Chapped Hyde? Reggie Bush signs with the 49ers
The last couple months have been a transition period for the 49ers. On top of changing coaching staffs this off-season, the former face of the franchise Frank Gore moved on to Indianapolis.
There are countless question marks in San Francisco, surrounding both the offense and the defense. Head Coach Jim Tomsula and offensive coordinator Geep Chryst are both relative unknowns. They’ve spoken publicly that they plan on featuring a heavy rushing attack but nobody knows exactly how they’ll use second-year runner Carlos Hyde and the newly signed Reggie Bush. How a running quarterback like Colin Kaepernick fits in is also a rather large question mark at this point.
Let’s see if we can identify what the loss of Gore, addition of Bush, and changes along the coaching staff will do for the fantasy value of the players involved.
Reggie Bush, RB SF
Bush disappointed in 2014 with the Lions, running for just 297 yards on 76 carries (3.9 YPC) with a pair of touchdowns while catching 40 passes for 253 yards. An injured ankle limited him severely as he missed five games in the middle of the season and didn’t look like himself when he was on the field.
Now on the wrong side of 30 years old and coming off a season where he posted his lowest yardage totals and worst fantasy numbers since 2011 (his final year with the Saints), it’s difficult not to wonder if Bush’s best years are behind him. After returning from injury a year ago, he struggled to make defenders miss in the open field and didn’t have the burst that once made him so electrifying. Many have pointed to the ankle injury as the cause for the down year look at his impressive touchdown run against the Cowboys in the playoffs as an indication that he’s still as elusive as he once was. While the injury may explain his mediocre numbers, it’s still quite difficult to get excited about a 30-year old tailback likely to be nothing more than a passing down contributor.
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While it’s impossible to tell exactly how Tomsula and Chryst will split up the playing time in the backfield, it’s hard to believe they’d envision anything close to an even timeshare.
At this point in his career, Bush is probably a more productive NFL running back than he is a fantasy running back. Most likely, he’ll get between six and 10 touches per week which won’t help dynasty owners outside of being an insurance policy for Hyde and a bye week fill in as an RB4 or RB5.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
After a solid but unspectacular rookie season backing up Gore where he ran for 333 yards on 83 carries (4.0 YPC) and scored three times, Hyde is in line to be the primary ball carrier for the 49ers this year.
Going into his second season in the league, the buzz surrounding Hyde has gotten stronger as the off-season has unfolded. His ADP according to Ryan McDowell’s mock drafts in January, before it was clear if the 49ers wanted Gore back, put him near the end of round three at 35.67. In February, after it was becoming apparent Gore was no longer in San Francisco’s plans, it rose slightly to 34.00. By the time free agency was starting, Hyde’s March ADP climbed up to 30.33 and he was being chosen as highly as number 19 overall.
While moving up five picks in ADP isn’t drastic for most, doing so in the top three rounds is difficult in a three month span. It’s unclear at this point if the Bush signing will affect Hyde’s ADP greatly, but it’s clear that dynasty owners were becoming more and more willing to gamble on Hyde’s upside early in startups at least up to the point that Bush signed.
So the question remains, how will Bush’s presence affect Hyde?
On the surface, the Bush signing should only really upset Hyde’s potential in the passing game. Before the signing, the possibility existed Hyde could be featured on early downs in the running game and perhaps split passing down reps with Kendall Hunter. With a true third down specialist onboard though, it’s unlikely Hyde gets that opportunity.
With that said, the Bush signing isn’t necessarily bad for Hyde. With only Hunter to back him up, another running back was bound to be added to the roster. The 49ers bringing in a 30-year old tailback who is likely to be nothing more than a change-of-pace or third down option on passing downs shows the San Francisco front office and coaching staff has faith in Hyde to be their lead runner.
Overall, Bush’s injury history and ineffectiveness last year running the ball puts Hyde in little danger of losing early down reps as long as he produces. Although he’s an unproven runner, Hyde possesses a lot of what is required to be a top NFL tailback. He’s a bruising, attacking runner, yet he has the athleticism and footwork of a back much smaller than he is.
Because he’s in an offense likely to make the running game a focal point, Hyde has the opportunity to realize his potential as a low-end RB1 as early as this season. Having Bush in San Francisco won’t keep him from doing so. It’s completely up to him.
If you were willing to spend a late second or early third round start up pick on Hyde earlier this off-season, the addition of Bush shouldn’t keep you from doing so now. He’s just as much a breakout candidate now as he was before Bush signed.
Kendall Hunter, RB SF
Nobody is affected more by the arrival of Bush than Hunter. For a brief time, he was in line to be the change of pace back as well as primary third down back for the 49ers in 2015. Considering his injury history (including the torn ACL he suffered a year ago), it’s easy to see why the 49ers needed another option.
Hunter has proven when healthy he can be an effective pass catcher and part time runner since entering the league. Averaging 4.6 yards per carry so far in his career, he’s shown explosiveness and quick feet as a runner.
Many dynasty owners have held on to Hunter in hopes that he’d get one more opportunity to be a regular contributor. At this point, he’ll need an injury to either Hyde or Bush to get that chance. Even if that happens, it’s unlikely Hunter will be handed more than a part time role as he’s never proven he could handle that workload.
Hunter still has upside and talent to be a contributor to both the 49ers and fantasy teams but in leagues with limited roster space, it’s becoming more and more difficult to roster him. If he doesn’t have a promising pre-season or suffers another injury, it will be time to move on.
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