Dynasty Capsule: Detroit Lions

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We roll on and hit the Motor City this morning!

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford

While losing Calvin Johnson for several games (and seeing him hobbled for a few more) limited Stafford to an extent, very few would argue his season was anything other than a failure. A small part of his decline in production can be blamed on his reduction in usage (602 attempts was his lowest as a full-time starter), but that still ranked fifth in the NFL. Drops in yards per game (four straight years declining to 266 yards per game), an inexplicable eight games with zero or one touchdown and a sack percentage (7.0%) that was a career high were all big contributors for his lackluster season. On the plus side, there were a few positives as his interceptions dropped (12), his completion percentage exceeded sixty (60.3) for just the second time in his career and he had multiple rushing touchdowns (two) for the third straight season.

In 2015, we need to see a true leap from Stafford to justify the hype. While people forget he is still just 27 years old, the memories of his 2011 season are proving to be more fluke than predictive. DLF writers have him as the QB7 while February ADP data shows him being drafted as the QB9. It is a bit presumptuous given his three straight QB2 level finishes. If you can still get some added value from the name as the rankings and ADP reflect, trading Stafford may be better than hoping for that statistical leap.

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Dan Orlovsky

Given Stafford’s injury history being a thing of the past, Orlovsky has little value. When called upon, which hasn’t been in more than two years, he has proven to be an effective fallback option. He is an unrestricted free agent who may return on a one-year tender to again back up Stafford, but there is no upside here.

Kellen Moore

The former Boise State quarterback has never attempted an NFL regular season pass. He was undrafted and now a restricted free agent. I doubt the Lions resign him and instead opt to take a developmental quarterback late in the draft.

Running Backs

Joique Bell

Bell is a no frills running back, having averaged 3.9 yards in each of the last two seasons. He fights through contact (2.6 yards after contact, sixth in the NFL) and forces missed tackles (33, tied for tenth). Bell’s receptions plunged from 53 to 34, but that was directly a result of Reggie Bush being healthy and Theo Riddick emerging as another pass catching back. That was alleviated by the fact he established a new career high in carries (223) and matched his touchdowns from a season ago (eight).

2015 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of last year. That’s fine as Bell delivered RB2 value at a discounted price. While the DLF writers see the value here, ranking him as an RB24, the ADP data suggests a slight discount (RB31). The age may play into that discount (28 years old), but the low mileage may give him a Fred Jackson-type of shelf life.

Reggie Bush

Now approaching 30, Bush is showing signs of decline and has been released by Detroit. Drops in yards per carry (4.5 to 3.9), yards per reception (9.4 to 6.3), and an inability to break long runs (31% to 20% of yards coming from 15+ yards) are all trending his arrow downward. The 40 catches in just seven games helped salvage some value, but it also allowed Theo Riddick to emerge as an alternative. DLF writers have him at RB40 while February ADP suggests that is generous (RB57). It will be interesting to see where he lands, but he’ll undoubtedly be a secondary option wherever that may be.

Theo Riddick

While he struggles running the ball (2.6 yards per carry on 20 touches), Riddick has a penchant for catching out of the backfield. While the 34 catches don’t look like much, he had a pair of 75 yard games (on 13 catches) during a two game stretch while Bush was injured, showing what he is capable of. With Bush gone, he may get more opportunities.

Riddick has another year under contract but it is hard to say what his role will be in 2015. He has the potential to be a Darren Sproles option for the team but we need to see who may be taking the receiving workload in front of him. After all, the Lions could add another running back via the draft or free agency. He is ranked as the RB70 by DLF and is the RB61 in Februrary’s ADP data – that’s a good range for an upside flyer like Riddick.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson

How easy people forget. Megatron struggled with injuries, missing three games and less than 100% in several more, yet still managed to exceed 1,000 yards (1,077) and scored eight touchdowns. That had him on pace for 1,300 yards and double digit touchdowns, which would have been good for a fifth straight top five finish. Johnson’s 0.48 fantasy points per pass route in 2014 was actually higher than his 2012 (0.45) season, again refuting the claims of his early demise.

While Golden Tate assumed a lead role in Johnson’s absence, this is still Megatron’s team. It is fair to expect him to miss a game or two, but his per game volume shouldn’t change and he will remain a WR1 for several more years at a minimum. While the DLF writers hold firm at the WR6, February ADP has him dropping to WR10 in favor of several younger receivers. These past months have represented the lowest market for him since he entered the league, there is still a bit of a discount if you are willing to be persistent.

Golden Tate

While everyone assumed leaving Seattle would help Tate, no one expected the 2014 season he had. Tate finished fifth in receptions (99), seventh in receiving yards (1,331), and had a catch rate (73%) that was third highest among receivers with at least 100 targets. There are, however, reasons for concern. His two highest receiving games and two of his four touchdowns came during the three game stretch Johnson was injured.

Tate will not be the 99-catch player he was in 2014, but he won’t be forgotten, either. He was still targeted 7.6 times per game when Johnson played, catching 75% of those passes. The touchdowns will be limited, but he is capable of being an 80-to-90 catch player in 2015. DLF and ADP data both have him as the WR24, which seems a little low for him. There could be some opportunity to buy a little lower than what his 2014 stats would make you think.

Jeremy Ross

Ross was third amongst Lions receivers in targets (35) and catches (24), but was fairly useless with just two games exceeding three targets and no games with more than three catches. He is a restricted free agent and his abilities on special teams will likely bring him back onto the roster in 2015. There is little to no upside here, even in leagues that score return yardage.

Corey Fuller

Fuller had even less opportunity than Ross (31 targets) and struggled to do much with them, managing only 14 catches on the year. Fuller is explosive, averaging 15.1 yards per catch, but those stone hands will hold him back from being much more than the occasional deep threat. Nothing to see here, moving on.

Tight Ends

Eric Ebron

Dynasty owners tend to lose sight of the long learning curve for tight ends. Ebron was no exception as his rookie season was a disappointment to any owner expecting a year one contribution. He had just 25 catches off his 47 targets, averaging less than 10 yards per catch (9.9), failing to show the athleticism that convinced the Lions to spend a high first round pick on him.

While the logjam at tight end will continue in Detroit, Ebron is the best choice for a third option behind Johnson and Tate in the Detroit passing game. I expect to see improvements here with upticks in targets (60-70) and receptions (35-45), but not enough to make him a consistent threat. DLF has him as the TE12 while February ADP has him at TE8, making his market value rooted more in potential than production.

Brandon Pettigrew/Joseph Fauria

Unless you are in the deepest of leagues, neither of these players should be owned. DLF has Fauria the TE39 and Pettigrew the TE40 while Fauria is the TE47 in February’s ADP data. They combined for 16 catches and 144 yards in 2014 – no, thanks.

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