Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Tweets of the Week
My Tuesday was extremely unproductive. This was not because I was frantically trying to determine what was going on with every NFL team trading players like it was my home fantasy league. It was because I was rolling laughing at all the comedians on my TL. Below are a few of my favorites from the day.
Free agency losers: Bears (Cutler) Free agency winners: other 31 teams (no Cutler)
— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) March 10, 2015
Chip Kelly is like your buddy who gets drunk enough that he thinks he can throw darts left handed.
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) March 10, 2015
If the question is, “How NOT to sell jerseys?” Then YES RT @numberFire: Is Brian Hoyer Really the Answer for the @HoustonTexans?
— Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) March 10, 2015
Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
The NFL free agency period was definitely exciting filled with both expected and unexpected signings and trades. Jimmy Graham’s move to Seattle falls into the latter. Graham became one of the hottest debated players with everyone trying to estimate what this would mean for his fantasy value both in the long and short term. Most of the commentary presented a negative outlook as seen here,
Graham had an 19% target share + the past 4 years on an offense that threw 650 passes every season. SEA has eclipsed 450 attempts once w RW.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) March 10, 2015
If Graham had the same %targets and FPoints per target in SEA as he did in NO over the last 3 years, he’d avg 87 fewer PPR pts per season.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) March 11, 2015
Seattle threw the ball 200 fewer times than New Orleans last season. Even if Graham can get 25% of the targets, looking at 10-20 fewer tgts.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) March 10, 2015
Last season, the Seahawks tight ends accumulated 80 total targets and six touchdowns. Jimmy Graham is by far the superior option, but even with a 25% increase in targets and no other tight end getting a single look, Graham would come in at 100 targets on the season – this would be a decrease of around 33 from his average for the last four years. His catch percentage with one of the best quarterbacks in the game also came in at approximately 66%. Providing Graham can maintain his 12 yards per reception for his career and tack on two more touchdowns from Seattle’s group in 2014 you are left with around 800 yards and eight touchdowns. You know who else had 800 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014? Coby Fleener. Now I threw Fleener’s name out there mainly for shock value and I would bet a lot that Graham outscores Coby in 2015, but the difference between Graham and the rest of the field just got a lot more narrow. Overall this move makes the tight end field feel even more like Rob Gronkowski versus everyone else. This last season in drafts I applied the Gronk or wait strategy and nothing will change that this season. Ryan McDowell shared an interesting ADP graph on Graham and steadily climbing Travis Kelce.
This gap will only narrow as as do next month’s dynasty mock drafts. #dynasty #ADP pic.twitter.com/aG7YGi4XSn
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) March 10, 2015
A couple weeks back I wrote about how I am not overly enamored with Kelce’s fantasy prospects but being three years younger I could see a case for Kelce being made over Jimmy in dynasty. With Julius Thomas losing Peyton Manning, Greg Olsen just being old and Travis playing in the overly conservative offense run by Alex Smith, Graham is still likely your fantasy number two tight end. But as mentioned above, I am no longer looking to pay for any tight end unless he loves kittens.
Russell Wilson, QB SEA
While most were focusing on the negative fantasy ramifications on Jimmy Graham, Adam Levitan remarked on Russell Wilson’s future outlook.
Russ Wilson was fantasy’s No. 3 QB in ’14, behind only Rodgers & Luck. His leading receivers were Baldwin & Kearse. Now he has Jimmy Graham.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 10, 2015
Last season Wilson bested his prior year numbers mainly due to the fact he ran for an additional 300 yards and five touchdowns. I do not think you can count on another 800 plus yards from Wilson on the ground or the additional touchdowns, but adding Jimmy Graham makes Russell the clear number three quarterback in both dynasty and redrafts behind only Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
Turning focus to a player most were expecting to depart his current team, Mark Ingram re-upped with New Orleans for the next four years. With both Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet cut by the Saints, this essentially leaves the backfield to Ingram and Khiry Robinson. Cadet could be resigned at less expense or the Saints could draft a running back, but Ingram and Khiry will likely lead the way. The immediate impact on Ingram’s fantasy value is clearly pointing up as seen from the following tweets.
