF composite rankings.

Lamar Miller, RB MIA

When Knowshon Moreno was lost for the season early in 2014 it finally became Miller’s time to shine. He set career marks across the board and should do the same in 2015. The passing game now commands some respect, and that will only lead to easier opportunities for Miller, especially if Miami is able to improve the guard position through free agency or the draft. He probably still won’t see 20 rushes per game, but he should still be drafted as an RB1 in startups. There aren’t many backs in the league who can be counted on to be the bell cow of their team, and right now, Miller is one of them.

This is an offense on the rise, and I think most of these players will have higher ADPs next off-season. Even if you don’t see them as long term fantasy assets, they are good buys this year to be sold next year. While I wouldn’t break the bank to trade for any of these players, nearly all of them are more valuable than where they are currently being drafted in startups.

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