Post-Combine Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (Round One)
The combine recently wrapped up and there were definitely a few studs as well as several duds. Of course the biggest question every year is how much does the combine really matter? Can the “Underwear Olympics” actually predict future success in the NFL? There are definitely people all over the spectrum on that question, but there is one thing pretty much everyone can agree on – running faster is better and being stronger is better, too. The questions are of course centered around how much better.
That is an entirely different discussion though, so instead let’s focus on how the combine changed values for players. There were a few players who vaulted up draft boards and a few who fell. In order to help you figure out exactly what the combine did, I’m back with 11 other writers to bring you another mock draft. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish has that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. It is very important to keep in mind it is still early in the process. A lot of us are still watching games and re-evaluating our opinions. Plus, the NFL Draft and final landing positions for these plays will have profound impact. We all also have our favorites who we like more than most right now, so there will be some disagreement on where a player should have gone, but that is part of the fun!
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong, especially at this early stage in the process.
Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one. The top 6-7 picks seem to be mostly locked in according to most sources right now, and there seems to be some definite tiers starting to form. Then again, everyone has their own opinions and we had a little bit of dissension in the ranks in this mock.
Let’s take a look!
1.01 – Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
Previous Selection: 1.01
Brian’s thoughts: Despite Gurley’s knee injury, he is still my top overall player in this class. He has little wear and tear taking less than 40 percent of his teams snaps in college. Gurley is a powerful runner who can maintain his balance through contact and then has the speed to take it the distance. He has also had production in the passing game while at Georgia. His 65 receptions, for 615 yards and six touchdowns shows that he can be an asset in PPR leagues. Gurley, 21 years of age to start his rookie campaign, is ahead of schedule in his knee rehabilitation according to Dr. James Andrews – this is a great sign for dynasty owners who are still on the fence due to health concerns.
My thoughts: I remember a time right after Gurley’s knee injury when there were some people talking about being able to scoop him up late in the first round as a result. It seems he is still the top rookie on pretty much everyone’s dynasty cheat sheets. There are a few people (like me) who might have him slightly lower, but I think he’s pretty much a lock to go somewhere in the few selections in pretty much every rookie draft, regardless of scoring. He is the complete package and while I personally expect Gordon to have the better pro career, I think Gurley will be a rock solid fantasy asset for years to come. I can’t fault anyone for having him on the top of their list.
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1.02 – Kevin White, WR West Virginia
Previous Selection: 1.04
George’s thoughts: After his impressive combine showing, White is my top receiver and second overall player behind only Todd Gurley. Confirming his size (6’3”, 215 pounds) may have been more important than the impressive numbers he put up in the various drills. He answered some lingering questions about his top-end speed (4.35 40-yard dash) and strength to beat press coverage (23 reps on the bench press). Already showing an ability to produce in college with a 109 catch season at West Virginia in 2014, the measurements point to an elite level athlete as well. White will be a top ten NFL Draft pick with Oakland, New York Jets, New York Giants and the St. Louis Rams as viable options.
My thoughts: I really like White, but I feel a little bit like people are exaggerating the quality of his combine performance. I think his size measurements definitely help him become a top two receiver both in fantasy leagues and in the NFL draft, but aside from his straight line speed his combine was just good, not great. His combine measurements aren’t on par with Julio Jones as I heard some people say. A much closer comparison is a shorter armed, smaller handed Alshon Jeffery. He is faster in a straight line than Jeffery, but not as good carrying his speed through changes in direction. Jeffery is still pretty good though, so I think White is worthy. I just think there is a little exaggeration on his upside right now.
1.03 – Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
Previous Selection: 1.02
Jeff’s thoughts: At this early point in the pre-NFL draft process, Cooper is my clear WR1. If I was in need of WR help, I wouldn’t hesitate to take him at the 1.01. But why? I’m glad you asked, voice inside my head. My answer: Cooper offers the best combo of upside and a high floor. He may not be as big (two inches shorter and four pounds lighter), or as fast (4.42 vs 4.35) or as explosive (he had a shorter vertical and broad jump) as Kevin White, but Cooper is exceedingly polished, has incredible short area quickness (he posted a WR best 3.98 shuttle and finished fifth in the three-cone drill), creates separation at will, is adept in traffic, runs good routes, and has ample long speed and good hands. Cooper is the most NFL ready WR in the draft yet he still offers the WR1 upside we look for. What more can you ask for?
