Dynasty Impact: Justin Forsett Re-signs wigh the Ravens

Jacob Feldman

forsett

If we went back to shortly after the NFL draft last year and asked people to name the leading rusher for the Ravens in 2014, most would have said Ray Rice. Even though he was in the middle of the domestic assault scandal, at the time it was believed he would receive minimal punishment if any since it was all before “the tape.” A few believers might have chimed in with the recently released Bernard Pierce or even the 2014 rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro if they were really bold. I can’t recall anyone going so far as mentioning Justin Forsett’s name in any of this. At most, Forsett was viewed as a third down back during what was supposed to be a small suspension for Rice.

Fast forward and Forsett was squarely the guy for the Ravens. He made the most of his opportunities and posted career highs in every rushing category last season. He had 235 carries for 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns to go with an additional 44 receptions for another 263 yards – this was good enough for him to be a top ten running back in most scoring systems. Considering he was likely an end of the bench player or even a waiver wire addition, that is quite the find! Some might call 2014 a breakout for Forsett, but can a running back really breakout at age 29?

There was a little bit of drama with where Forsett would go, but he ultimately made the best choice and resigned with the only team to ever give him a chance at a starting role. His three-year, $9 million contract is very modest for a starting running back and hints that Forsett might not return to his full-time role. I still think it was the best choice for both him and the team, especially with Marc Trestman coming to town.

It’s time to take a closer look at the impact of the signing.

Justin Forsett, RB BAL

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Forsett will turn 30 right around the sixth week of the 2015 season, so he isn’t a long term option. The question is if he can be a starting running back in 2015 and maybe into 2016. On the plus side of the column for him being a valuable asset is the lack of competition currently on the roster, especially with Pierce getting released due to a DUI. While I fully expect the Ravens to add to their running backs through the draft, they do have quite a few needs elsewhere, especially at wide receiver. Another big item in his favor is his ability in the passing game and Trestman’s fondness for using pass catching running backs.

On the downside of the ledger aside from his age and lack of size, which hindered his ability between the tackles and in short yardage situations, his 2014 numbers require a closer look. For the first few weeks of the 2014 season, Forsett was being used as more of a committee back. It wasn’t until the second half of the season when he really took over as the lead guy. During that time, Forsett faced only two run defenses in the top half of the NFL. Against those two defenses he had 16 carries for 48 yards and 10 carries for 19 yards. For the most part, Forsett abused bad run defenses, was fairly average against middle of the road defenses and looked pretty terrible against good run defenses – this doesn’t say a whole lot about his chances of staying the starter if there is some quality competition.

Ultimately, I feel Forsett was re-signed by the Ravens to be the passing down specialist and early down insurance for the team. He’ll excel in the passing role with Trestman’s game plan, but Taliaferro and possibility a running back to be named later will definitely be involved. They will have short yardage work at a minimum and most likely a fair amount of early down work as well. If you can find someone who thinks Forsett will repeat last year, it is time to sell. I think he is more of a RB3 in 2015 with RB2 upside if no one else proves worthy of meaningful snaps.

Lorenzo Taliaferro

Thanks to everyone else getting cut for off the field misconduct, Taliaferro currently finds himself behind the soon to be 30-year old Forsett on the depth chart. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of Taliaferro. I think he is a big power back but with limited skills in other areas. I don’t think he can be a full time rusher in the NFL or even a long-term leader of a committee. I think he’s likely to be limited to about 6-10 carries a game in short yardage and change of pace roles but not much else. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens draft another running back. If it is someone in the first few rounds, it says a lot about how the Ravens view Taliaferro. If they skip running back in the draft or only use a sixth or seventh round pick on one, it means they don’t share my view of him. Either way, I think he’s going to hold limited value this season and might only see real value if Forsett gets hurt.

Running back to be named later

I don’t think the Ravens are going to go into the 2015 season with Forsett, Taliaferro and a whole lot of nothing else on their depth chart. I think it is almost certain they add something to the mix. The price they pay for it will say a whole lot about how they view Taliaferro. If the Ravens go after one of the top rookie running backs in the second or third round, they would likely shoot up draft boards. The Ravens would be a very nice landing spot for a lot of rookies.

Joe Flacco

Flacco should be pretty happy Forsett came back. Not only due to the lack of talent at the running back position on the rest of the roster, but also because Forsett is an asset in the passing game. While Forsett might not be quite as dynamic as he was after the catch, he can actually run routes, understands the finer points of making screens work and can actually be trusted to pick up blitzes and block defenders. The Ravens weren’t going to find a better running back in the passing game than Forsett, so Flacco should be happy he is coming back. Though what Flacco really needs are a few more people to throw the ball to in 2015. The cupboards are pretty bare right now in the pass catcher department.

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jacob feldman