#Saints RB Mark Ingram is still only 25 years old & has a 4.65 YPC average over his last 23 games.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) March 8, 2015
Re: Ingram, Khiry is still a concern but Ingram may have a larger role in passing game with PT gone. Averaged 2.8 catches in 5 games w/o PT.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) March 8, 2015
Many are assuming the Saints will become more balanced than their 62/48 pass to run ratio in 2014. This can only mean more good news for Ingram and even with a 60% share in carries added to an additional 30 – 35 catches, Mark Ingram could be flirting with 300 total touches moving forward. The Saints also heavily utilized him around the goal line as Mike Clay noted,
Mark Ingram was 1st in carries from the opponent’s 1 yd line and carries within 5 yds of the EZ last season http://t.co/wMxHAs5q1p #Saints
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 8, 2015
Before the craziness that has been NFL free agency, Ingram was sitting around the 20th overall running back in dynasty. Looking at all the recent developments I would be slotting him closer to 12th or 13th. Let’s just see what happens with CJ Spiller’s visit today,
Davante Adams, WR GB
[inlinead]One player whose fantasy ADP and value was jumping all over the map during the past three weeks was Green Bay’s Davante Adams. I never expected the Packers to let Randall Cobb go, but leading up to this past week plenty were reporting that his departure was looking more and more imminent. If you were able to move Adams for a solid return prior to the news of Cobb re-signing, congrats, but his value likely will be plummeting farther than needed as well. Mike Clay shared a great stat on the Packers’ use of receivers stating,
The Packers had a third wide receiver on the field on an NFL-high 90% of pass plays last season. #DavanteAdams
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 8, 2015
Rich Hribar also expressed his sentiments towards looking to still acquire the young receiver tweeting,
A good time to float offers to acquire Davante. His role wasn’t changing with or w/o Cobb outside of pure volume. Boom/bust WR3 in ’15.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) March 8, 2015
Adams’ immediate fantasy value is spotty but he does represent one of the best wide receiver handcuffs. His situation is similar to Donte Moncrief with the Colts in that they are both young talents behind two proven veterans, but I would still prefer Davante long term.
Julius Thomas, TE JAX
Thomas’ signing with Jacksonville offers a perfect case to see just how valuable a great quarterback and offense can make a certain player. Thomas has been a fantasy beast at the tight end position the last two years thanks to Peyton and the Broncos play calling, but as Raymond Summerlin pointed out that streak could come to an end quickly.
Julius Thomas scored 12 touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Bortles threw 11 touchdowns in 13 starts last season.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) March 10, 2015
In 2014, Thomas was very touchdown dependent only catching 43 balls for 489 yards. He also finished the season without a score over his last seven games. He now will be receiving passes from Blake Bortles, who Pro Football Focus ranked as the worst quarterback in 2014 out of 39 qualifying players. Bortles’ sub 60% completion percentage and extremely low 6.1 yards per attempt do not bode well for Julius’ fantasy production. The lack of scoring opportunities in particular will likely play a big role in his demise. As mentioned earlier the tight end position is fairly unclear and if you were ranking today Thomas may still be a top five option, but his numbers will not be much different from the tenth best tight end. Personally I would be selling all my shares.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
One rookie running back from 2014 who many owners are looking ahead for big things is San Francisco’s Carlos Hyde. With the ever-dependable Frank Gore moving onto to Indianapolis it would appear Hyde has a clear path to a heavy workload. Interestingly enough the commentary this week was split on his future prospects as seen from Yahoo’s Brad Evans and DLF’s Ryan McDowell and Jeff Miller.
Kind of surprised by number of Carlos Hyde nonbelievers. Best stat from his rookie season: 68.2% of rush yards came after contact.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) March 8, 2015
If you’re not sold on Carlos Hyde, now is the time to sell.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) March 8, 2015
I’m not sold on Carlos Hyde. If somebody will pay up, it would be a good time to move him.
— J3ff Miller (@FFJeffM) March 8, 2015
Clearly the 49ers executives felt losing Gore with Hyde waiting in the wings was not a problem. Of course you now have a new coaching staff that is not directly tied to drafting the young runner. Brad’s stat appears impressive as you want a running who can gain the extra yards. Per PFF Premium Stats, Carlos Hyde was tied for 8th in the league out of 57 runners who received at least 25% of their respective teams’ snaps in 2014 in yards after contact. He was also tied with James Starks in this category and Starks is not a name I would immediately think of as grinder. The one thing Hyde and Starks share in common is that each had a lower total number of carries at 83 and 85 for the season. I have a lot more faith in a guy like Starks’ running mate Eddie Lacy who averaged 2.8 yards after contact per attempt on 245 total carries. Hyde averaged a respectable 4.0 yards per carry on the season, but only had three games where he hit double digit carries. In those three games his average yards per carry were 2.6 (against PHI), 4.3 (against KC) and 1.3 (against STL). For me, I tend to side with Jeff and Ryan in that while I think Hyde could be in for a solid 2015 and beyond being the lead dog, if you are not completely sold on the runner move him. His value sits around the 9th to 11th best running back in fantasy currently and if you are not ready to build your fantasy roster around him, someone else likely is.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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