Post-Combine Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft, Round Three

Jacob Feldman

smelter

The combine recently wrapped up and there were definitely a few studs as well as several duds. Of course the biggest question every year is how much does the combine really matter? Can the “Underwear Olympics” actually predict future success in the NFL? There are definitely people all over the spectrum on that question, but there is one thing pretty much everyone can agree on. Running faster is better. Being stronger is better. The questions are of course centered around how much better.

That is an entirely different discussion though, so instead let’s focus on how the combine changed values for players. There were a few players who vaulted up draft boards and a few that fell. In order to help you figure out exactly what the combine did, I’m back with 11 other writers to bring you another mock draft. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish has that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. It is very important to keep in mind it is still early in the process. A lot of us are still watching games and re-evaluating our opinions. Plus the NFL draft and final landing positions for these plays will have profound impact. We all also have our favorites who we like more than most right now, so there will be some disagreement on where a player should have gone, but that is part of the fun!

If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:

  • Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
  • Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
  • Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong, especially at this early stage in the process.

In case you missed them, here are the previous rounds: First and Second.

3.01 – Stefon Diggs, WR Maryland
Previous Selection: 3.02

Brian’s thoughts: I love Diggs’ explosion and playmaking ability. It is probable he starts as a kick/punt returner and blossoms into a quality slot wide receiver. Diggs is a former five star wide receiver who is a great hands catcher and can produce after the catch. Diggs has an injury history that has limited his college production. He needs space to create after the catch and does not do a great job contending for passes in the air. His strength is on the ground with the ball in his hands. The right offensive coordinator could make him the steal of the rookie draft.

My thoughts: I was expecting Diggs to light up the combine and push his draft stock up a little bit as a result. After all, it was in part due to his athleticism that he was a five star recruit out of high school. Instead his combine was very average at best. He has a lean build, short arms and limited explosiveness. When you combine that with a rather disappointing college career you get someone I’m staying away from. I think the most likely result for Diggs is he gets drafted as a returner while being the third or fourth receiver on a team. I don’t see him turning things around at this point.

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3.02 – Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
Previous Selection: 2.06

George’s thoughts: A glutton for punishment, I took another shot on a boom or bust receiver with plus speed. Smith was an explosive playmaker for Ohio State (career 20.7 yards per catch, 25% touchdown rate) and was held back by limited targets and underthrown footballs. The combine helped to confirm his speed (4.42 40- yard dash) and he is the type of player who translates it to the field. However, much like my selection of Coates in round two, Smith struggles to catch the ball consistently. He is too focused on breaking the run to even corral the football at times, something that is troublesome but can be coached. Smith is frequently compared to DeSean Jackson and that’s an intriguing ceiling, but his floor is Darrius Heyward-Bey low.

My thoughts: If this mock is reflective of real life, George is a gambler! I’m a big fan of Smith, but I was a touch disappointed with his combine performance. I was really hoping for a time in the 4.3s on the 40-yard dash for Smith. The small hands and short arms were also a little disappointing. Smith is going to be a true deep threat in the NFL though, because he plays even faster than his time suggests and he has great acceleration off the line. If he ends up with a strong armed quarterback in a vertical passing scheme, he could post some very impressive, though probably wildly inconsistent stat lines.

3.03 – Mike Davis, RB South Carolina
Previous Selection: 2.05

Jeff’s thoughts: I often eat an entire pint of Häagan Daas in one sitting. While I’m admitting stuff, I think I’d take Josh Robinson if I had it to do over again. The big issue with Davis comes down to his significant regression in 2014. You can’t find a report on this guy that doesn’t mention he was out of shape, which is always a pretty big red flag. And then Davis followed all this up with an uninspiring showing at the combine. This isn’t to say he lacks ability. In 2013, Davis showed more giddy-up, with at least adequate ability to get to the edge or make a defender miss. That isn’t the core of Davis’ game, though. Where he excels is in the bowling ball department. When Davis is right, he runs much bigger than his 5’9″, 217 pound frame, showing the ability to navigate traffic with deftness. But unless he gets himself in shape, I’m not sure any of that will matter.

My thoughts: Davis’ combine performance, assuming you can call it that, caused him to slide a little bit further down my board. From his pre-combine selection to his current one, you can see I’m not the only one. He needed to show up to the combine in shape and ready to show his physical traits, and he failed. The potential for him to be a starting running back is definitely there, but he needs a fire lit under him. I think he is most likely out of the league in a few years, which is a shame because he could be very productive in the right system. Think about an Alfred Morris who can actually catch a pass.

