Pony Excess: Andre Johnson joins Frank Gore in Indy

George Kritikos Posted On March 13, 2015

johnson

After 12 seasons with the Houston Texans, Andre Johnson, the player with the ninth most receptions in NFL history (1,012) is heading to the Colts on a three year, $21 million deal.

What led to this?

It’s quite simple, really. The Houston Texans would have faced a $16.1 million cap figure for Johnson in 2015. That, coupled with the coaching staff looking to elevate other receivers like DeAndre Hopkins, led Johnson to ask for his release.

[inlinead]Johnson had at least 1,400 receiving yards in 2012 and 2013 before Hopkins’ breakout year (1,210 yards) in 2014 caused him to become a second option (just 936 yards). Overall, Johnson has broken the 1,000 receiving yard mark seven times and has had 100 catches in five seasons, making it difficult for him to accept a reduced role.

Where’s he going?

In the Colts, Johnson gets to play with Andrew Luck, the only quarterback who surpassed 40 touchdown passes in 2014. He was also third in passing yards and total passing attempts. What’s more important than the proficiency of the passing game is the opportunity Johnson is stepping into here.

With Reggie Wayne’s departure from the team, there is a void Johnson is best suited to fill. While Wayne’s 110 targets are a reduction from the 146 that Johnson saw a year ago, I think he will prefer a few less targets from Luck rather than the wobbly passes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the overthrown darts of Ryan Mallett and the lame ducks Case Keenum threw. There are also another 68 targets from Hakeem Nicks that are up for grabs.

Who benefits and who loses?

Luck isn’t looking at a huge increase in production as a result of Johnson joining the team, but he gets another weapon that will improve his efficiency and give him the underneath option Wayne was last year. Just one look at Johnson’s 2014 average depth of target (10.0) tells you he can do many of the things Wayne (10.4) did for Luck.

Little changes as well for T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, or Coby Fleener. Hilton will continue to take the top off of defenses while Allen and Fleener won’t see a drop-off in red zone targets. The two losers in this situation are Donte Moncrief and Duron Carter. With Johnson in the fold, Moncrief loses out on claiming a starting spot and Carter has another receiver to contend with in hopes of even making the team.

Moncrief will still see the field as Hilton was used in the slot on 40% of his routes and the team used three receiver sets on roughly two thirds of their plays in 2014. That said, he won’t get the chance to establish himself as the second receiving option. It’s not all bad, however, as he clearly showed a need to polish his routes and develop chemistry with Luck. In Johnson, Moncrief gets a great mentor and someone who will ease his transition over the next few years. Dynasty owners shouldn’t panic as other receivers from the class succeed earlier, Moncrief remains in one of the best situations in the league and arguably one of the only places where there can be three viable fantasy wide receivers.

Carter’s plight is more about making the team and carving out a role. He has very limited special teams experience so he will have to wow with his receiving skills. Johnson creates a roadblock for Carter as it is one less receiver spot up for grabs. I do think Carter makes the team, but the hype is all but mute at this point as he is no more than a flyer for the backend of your dynasty roster.

Final Word

Johnson was wise in picking his situation as the Colts need an underneath option and he has been one of the surest receivers for the last 12 years. I think he will lose some catches from last year’s total (85) but 65-75 with a chance at 1,000 receiving yards all seem within striking distance. Johnson’s upside is rooted more in the touchdown potential. Poor quarterback play is primarily why he hasn’t surpassed five receiving touchdowns since 2010, but I could see 6-8 touchdowns if Johnson manages to stay healthy in 2015 playing alongside Luck.

I would be drafting Johnson in startups ahead of other veteran receivers like Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald, both of whom are currently ahead of him on the DLF March ADP.

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