Small Sample Size: Running Backs

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As with Rushing Receivers, I wanted to review of another group I kept an eye on this year, small sample size players. For those of you that haven’t seen yet, here’s the article I wrote pre-2014. It was a wild ride and a lot of fun to finally get to this point. As you’d expect, these players bounced in a bunch of different directions.

First, I want to review 2014, the players that fit the criteria, and how they wound up.

Let’s start with the running backs in order of how I ranked them in the initial article:

1.) Derrick Henry, Alabama
172 carries, 990 yards, 5.8 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns
Five receptions, 133 yards and 26.6 yards per reception, two receiving touchdowns

This is a hit. While he was highly regarded last offseason at this time even with his small sample, this is a good sign that a player of his caliber made the cut. He didn’t maintain the Melvin Gordon ‘once in a lifetime efficiency’ type numbers, but he still performed very well. One of the bigger things that piqued my interest was Henry’s receptions, where three of his five went for 29+ yards. Henry loves getting into space, and once he’s there, his combination of power and speed is very difficult to deal with. I see Henry as a future late first round pick.

2.) Corey Clement, Wisconsin
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147 carries, 949 rushing yards, 6.5 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns
14 receptions, 119 yards and two receiving touchdowns

This is another hit. While Clement was clearly only going to get the leftovers after Gordon was finished, he performed admirably when given the opportunity, and would’ve had a bigger slice of the pie had he been at any other school in the country (other than Georgia). Clement is a powerful, bruising back with a solid pedigree and what looks like a workhorse role in a stat-friendly system. I see Clement as a future second round prospect.

3.) Corey Grant, Auburn*
60 carries, 364 yards, 6.1 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns
10 receptions, 92 yards 9.2 yards per reception and one receiving touchdown

This is certainly not what you wanted to see, in fact Grant is basically checking off every box that you don’t want to see. Lack of Increased role, even in senior year? Yup. Regression in stats? Yup. Is this the end of the road for Grant? Maybe not. I still think he’s a nice speed back option who could make the end of a NFL roster, but as far as this practice goes, he goes down as a miss.

 4.) Karlos Williams, Florida State*
150 carries, 689 yards, 4.6 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns
29 receptions, 265 yards, 9.1 yards per catch and 1 receiving touchdown

Williams is one of the more interesting prospects in the 2015 class, while he regressed a ton from his eight yards per carry rushing numbers the year before, he showed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Not to mention he performed well at the combine this year, he’s someone that I’ll be watching very closely during draft weekend. While I cringe painfully at making this comparison, when you look at college careers only, Williams tight, slightly uncomfortable running style compares to Demarco Murray. While Murray became a special NFL talent, there was a time when he was not thought of as a high talent prospect, he was an injury prone third round draft pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

*Somehow Grant and Williams snuck past me. Both were, in fact, seniors heading into last season. Therefore they’re disqualified, sadly.

5.) Kenyan Drake, Alabama

22 carries, 112 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns
Five receptions, 159 yards, 31.8 yards per reception and two receiving touchdowns

Drake’s season was cut short due to a horrible looking broken leg, but he will be back at Alabama next season. With even less of a sample size to work with than the year before, I’m putting much into his 22 carries. I do like his receiving stats, but overall I’m taking these with a grain of salt. Temper your expectations for next season considering the broken leg, but he may be forgotten late in devy drafts, I would take a flier on him. Drake goes down as not applicable.

6.) Terrence Magee, LSU
112 carries, 571 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns
17 receptions, 171 receiving yards and 10.1 yards per reception 

The biggest struggle for Magee in 2014 was the crowded backfield he had to deal with at LSU. While he was another player that regressed in terms of pure rushing totals, I really like his receiving stats. As an NFL prospect, he doesn’t get the heart pumping. We’ll have to wait and see on where or even if he gets drafted to confirm everything, but I’d count this one as a miss for now.

7.) Dwayne Washington, Washington
132 carries, 697 yards, 5.3 and nine rushing touchdowns
15 receptions, 91 receiving yards and 6.1 yards per reception

Washington’s end of season totals don’t tell the story. He finished the regular season with three straight 100 yard rushing games, while at the same time never going over 19 carries. He had at least one touchdown in all of those games, at least one 60+ yard run and averaged 7.8 yards per carry in that span. That is pure domination. And while we do have to take the entire season in context, that three game run has me extremely excited about next year. While Lavon Coleman is going to take some carries, Washington should be given a big enough role to raise more than a few eyebrows. I’ll call this a tentative hit.

Now, on to 2015!

I’ve tweaked things a tad, so here is the updated criteria.

• School had six or more wins the previous season
• Can’t be a senior heading into upcoming season
• At least seven yards per carry
• Under 100 carries (minimum of 20)
• At least 8% of touches went for touchdowns
• Must weigh over 190 pounds
• Plays for a power conference (Big Ten, SEC, Pac 12, etc)

Results

James White, Texas A&M

Well, what do you guys think? Pretty solid list, huh? Your eyes aren’t deceiving you, one player qualified in 2014. There were quite a few that missed by one category, and I wanted to sneak them on with an asterisk, but then I remembered why I made all these guidelines in the first place. My theory on the lack of qualifying players is that the awesome young talents ended up getting big enough workloads that they’ve already broken out, with Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott being the main examples.

Here are the players who just missed the list, along with the category that kept them off the list:

• L.J Scott, Louisville (Weight)
• Mark Dodson, Ole Miss (Yards Per Carry)
• Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss (Yards Per Carry)
• Erick Evans, North Texas (Non Power Conference)
• Justin Stockton, Texas Tech (weight)
• Rachid Ibrahim, Pittsburgh (Weight)
• Shaun Wilson, Duke (Weight)
• Adam Lane, Florida (TD %)
• Keyante Green, Purdue (TD %)

Based on this group, I’m most optimistic about LJ Scott and Rachid Ibrahim. I think there’s a solid chance of breakout potential with both as Scott just missed out on the Yards per Carry(.1 short of 7) and Ibrahim has a frame that looks to be able to add bulk. But again, I say this with caution, we can’t project with linear optimism. So while I like them, they will not receive the seal of approval.

Hope this helps!  There are a lot of lottery tickets on this list that will hopefully help and guide you through the deeper rounds of your devy drafts. Stay tuned, there’s a part two coming for wide receivers.

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