3.04 – Chris Conley, WR Georgia
Previous Selection: Undrafted

My thoughts: In the interest of full disclosure, if this was a real draft I wouldn’t have selected Conley here. There are a few players I have higher on my board at this point in time who are still available. However, I drafted Conley because I wanted the opportunity to talk about him a little bit more than I would have received otherwise.

Let me start with the obvious, his combine performance. Even with all of the talk, I don’t think people realize exactly how insane his performance was. His jumps were equal to or better than Megatron’s. His 4.35 second time in the 40-yard dash puts him into the top ten percent of NFL receivers. Best yet might be the fact he did it all at 6’2” and 213 pounds with nearly 10 inch hands and almost 34 inch arms. It was easily the best performance by a wide receiver since Julio Jones. Just think about that for a few moments. Could he be a workout warrior? Most definitely. But if he is, he’s the best one we’ve seen at the position in a very long time!

On the field, it is a little bit more difficult to figure out exactly what Conley can and can’t do thanks in part to some poor quarterback play. I’m still trying to figure him out as I’m sure all 32 NFL teams are also doing. He seems to catch and track the ball quite well. He also does a nice job of varying speeds to help him create some separation while running routes. Where he seemed to struggle was when things became physical, both at beating press coverage and when he needed to get contested balls. He also didn’t play quite as well as he tested in the combine. He definitely needs a lot more attention and is someone to keep a very close eye on. Well worth a flier in the later rounds.

3.05 – Josh Robinson, RB Mississippi State
Previous Selection: 2.10

Rob’s thoughts: Being a Bulldog at Mississippi State was the perfect moniker for Josh Robinson, as he’s a tenacious runner who uses an incredibly powerful lower body to move the pile and eschew arm tackles. While lacking elite long speed or lateral agility, he is the type of pile-moving, well-rounded back who gets passed over for flashier talent while consistently outperforming said talent. In the middle of round three, I am happy to get a runner I feel has three down back upside.

My thoughts: The combine didn’t do Robinson any favors. Instead it just reinforced what most felt about him. He is very solidly built and has ideal size for the position with good power to run behind his pads. Unfortunately, he also has very sub-par athleticism. He lacks top end speed, agility and explosiveness. He is basically a bowling ball who will get what is blocked for him by running straight ahead. He isn’t going to beat anyone to the corner and doesn’t have the agility in the open field to make many NFL defenders miss. While he is a solid pass catcher, I think his primary role in the NFL will be as a short yardage specialist.

3.06 – Tre McBride, WR William & Mary
Previous Selection: Undrafted

Nick’s thoughts: I’ve been high on McBride from film, but he’s had a great off-season. He performed well at the combine and he’s one of those high upside players who I love to take in the third round. Good size, great athleticism and it translates onto the field.

My thoughts: McBride wasn’t on my radar until the combine occurred. He is definitely in the third round hunt now. He is a little on the small side, especially his arms and hand size, but he is very solidly built. He also showed very good acceleration, top end speed, explosiveness, and change of direction ability. One the field he has great body control, nice hands, and adjusts to the ball in the air better than most. His route running is still a work in progress as are a few of the finer points prior to getting the ball in his hands. He is a great third round choice, though.

3.07 – Javorius Allen, RB USC
Previous Selection: 2.11

Doug’s thoughts: Buck Allen in the third round is just plain stealing. He turned in a 4.53 40-yard dash at the combine but his play is better than his testing numbers. Allen plays with both speed and power and has the burst to run away from defenders in the open field. He also has good hands, so if he lands with a running back-needy team, he has a chance to be a major contributor right away.

My thoughts: Allen is a very confusing player for me. He is a 220 pound running back, but he plays like a 200 pound running back. He has surprising agility for his size with nice cut backs and great feet. I feel he avoids contact a little too much for a running back his size, though. He doesn’t run over nearly enough people for being a 220 pounder and he doesn’t run behind his pads, either. I also think he is lacking in the vision department as he often doesn’t seem to see a hole until it is too late. With a little work and the right system, he could be a quality number two back on an NFL team, but I’m not sure there is going to be much else.

3.08 – DeAndre Smelter, WR Georgia Tech
Previous Selection: 3.09

Russell’s thoughts: Smelter was someone I was extremely high on as the college football season was progressing, and then he tore his ACL. One of my favorite parts of Smelters game is he’s shown major flashes even though he was only recently exposed to the game. Smelter played baseball until his junior season, so while he stayed until his senior year, his potential is really exciting. He posted 35 catches for 715 yards (20.4 YPR), at 6’2″ 226, so I like the gamble in the late third.

