The RBs are falling!

Nick Whalen

ajayi

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The aftermath of the NFL Scouting Combine for the running back position has been drastic. From what I’m hearing, some owners have now significantly diminished their expectations of this running back class at the NFL level. Why? They value the NFL Combine much higher than I do.

Even though I don’t view the combine as more than 20% in my evaluation of a prospect, let’s take a look at overall combine numbers at the running back position. I analyzed the data of fantasy relevant backs over 210 pounds from the 2009 combine until present. It wouldn’t be fair to compare smaller backs to bigger backs, so that’s why I chose to dismiss players under 210 pounds.

The table below include the results of the drills participated at the combine. Between the brackets is the rank among all of the running backs over the seven year period in that individual drill. I then added all the rankings of the individual player together and divided it by the number of drills they participated in at the combine. You can find that number on the last column on the right, the lower that overall number the better the prospect ranks comparatively over the last seven years.

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rbstats

One of the most interesting conclusions from the data is fantasy football success doesn’t appear to be tied with combine performance. The bottom half of the list headlined by: Le’Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Jeremy Hill, Knowshown Moreno, Rashad Jennings, Andre Ellington, and CJ Anderson have been just as successful than the top half of the list headlined by: Ben Tate, Donald Brown, Demarco Murray, Mikel LeShoure, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Ryan Mathews, Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller and Shane Vereen.

It’s important to think about how each running back “wins” on the football field and whether the athleticism factors into that equation. For example, Morris’ strength is in his tough running style and determination. His below average combine performance didn’t affect his outcome as much as a player like Ellington that attempts to “win” more on his athletic prowess. The combine should be viewed more of as a tool to either confirm or deny what we see on the football field.

Now let’s see where this 2015 rookie class stacks up:

David Johnson headlines the class at number four overall and I found that shocking. He finished top six in every drill except for the short shuttle and did it all while weighing 224 pounds! Just an incredible performance from an FCS player and it should make people go watch his film.

Melvin Gordon ranked eighth and didn’t have the explosiveness that I expected. He performed great in the short shuttle (second) and the broad jump (third). However, it didn’t transition over to the 10 yard split (14), vertical jump (18), and three cone drill (17). With all of that said Gordon performed much better historically than expected and should be taken highly in rookie drafts.

Jay Ajayi was right behind Gordon ranking ninth and was more consistent overall. He finished good in the vertical jump (sixth) and short shuttle (third), but struggled in the three cone (19). Ajayi is my second ranked running back in this class and finishing in the top ten only confirms that he belongs in that area.

Javorius Allen surprisingly finished thirteenth overall and was in the teens in every drill, except for the ten yard split (sixth). Allen has been a player on the rise and might sneak into the second round of rookie drafts. Athletically, he deserves to be in that conversation and should garner a second look on tape.

Cameron Artis-Payne was twentieth overall and finished in the teens in the 40 yard dash (10), 10 yard split (13), and vertical jump (10). I think he’s one of the more underrated backs later in this rookie class and represents a good value athletically.

Karlos Williams (26), Mike Davis (27), and TJ Yeldon (29) all underwhelmed overall at the combine. Williams shined in the 40 yard dash (5), but was poor in most other drills. Davis had a great 10 yard split (6), but was below average in most other areas. Yeldon was average to below average in most drills and all three are viewed as limited athletes.

Josh Robinson (34) brings in the caboose to the entire study and on film he looks like a limited athlete. I don’t think Robinson lost any value because athletically isn’t where he wins on the football field.

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