The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On March 16, 2015

sanders

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

I am in a 12-team, non-PPR dynasty league that starts two receivers, one running back and a FLEX. I have Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb and Emmanuel Sanders as my receivers but am weak at running back, with just Frank Gore, Chris Ivory and the entire Giants backfield. I’m looking to deal Sanders for a running back but am not sure what a realistic return would be. I have pick 1.07 in this year’s rookie draft and have contemplated trading Sanders and 1.07 for 1.02 with the hopes of drafting Todd Gurley. Would this be an overpay or an underpay? On my bench I have Cody Latimer, Justin Hunter and Ka’Deem Carey as future prospects. – Alex in Canada

I’m an unabashed Emmanuel Sanders fan. He’s not the biggest guy, and he didn’t even have moderate success prior to his union with Peyton Manning and the Broncos, but there’s a reason he was pursued by New England and Denver in successive years – the guy can play. In fact, let’s consider the finer points of his year that was.

[inlinead]Sliding into the “Eric Decker” role, Sanders topped the current’s Jet’s seasonal bests (across two Manning-led years) in receptions (101 to 87) and yards (1,404 to 1,288), while scoring a career high nine touchdowns. All this was accomplished despite Manning completing 55 fewer passes for 750 fewer yards and 16 fewer touchdowns when compared to 2013. On a per-target basis, Sanders actually outperformed much more ballyhooed teammate Demaryius Thomas, with a point-per-target (PPT) figure of 1.38 compared to 1.24 PPT for DT (using non-PPR scoring).

At this point it likely stands to reason I’m presenting an argument about why you’re blind-stinking mad to get rid of Sanders, but the actuality is I want you to realize what you’re giving up. Because the truth is, given the non-PPR format and relatively light starting requirements (24-36 receivers will be starting across the league every week), Sanders loses value relative to where he might stand in a deeper, PPR setting. And with how deep the position currently stands, as well as your top pairing of starters in Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb, I agree with shifting your focus to your team’s backfield.

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times – running back is the most important position in a non-PPR league. Frank Gore is certainly a reasonable starter now that he’s a Colt, but your depth chart is severely lacking behind him. If you’re able to nab pick 1.02 for the combination of Sanders and pick 1.07, that’s a deal I’d choose to make.

With Torrey Smith now gone and Steve Smith 164 years old, does Kamar Aiken make a push into fantasy relevance in the Marc Trestman offense or do the Ravens go after the receiver position in the draft? – Colin in MD

Well they certainly need to do something. Between receiver Torrey Smith and tight end Owen Daniels, the Ravens are losing a combined 172 targets, 97 receptions, 1,294 yards and 15 touchdowns from their passing offense, not to mention a multitude of pass interference penalties. And with veteran Steve Smith Sr. cooling down after a hot start (just three games over 50 yards in the second half of the season), the depth chart is as inviting as any in the league.

A healthy Dennis Pitta would alleviate this concern, but at this stage in the game it appears just as likely he’ll call it a career as attempt to come back from a second dislocated hip. This places the burden squarely on the Ravens’ core of youngsters, including receivers Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown and Michael Campanaro, and tight end Crockett Gillmore. Let’s assess their chances below.

Though he faltered in his sophomore season, Brown has the best track record of the bunch. He put forward 524 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie, while also becoming the apple of DLF Senior Writer Karl Safchick’s eye (seriously dude, it’s starting to get pretty weird). I’d expect him to get the first crack at filling the void created by Baltimore’s tumultuous off-season.

Aiken and Campanaro would seem to be next up, with the former (6’2”, 215 pounds) functioning as a standard outside threat and the latter (5’9”, 185 pounds) manning the slot. Each showed well in limited stretches last year, catching a large percentage of their targets, and in Aiken’s case scoring the ball well (three touchdowns on 24 receptions). I’d place each about a half-tier below Brown, and would like to own them if my roster requirements allow it. Gillmore is a bit of a wild card, but is someone I’d like to own as well if I had the space – rookie tight ends rarely produce, but he flashed a bit towards the end of the season and into the playoffs.

With that said, and with the free agent pool being largely picked over, I absolutely expect the Ravens to address their pass-catching issues in the draft. If a first or second round pick is used to pick up a receiver, the bulk of the above can be largely ignored. However, as long as Marc Trestman is at the helm of an offense, it’s prudent to consider every piece of the pie.

With Minnesota picking up Mike Wallace in a trade, what is Cordarrelle Patterson’s value now? – Dan in MN

Wouldn’t you know it, when fellow DLF’er Jeff Miller puts down the light beer he can actually be a bit poignant! But while Jeff called out the folly of considering Vikings “receiver” Cordarrelle Patterson with a high draft pick or supreme trade value, I’m not sure any of us could’ve predicted what would come next. Long story short, Packers and Browns castoff Charles Johnson became the offense’s go-to guy late in the season, while Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright also bested the much-hyped sophomore’s numbers. Piling on, Minnesota just recently completed a trade acquiring talented veteran Mike Wallace from Miami.

So given this scenario, it’s not pretty right now. Sure, Jennings was just released, but this still means that, at best, Patterson is the team’s WR3, and perhaps the WR4 if you’re a Wright fan. Coupling this with Norv Turner’s seeming disdain for utilizing Patterson as “big Percy Harvin,” as evidenced by a mere 10 rushing attempts on the season, and CP will more than likely do little to nothing for your roster this year, unless you play in a league predicated solely on kick returns.

So yes, the ugly truth is Patterson’s value is down in a big way – but just how down? For me, I have him ranked as my dynasty WR60, and the DLF staff consensus places him a bit higher as the overall WR42, with a range of WR20-60. According to the most recent ADP data he’s the WR44, with an average startup position in the early eighth round (though it should be noted these drafts concluded before the acquisition of Wallace).

For a guy who was being drafted as a fringe WR1 just a year ago this is a huge fall from grace. Be it due to his poor route running, the emergence of the other receivers on the roster or anything in between, the Vikings brass simply didn’t view him on the same level as “fantasy Twitter” did. In fact, he very nearly appeared to be the only piece of the offense that didn’t improve last year.

So what’s an owner to do right now? I don’t think there’s any real possibility of selling, as it’s unlikely you’ll net anything more than a second round pick at the moment (and truthfully that doesn’t sound like terrible value to me). If you still believe, I suppose now, in the wake of the Wallace deal, is the time to float out a lowball offer in the hopes that CP isn’t the Trent Richardson of receivers. Regardless, expectations from this time a year ago should definitively be adjusted, and this once again should serve as a cautionary tale that measureables aren’t everything – players still need to actually be good at football.

We’ll have more on the Wallace deal and its impact on dynasty leagues later this week as well.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.