Dynasty Capsule: Green Bay Packers

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our capsules from the land of cheese.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers

What is there to say about Rodgers that hasn’t already been mentioned? His touchdown to interception ratio (38:5) led the league and he was second to Tony Romo in yards per attempt (8.4). The latter stat is important as Rodgers was only 14^th in passing attempts (520), making his ability to maximize his opportunity key in being an elite quarterback. He also limits mistakes; no more than 11 interceptions in a season since 2008 and four straight in single digits. The Packers have continually invested draft picks in skill players around him, making a question of talent a moot point. At just 31, there is no reason to think he can’t remain a top 20 dynasty option for the next five-to-seven years.

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Matt Flynn/Scott Tolzien

Other than 2013, Rodgers has played at least 15 games in every season he has started. Both quarterbacks are unrestricted free agents and it is likely at least one will not be re-signed. Flynn has done well with the Packers (16 touchdowns, ten interceptions) over the years and understands the offense, but his upside is limited to a game manager when called upon. Tolzien flopped miserably in 2013 (one touchdown, five interceptions), causing the team to acquire Flynn late in the year. Since then, he has not had a regular season snap and I suspect the team will choose a developmental quarterback in the draft rather than offer Tolzien a contract.

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy

Lacy had a slow start this year with five of his first six games under 3.3 yards per carry – that led to calls of a timeshare with James Starks or worse, being benched in favor of the veteran. Lacy responded by never averaging below 3.5 yards per carry in a game afterward and improving across the board relative to his rookie season. Increases in his yards per carry (4.1 to 4.6), catches (35 to 42), total touchdowns (11 to 13), and total yards from scrimmage (1,435 to 1,566) were just a few ways he improved his productivity and helped dynasty teams. He is still just 24 and has delivered a pair of RB1 seasons for owners, making his top 25 status justified. There are few backs who are consistent year-to-year bellcows, but Lacy is proving to be one.

James Starks

Starks is less the upside backup you hope will become featured and more the veteran who can step in and perform moderately if called upon. He has a 4.3 yard per carry average for his career (3.9 last year) but has never averaged more than 12 carries per game for an entire season and has only started five games (in five NFL seasons). If you like to handcuff your top back, I am not opposed to keeping Starks on your roster, but I would only do so in deeper leagues not at the expense of a younger player with more upside.

John Kuhn/Dujuan Harris

Both are unrestricted free agents and neither have any kind of upside. The only reason they are listed is that they remain the only running backs (Kuhn is technically a fullback but that’s nitpicking) who had a carry outside of Lacy and Starks in 2014.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson

The man I just found out is nicknamed “White Lightning” is also the safest option amongst the Packers’ receiving core. A four-year contract extension makes his situation stable and his quarterback is the best in the league, so there is little not to like. With 2014 career highs in targets (151), catches (98), and yards (1,519); Nelson is an option who can be relied on for the next three-to-five years at a minimum to remain a wide receiver one on a dynasty team. Jordy is currently ranked the WR9 in the DLF dynasty wide receiver rankings, which seems right for me given his production, age (29) and situation.

Randall Cobb

Let’s go from stability to one big question mark. Will Cobb be on the Green Bay Packers’ roster in 2015? Recent rumors have suggested he is looking for a similar average salary to Nelson and at just 24 years old, it doesn’t seem completely unreasonable. I’m just not sure the Packers are the team willing to give that contract provided their receiving corps and other team needs. That being said, Cobb surpassed 1,000 yards (1,287) for the first time and set career highs in targets (127), receptions (91), touchdowns (12), and games started (16). Right now, Cobb is the WR12 on DLF and that shouldn’t fluctuate more than a handful of spots in the rankings barring a move to a conservative or dysfunctional offense.

Davante Adams

Adams has garnered significant hype as the season progressed, ranking as the WR22 on DLF with two writers placing him in the top 15. Some of that may be based on the possibility Cobb leaves, but four games of five or more catches (with a sixth in the playoffs) in his rookie season, Rodgers showed a level of trust in his young receiver. I would like to see his catch rate improve (57%) and he has disappeared at times (nine games of zero or one catch) so there are reasons to be concerned. Adams could easily break that top 15 were Cobb to leave and Adams absorb his position in the pecking order or he could remain a tertiary option if Cobb resigns. I’m not selling Adams where I have him, but I’m not buying at his current price either.

Jarrett Boykin

Boykin is a restricted free agent with experience in the Green Bay offense. He went from 83 targets in 2013 to just 12 in 2014, a result of Nelson and Cobb remaining healthy as well as the emergence of Adams. If the team decides Cobb is too expensive, Boykin will be a cheap way to ensure depth at the position at a lower cost. He is currently the WR86 on DLF and would only see a rise in the rankings if he made a leap to a more WR needy team.

Jeff Janis

If you’re a member of “Team Tall WR,” Janis has you covered. He has the requisite size (6’3”) to be a threat in the red zone and looks like the guy most rooting for Cobb and Boykin to leave. He didn’t get much of a chance to play with appearances in just three games and totaled two catches on two targets for the season. Janis is the WR93 on DLF but he’s more optimistically viewed as the WR63 in the February dynasty ADP data so he is trending upward.

Jared Abbrederis

The “other” 2014 rookie for the Packers, Abbrederis received the least amount of hype after an ACL tear ruined his rookie season. Despite being a walk-on at nearby Wisconsin, Abbrederis was a one thousand yard (1,081) receiver his senior season. Add in his track background (Gatorade national track athlete of the year in high school) and it shows his athletic ability. Abbrederis could be the darkhorse to ascend the depth chart assuming his recovery is on schedule. He is not ranked by the DLF writers and is the 107^th WR taken in the February ADP data so there is major upside at a very low price here.

Tight Ends

Richard Rodgers

While I don’t care for the Green Bay tight end position, Rodgers is an intriguing option. He’s not particularly explosive, but has good hands (67% catch rate) and is a smart route runner. The blocking liability he presents limited his playing time (just five starts) and led to just 30 targets on the season. If he can improve as a blocker, he could become a bigger part of the offense as an underneath option, flashing low to mid-level TE2 upside.

Andrew Quarless

He’s a blocker first and barely a receiver second. He caught 29 passes on 46 targets but he is not going to do much after the catch. He should not be on your radar, ever.

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