My thoughts: Georgia Tech receivers never have a lot of stats due to the system they run, but they are almost always physical specimens. Smelter is no exception to that. He checked in a little bit shorter than expected at the combine and couldn’t participate in the drills due to the ACL injury, but that just might make him more affordable in your draft. Like most of the Georgia Tech receivers, route running is a little bit of a concern due to the very limited route tree in the offensive system, but routes can be learned. Smelter is a nice lottery ticket.

3.09 – Tyler Lockett, WR Kansas State
Previous Selection: Undrafted

Paul’s thoughts: This pick came down to choosing between two players I was stunned to see still on the board at the end of the third round in tight end Clive Walford and Lockett. In the end I chose Lockett, who I had ranked as a second round rookie pick and 10th on my wide receiver rankings. While Lockett is only 5’10 and 182 pounds he possesses great speed, hands, and change of direction ability. After one of the most productive seasons in college football, Lockett backed up those numbers by having a very good combine. He ran an excellent 4.40 40 yard dash and had a great 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle drill. Those numbers showed he possessed both long speed and an ability to quickly change directions and get in and out of breaks quickly. I think Lockett can make an impact immediately as a slot receiver and return man in the NFL and I compare his game to Emmanuel Sanders and John Brown.

My thoughts: Lockett is a player whose value will be determined almost exclusively by the team he ends up on in the NFL draft. He doesn’t have the size to play outside in the NFL, which means he is going to be a slot receiver. The value of a slot receiver to a fantasy team really depends on the quarterback. They need a high quality starting quarterback who throws the ball enough to give them some value. If Lockett ends up somewhere like Kansas City, playing the slot isn’t going to make him worth a second thought. Lockett could creep close to the second round or he could be almost undraftable.

3.10 – Kenny Bell, WR Nebraska
Previous Selection: Undrafted

Kyle’s thoughts: I’ve watched Kenny Bell a few times in college, and always thought he was an above average wide receiver but wasn’t spectacular. What stood out to me the most about Bell was his blocking ability. He is far and away the best blocking WR in this class, which should allow for him to get on the field early. Bell is also a good deep threat, but was underutilized throughout his career. He also displayed solid hands at Nebraska. Overall, Bell could develop into a nice secondary option for whichever team drafts him and I feel that’s a good value at this point in the draft.

My thoughts: I thought about Bell earlier in the third round because he actually had one of the better combines for this year’s receiver class. He is a little bit on the lean side, but if he can add about 10 pounds of muscle to his frame to help with press coverage and contested balls, he could be a very solid complimentary receiver to a top flight talent. He is very underrated from a physical standpoint and could surprise a lot of people at the next level. He needs to refine his route running as well to get smoother in and out of his breaks.

3.11 – Karlos Williams, RB Florida State
Previous Selection: 3.05

Aaron’s thoughts: Has the obvious off the field concerns and he may have lost his job this past season, but he is a very aggressive and strong runner. He has incredible upside and if I can find a running back with his level of talent in the third round of a rookie draft, you better believe I’m taking my shot. Again, it’s easy to forget that he played safety prior to his time at running back. A player with this type of aggression, speed and pass catching ability can’t go unnoticed.

My thoughts: With Williams, it is the tale of two players. There is the player we saw for most of the year and there is the player we saw flashes of at times. He is new to the position and it often shows with questionable instincts and choices. However he does flash great speed, a suddenness that can’t be taught and a punishing running style. If he can work on his feel for the position and correct some of the bad decisions he can make, he could be a steal for an NFL team late in the draft. There are, of course, the character issues to account for as well.

3.12 – Justin Hardy, WR East Carolina
Previous Selection: 3.05

James’s thoughts: I considered the boom-bust appeal of Vince Mayle here, but again went with a guy who I think does all of the things required to play wide receiver in the NFL for a long time. He is one of the best in the class at working to get open after a play breaks down, and does all the dirty work well (fighting through traffic underneath, blocking and catching poorly thrown balls). While not overly dynamic and probably best suited for a slot role at the next level, he is perfectly capable of putting up good fantasy numbers in an efficient passing offense.

My thoughts: It is too bad Hardy isn’t another 2-3 inches taller and about 25 pounds heavier, because I really like his game. He is more quick than fast, but he works very hard and shows no fear at any point on the field. He catches the ball very well and adjusts to balls thrown outside of his frame. He isn’t afraid to take a big hit if it means saving his quarterback. That mentality will earn him a lot of friends on his team, especially the quarterback.

Previously drafted players who went undrafted this time: Deontay Greenberry, Tony Lippett, Vince Mayle, Brett Hundley, Davaris Daniels

That’s it for our three rounds. Who do you feel be missed? Who most impressed you at the combine or lost the most value as a result of a poor showing? Feel free to share your thoughts below!

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jacob feldman