Dynasty Capsule: San Francisco 49ers
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
We continue our path through the NFL with the 49ers.
Coaching Change
Despite having a .695 winning percentage during his four years with the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh didn’t do a good enough job to overcome a “personality conflict” with upper management. Jim Tomsula is now the head coach and has brought together a very inexperienced staff. New Offensive coordinator Geep Chryst was last a coordinator for two seasons with the San Diego Chargers from 1999-2000. He had the distinguished pleasure of having to work with quarterbacks Ryan Leaf and ironically enough, Jim Harbaugh. Chryst’s offenses were 60% pass in those years and he’s been in ball control run offenses for almost the last decade. Which reveals not much in regards to how Chryst going to run the offense in 2015 and beyond.
Quarterbacks
Colin Kaepernick
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“A Season to Forget” is a good headline to recap Colin Kaepernick’s 2014 campaign. He saw declines in touchdowns, yards per attempt and quarterback rating. He did see an increase in rushing yardage, rushing average per carry and completion percentage, however. In the end, he finished as the QB23 in 2014, which was down from his QB20 finish in PPG in 2013. His weapons were a shadow of their former selves, except for Anquan Boldin who is aging like fine wine.
It’s difficult to predict 2015 and beyond because the 49ers offense has so much uncertainty. Michael Crabtree is a free agent, Stevie Johnson was released and they have a brand new offense. I would expect the 49ers to bring in multiple new weapons this off-season. At this point, Kaepernick hasn’t evolved as a passer with making multiple reads and becoming a QB1 in fantasy football. He’s only 27 years old, so it’s not time to give up on his ceiling yet.
The 49ers currently have no viable backup quarterback and they will obviously be addressing this in the off-season. It will be interesting to see how highly they invest in this area because it will be the new regime.
Running Backs
Frank Gore
At the youthful age of 31, Gore enjoyed an even better 2014 season than 2013, posting 1,217 total yards with five touchdowns. In fact, his 2014 season yards per carry of 4.3 was better or equal to three of his previous four seasons. Gore finished RB20 in 2014 and it’s hard to imagine him repeating that in 2015. Although he did finish the last two games of the season with 302 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry. He’s a free agent and his best chance for producing is if he re-signs with the 49ers. Even so, he would have to compete with Hyde for carries.
Carlos Hyde
The fantasy community was expecting more from Hyde in his rookie season. At the very least, they expected him to be more efficient than that over the hill back named Gore. Neither of those things were the case and it was surprising after the first game of the season. In week one, Hyde ran seven times for 50 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t have a single game over that yardage until week 17 when he ran for 55 yards against the Seahawks. In fact, Hyde came within 13 yards of his opening game performance only twice all season and averaged four yards per carry.
Hyde’s 2015 production will be tied to if Gore and Mike Iupati are re-signed. Gore will lucky make it a full blown RBBC and Iupati is one of the best run blocking guards in all of football. The risky part of Hyde’s dynasty value is the new regime isn’t tied to him. They may not view Hyde as the future running back or his style may not blend with the new scheme.
Kendall Hunter
It’s been a very difficult NFL career for Hunter as he’s had to overcome injuries. He had a partially torn Achilles in 2012 and last summer tore his ACL. I wouldn’t expect much else from Hunter in terms of his FF career.
Wide Receivers
Anquan Boldin
Somehow Boldin continues to produce at the advanced age of 34 and finished the FF season as the WR18 in PPR formats. It looks like his skills are starting to diminish with his yards per reception being the lowest since 2009, however. Boldin is the only wide receiver of note that’s under contract and he’s had a good rapport with Kaepernick the last two seasons. Therefore, it’s possible he still puts up low end WR2 to WR3 numbers in 2015.
Michael Crabtree
Disappointing would understate the 2014 season of Crabtree. His 10.3 yards per reception was a career NFL low by 1.8 yards, which is a staggering amount. Crabtree was never a great athlete, but it appears that Achilles injury he suffered has made him lose a step. He’s an unrestricted free agent and likely won’t return to San Francisco. If Crabtree lands with a great quarterback, he could perhaps bounce back to WR2-3 status. However, it doesn’t seem likely.
Stevie Johnson
Johnson has had a fall from grace in terms of his fantasy arc. He came out of nowhere and three straight 1,000 yard seasons in Buffalo. Stevie was traded to the 49ers in the off-season after battling injuries the past few seasons and many didn’t have high expectations. While he didn’t produce great numbers, he was very efficient. Johnson caught 70% of his targets, scored on three of his 35 receptions and had a better average in terms of yards per reception than Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks. Stevie got released by the 49ers a few days ago and I think has some solid FF potential if he lands in a good situation.
Bruce Ellington
Only one year ago, Ellington was a fourth round pick coming off some decent measurable from the combine. Now he’s with a new coaching staff and we’re not sure how he’ll be utilized. Also keep in mind that if the 49ers don’t bring in many players, Ellington could have a solid opportunity.
Brandon Lloyd
Out of football in 2013, the 49ers brought Lloyd back to play in a limited role. He only had 14 receptions on the year but boasted an impressive 21 yards per reception. It looks like the end of the line for Lloyd, in what has been an interesting end to his career.
Tight Ends
Vernon Davis
Davis turned in one of the most underwhelming tight end performances of 2014. In 2013, he finished TE5 posting a 52/850/13 season. In 2014, he finished TE 34 posting a 26/245/2 season. Davis is only 31 years old and it’s possible for him to rebound with the new staff. Are his skills diminishing or was he just drastically underutilized last season? We’ll soon find out the answer to that question and it could be an important one in dynasty leagues.
Vance McDonald
Not much opportunity has been given to McDonald thus far in his two year career and only was targeted seven times in 2014. He still is worth keeping an eye on after running a 4.6 40 yard dash at the combine.
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Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
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