Who is Chris Hogan?

Jaron Foster

hogan

Following the sudden resignation of head coach Doug Marrone and retirement of quarterback Kyle Orton, Buffalo has been a place of uncertainty since the end of the NFL season. With star (albeit perpetually disappointing) running back CJ Spiller hitting the free agent market and repeatedly linked to the Jets and former coach Chan Gailey, there are many question marks and little reason for optimism about the offense beyond Sammy Watkins. One of the few bright spots in 2014 was the emergence of Chris Hogan as a receiving threat starting in week five, but can his relative success carry over into 2015?

It is common to hear of multi-sport stars in college who settle exclusively on football, particularly basketball for tight end prospects, but Hogan took this to the extreme as a highly recruited lacrosse player who led the Penn State Nittany Lions from 2006-2009. He didn’t play a down of football in his career at Penn State before obtaining a fifth year of NCAA eligibility to play football as a graduate student at Monmouth in 2010. His choice to play lacrosse was not for a lack of football scholarship offers as he received interest from Rutgers, Temple, UConn and Akron among others.

In his lone year of college football at Monmouth, Hogan was extremely versatile as he played wide receiver, cornerback, on special teams units and as a backup kicker and punter. Statistically, he caught just twelve passes (though three went for touchdowns) and intercepted three passes on defense.

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Hogan opened eyes at his Pro Day, however, as the 6’2”, 220-pound player listed exclusively as a wide receiver ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and posted a 10’6” broad jump. He also recorded 28 bench reps, which would have been first at the position at the 2011 NFL Combine. In the small sample size available for teams to see Hogan on the field, teams saw he has very reliable hands and crisp route-running (particularly for being so raw). He has deceptive speed and the strength to battle defenders in the middle of the field. He also has a strong reputation and work ethic.

Unfortunately for Hogan, posting only twelve receptions in an entire college career (not to mention over one season as a fifth year senior) did not impress NFL teams enough leading up to the draft. Though his stock had been rising in the previous weeks, he did not hear his name called by any of the teams that had been attending his workouts. It wasn’t until late July that San Francisco worked him out again and signed him as a free agent. He stuck around through the preseason before being released just prior to the team’s first game of the regular season. He then spent an unceremonious eleven day stint on the Giants’ practice squad before getting cut again and remained unemployed throughout the 2011 season.

Just before New Year’s, Miami signed Hogan to a reserve/future contract and stayed within the organization before making all but the final cuts in the preseason. Two months later, Buffalo signed him to their practice squad. He was elevated to the active roster for the first time in week 16 of the 2012 season. 

Hogan caught his first NFL pass in 2013, though his targets were few and far between as he finished the season with ten receptions for 83 yards. He was able to stick on the roster throughout the 2014 preseason thanks to his contributions on special teams, and finally got his shot playing the slot regularly in October when he caught his first touchdown from Orton. In all, he caught 41 passes on 61 targets for 426 yards and four touchdowns in 2014 as he bypassed Mike Williams and Marquise Goodwin (among others) for targets on the Bills’ wide receiver depth chart.

Going into 2015, the field is anything but defined for Hogan and company. He’s a restricted free agent (along with all-purpose player Marcus Thigpen) while everyone else is signed for at least the 2015 season. Deonte Thompson is a restricted free agent after 2015 while Goodwin, Robert Woods, Caleb Holley and Tobias Palmer are all signed through the 2016 season. Watkins’ contract will last through 2017. The contract for recently signed Pittsburgh castoff Justin Brown has yet to be publicized.

As it currently stands, Watkins and Woods are the starters on the outside with Hogan manning the slot. Goodwin is also battling for playing time, but the 5’10” speedster is very different type of player than Hogan. The rest of the players are depth options, none of whom are legitimate threats to the top four on the chart. With Williams gone, Hogan has truly carved himself a role should he return.

All indications point to the Bills retaining Hogan following his breakout performance in 2014. Given his production, it is reasonable to expect Hogan will once again receive 6-8 targets per game, translating into about ten fantasy points per game with the occasional touchdown bump. This production would make him a good value as a flex play considering the price in most leagues is a waiver wire pickup, comparable to Cole Beasley’s role and value with the Cowboys.

Of course, this projection is barring the acquisition of a high-profile free agent or draft pick to man the slot. Thanks in part to the emergence of Hogan, for Buffalo to invest in such a player would be surprising. Given the price they paid to acquire Watkins, including their first round pick in the 2015 draft, a similar splash is unlikely. With defense-focused Rex Ryan at the helm and considering more pressing needs at quarterback, running back, on the offensive line and in the secondary, wide receiver is likely very low on the list of priorities for upgrades.

Perhaps the only concern for Hogan to maintain his value is what the Bills do at tight end. Scott Chandler, MarQueis Gray, Chris Gragg and Lee Smith comprise an underwhelming tight end corps in terms of receiving options. Should the Bills sign Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron or Charles Clay (as three examples), the offensive focus in the middle of the field may shift to the pricey free agent – the same would be said of rookie Maxx Williams should he be drafted, though tight ends normally make a minimal impact in their first year.

That said, any of these acquisitions would stray from the strategy the Bills should employ this offseason. Hogan, who will turn 27 in October, represents a productive and inexpensive option that Buffalo needs. His ceiling is capped as the third best wide receiver on his own team, but the player nicknamed “7-11” for always being open should be flex-worthy in 2015.

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jaron foster
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