My thoughts: While the answer isn’t quite as clear in my mind as it seems to be in Jeff’s, I think I agree Cooper is still the top receiver in this draft class, but it is very close. Between Cooper’s hands, route running and separation skills, I think he has what it takes to be a very good receiver for a long time. If he was in last year’s draft class, he would be a slightly better version of Sammy Watkins. They are very similar in a lot of ways, but Cooper is even better into and out of breaks and creates even more separation. He’s easily the safest pick at the top of the rookie draft board this year no matter what team he ends up on. I don’t think he will ever be an elite receiver in the NFL, but he could be a very solid WR1 for the next ten years. Sign me up!
1.04 – Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
Previous Selection: 1.03
My thoughts: While I was happy to see Gordon check in at 6’1” and 215 pounds as advertised, I was a little bit disappointed he only ran a 4.52 second 40-yard dash. I was expecting him to be close to a tenth of a second faster, because that is the speed he seems to play at when he is in pads on the field. Nonetheless, the measured time in the 40-yard dash doesn’t change much of anything about my opinion of Gordon. Our own Dr. Peak just did an investigation about the impact of sprint times on NFL production for running backs and found no correlation, but I think most of us could have told you that.
With a running back it is more about how they move, their vision, instincts, ability to create in tight spaces and being able to change direction without losing speed. Gordon has all of that in spades. He continues to be my top running back in this draft class and I love how his game translates to the NFL game. He is a complete back and should be a bell cow in the NFL. With the number of aging top running backs, I think Gordon could easily be a top five dynasty running back this time next year. Which team he ends up with will of course matter, but I think the sky is the limit for him.
1.05 – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma/Missouri
Previous Selection: 1.07
Rob’s thoughts: I’m normally somewhat risk-averse when it comes to talent with character concerns, yet Dorial Green-Beckham’s batting of the eyelashes and come hither look was just too appetizing when I was on the clock. The baggage is admittedly concerning. The inconsistency during his two years at Missouri is also troublesome. But he has the type of physical tools to contribute at a high level even if he is not a complete receiver. I feel there is a strong top seven in rookie drafts and towards the back-end of that tier I opted for the talent I perceive to have the highest ceiling.
My thoughts: I was honestly rather disappointed with DGB’s combine performance. Yes, he has elite size, but he has small hands, short arms, was slower than I hoped and not nearly as explosive as I expected him to be. While I don’t doubt his ability to be very successful in the NFL with his physical tools, they weren’t off the chart like I was hoping. My opinion of his ceiling has dropped a little bit and the floor is still extremely low given his off the field issues. I don’t think DGB will end up on any of my teams because I have him at the bottom of my top tier of rookies and I don’t think he will slide that far. He is special at the point of the catch, but I have major concerns about his work ethic – he’s a true lottery ticket.
1.06 – Jay Ajayi, RB Boise St.
Previous Selection: 1.10
Nick’s thoughts: I was deciding between Ajayi and DeVante Parker with this pick. I ultimately decided on Ajayi because I see a player with a much higher floor. He’s very versatile and can fit into any offense. He also has very good hands and could be a RB1 in fantasy leagues.
My thoughts: I was a little surprised by this pick because I think the vast majority of people see the top tier as being six players deep. The questions are of course about the order of these six players. Ajayi isn’t one of those six players on most boards. For me, I currently have Ajayi in my second tier with only Jaelen Strong joining him. I love the size and complete skill set he brings to the table, but I still don’t see anything truly exceptional about him. He is a great mix of acceleration and power, but I don’t see great vision nor wiggle. I think he profiles as a very good but not great starting running back in the NFL.
1.07 – Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Previous Selection: 2.07
Doug’s thoughts: In my mind, Marcus Mariota is the safer quarterback pick between the top two. People are concerned about his ability to play in a traditional offense, but no one can deny his dynamic talent. He came to the combine and checked all the boxes, running well and showed well enough during the passing portion of the on-field drills. The combination of his passing skills along with running the football make him a pile of fantasy points waiting to happen.
My thoughts: If I was surprised by the pick of Ajayi over DeVante Parker at 1.06, I nearly fell out of my chair at Mariota going before him. I really like Mariota, especially if the rumors about the Eagles trading up for him are true. In Chip Kelly’s system, Mariota could be a QB1 as soon as his rookie year. He has the legs to be a dual threat like Cam Newton was during his best years. My problem with the pick all comes down to value. In a 12-team, one quarterback league, quarterbacks just don’t carry enough value to be worth a first round pick unless they are Andrew Luck. I’m not even thinking about the position until the early second round.
1.08 – DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
Previous Selection: 1.05
Russell’s thoughts: This was a bit of a surprise. While I’ve openly mentioned how I’m not very high on this class of wide receivers, but if I can get any of the top 3-4 at 1.7 or later, I will definitely take them seriously. Parker seems like a decent bet to go in the first round, so even if you don’t like him, I’d invest at this price either way.
