Instant Analysis: Jimmy Graham traded to Seattle

Karl Safchick

graham

In the words of Ron Burgundy, “Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.”

Per Adam Shefter of ESPN, now former New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham has been traded to the Seattle Seahawks. According to Jay Glazer of Fox Sports, the Seahawks will receive Graham and a fourth round pick for their 31st overall pick and Pro-Bowl center Max Unger.

The Seahawks were a team literally one yard away from winning their second straight Super Bowl this past season. Seahawks General Manager John Schneider wanted to ensure not only a legitimate weapon in the passing game, but also, if the offense were to be one yard away from a potential Super Bowl winning end zone, that their pass catcher would not be pushed out of the way for an interception. The downside? The Seahawks go a third straight year without a first round pick. We remember the Percy Harvin trade of 2013. Last year, the Minnesota Vikings traded up to select Teddy Bridgewater. Now, The New Orleans Saints will select in the Seahawks position.

A major weapon in the passing game is exactly what the Seahawks got, though.

Graham entered the league as a third round pick out of the University of Miami (#95 overall). His rookie year was essentially a red-shirt season, but he’s since set the league on fire. In the four years following his rookie campaign, Graham has never caught fewer than 85 balls and has averaged around 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns per season. For reference, future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez never had a four year stretch in which caught 85 balls each year, averaged 1,100 yards or averaged 12 touchdowns. In fact, Gonzalez only caught double digit touchdowns three times in his 17-year career – a feat already equaled in the short five-year career of Graham.

Comparing a current player to someone who is widely considered the best ever is usually unfair, but in this case, the numbers keep piling up in favor of Graham. In his first five years, Gonzalez accumulated 334 catches, 3,958 yards and 30 touchdowns. In Graham’s first five years, he has 52 more catches, 794 more yards and 21 more touchdowns. On a per season basis, Graham is averaging about 10/159/4 more than Gonzalez.

[inlinead]We are seeing a different NFL than our fathers, though. We’re in the era of seeing 5,000 passing attempts from our starting quarterback as almost a norm. So, how has Graham faired against his peers in this new passing landscape? Well, Graham has finished as the TE1 or TE2 in every season of his career (basically alternating TE1 seasons with Rob Gronkowski).

In 2011, Graham finished as the TE2, scoring 294 ppr points, and outscored the TE3 (Aaron Hernandez) by almost 80 points. In 2012, Graham finished as the TE1, scoring 237 points. In 2013, Graham finished as the TE1 for the second straight year, scoring a career high 304 points. In 2014, Graham was thought to have a down year, yet still finished as the TE2. This type of consistency has not been seen by any fantasy asset over the last four years at any position and likely will not be duplicated.

Of course, the elephant in the room now becomes the difference in opportunity between the Saints and Seahawks. There is certain to be a drop off in targets. In the span of time Russell Wilson has been in the NFL, he’s attempted 1,252 passes, or 417 per year. During the same time frame, Drew Brees has attempted 1,979 passes, or 660 per year. On just a per year basis, Brees is attempting 243 more passes than Wilson – this is extremely bad news for Graham’s fantasy prospects, right?

Not exactly.

While Wilson is only averaging 417 passes per season, his attempts have steadily increased each year. In his sophomore campaign, Wilson attempted fourteen more passes than in his rookie season. In his third year, his pass attempts increased by 45 to 452 – an 11% increase. If we see the same percentage increase from year three to year four, we’re looking at 500 pass attempts from Wilson. Assuming Graham is targeted at the same rate in Seattle as he was in New Orleans (about 21%), and assuming Wilson surpasses the 500 attempt threshold, he’s still seeing about 106 targets per season. He’s averaged 138 over his last four seasons as a Saint, so he’ll only see about 77% of the targets in Seattle he saw in New Orleans.

What would 77% of Graham’s fantasy production look like over his career? It would still be good enough for the TE2 in 2011 (same ranking). He would have tied for TE6 in 2012 (down from TE1). In 2013, Graham would have still been the TE1, and would have actually still outscored the TE2 by fifteen points! Then, in 2014, which was considered his “down year,” Graham still would have finished as the TE7 (down from TE2). In short, if you were to receive 77% of Graham over a four year span, you’re still looking at the TE2 on average. If not for “Gronk,” you’d still be looking at the dynasty TE1.

Will Graham actually be targeted at the same rate in Seattle? The Saints offense has thrown to their running backs at a rate unmatched by any team in the league over the last few years, and it’s really not even close. This can viewed in The 2013 Pass Catchers Portfolio by Eric Hardter.

Also, while the Saints wide receivers haven’t necessarily been the 2007 New England Patriots, they are, and have been, better than what the Seahawks are currently rostering. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, etc. are (or were) all better receivers than Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. You can certainly make the case the Seahawks could throw to Graham at a higher rate than the Saints have.

Strength of schedule is tough to predict from year-to-year for any position. If you were to attempt this great feat, though, Graham goes from a division which includes possibly the league’s two best linebackers in Lavonte David and Luke Kuechly to a division which just saw Patrick Willis retire and has, according to Rich Hribar and Denny Carter (the streaming tight end gurus), “one of the league’s best defenses to stream tight end against” in the Arizona Cardinals.

Graham should have a positive impact on a contending football team, but his fantasy value may take a small hit in going to Seattle. On the contrary, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about his fantasy prospects as well. History and numbers show us there’s no reason to consider dropping him any lower than the TE2 in redraft or dynasty leagues, and with his current February ADP (generated by Ryan McDowell) being 17 overall, I see no reason to drop him out of the second round of startup drafts.

There may be a unique buy low/sell high window brewing here. Some Graham supporters may view this as a big blow to his value, giving you the opportunity to buy him at a reduced cost, while others may suffer from what I like to call “shiny new object” syndrome. If they think Graham will be better simply by switching teams, they haven’t read this article, and you can sell him at an inflated price.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick

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