My thoughts: I would love to be in a draft where someone like Parker slips to the 1.08 draft pick. The combine went pretty well for Parker. He checked in an inch taller than expected at 6’3” and ran a 4.45 second time in the 40-yard dash. It would be nice to see him add another ten pounds of muscle to help beat more physical NFL corners and the small hands are a bit of a concern, but he catches the ball very well on film. His real selling point is the way he tracks and jumps to make difficult catches. He will be a quarterback’s best friend with his catch radius. He’s third on my wide receiver ranks, but he’s still in my top tier.
1.09 – Duke Johnson, RB Miami
Previous Selection: 1.09
Paul’s thoughts: I think there are a clear top six prospects and once they are off the board it makes selecting in the back end of round one very challenging. With the top four receivers off the board and three top running backs, this pick came down to choosing between Jameis Winston, Jaelen Strong and Johnson. In the end, I chose the running back I have fourth in my rookie rankings. While he is only 5’9 and 207 pounds, I believe he has the ability to be more than just a change of pace back in the NFL. I think his agility, quickness and ability to make cuts is what can make him a special back at the next level. While I was a little disappointed with his 40-yard dash time at the combine, I think he is quicker than fast. In addition, I believe he is one of the best receiving threats out of the backfield of all the rookies and that will earn him an immediate role regardless of his situation in his rookie year.
My thoughts: I wish Johnson would have done the shuttle and 3-cone drills so we could get a little bit better idea of his acceleration and change of direction skills, because the rest of the combine did not go well for Johnson in my opinion. For a speed back, he didn’t perform well in the jumps nor was his 40-yard dash time blazing. I also have questions about his instincts and vision, which might be a bigger factor in him being more of an outside runner or change of pace back than his size. He’s in my third tier of running backs, behind Gordon, Gurley, and Ajayi by a pretty good margin. I think his upside is likely capped by being a committee back.
1.10 – Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
Previous Selection: 1.06
Kyle’s thoughts: Strong had an awesome combine, which helped to boost his stock slightly for me. He now has jumped ahead of Funchess for me and is the clear WR5 in this class. He needs to work on gaining better separation and route running, but his athletic ability and above average age weighted production makes me feel comfortable taking him here.
My thoughts: I really like strong and have him in my top 8 players right now. He checked in a little shorter than I had hoped at 6’2”, but he was a very solid 217 pounds. His time in the 40 yard dash was very good for his size and he was very impressive in the vertical jump. This fits well with what he did on the field. He excelled at tracking the ball and going up to make a contested catch. He was also very good with the ball in his hands. The biggest thing which keeps him out of the discussion for the top tier is his lack of a route tree at this point in time. He should be a very solid receiver in the NFL.
1.11 – Devin Funchess, WR/TE Michigan
Previous Selection: 1.08
Aaron’s thoughts: While his combine was nothing special, I will continue to take advantage of his falling stock. Nothing has changed in terms of his ability to create mismatches and YAC ability. A receiver of his size is not a common thing at the NFL, and he could be a terror in the right offense. At the very least he should be a weapon in the red zone that’ll get you the all important touchdown.
My thoughts: The combine reaffirmed my belief that Funchess is a tight end, not a receiver. He lacks the speed and athleticism to match up against talented cornerbacks and win. Against linebackers and safeties, which he would face from the tight end position, he has more than enough speed to win – this is why I think he’ll be drafted as and asked to play the tight end position. If that’s the case, he isn’t worth a first round pick, even a late one.
1.12 – Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska
Previous Selection: 1.11
James’ thoughts: While Abdullah is a mere mortal, he has been known to do superhuman things on the football field. He showed fantastic explosiveness throughout his college career and his combine performance didn’t disappoint: he had the best result in the vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill and 20 yard shuttle. I value agility/acceleration (and knowing when to use it) more than ‘pure speed’ in running backs, and Abdullah absolutely excels in this area. He can make people miss, but also shows no hesitation in lowering the shoulder if necessary. Can he be a RB1? Absolutely.
My thoughts: From a pure athletic stand point, Abdullah is one of the best (if not the best) running back in this draft class. His acceleration, change of direction ability, and explosiveness are all top tier. However, he has issues with fumbles, lacks top end speed and is on the small side. He is very well put together, but still only checks in at 205 pounds with small hands and short arms. I think he is going to struggle to add any more muscle, which could make him a liability in pass protection. He also struggles running between the tackles from time to time, so I don’t see him as a full-time starter in the NFL.
That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with the later rounds very soon!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
