Dynasty Capsule: San Diego Chargers

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our march through the NFL with the San Diego Chargers.

Quarterback 

Philip Rivers

Rivers finished the 2014 season as the QB11, and has been a QB1 nearly every year since 2008. Other than a poor 2012 season, he has simply been a consistent and reliable source for fantasy points. Will that continue in 2015? Rivers is 33 years old and has been durable, boasting a streak of playing nine straight years without missing a game. However, Rivers played through back and rib injuries in 2014 and may require back surgery.

The Chargers offensive line had a tough time with injuries this year and cycled through centers like drummers in Spinal Tap. The Chargers’ offensive line finished 12th in the NFL in QB hits and 17th in sacks allowed. Nick Hardwick, the Chargers long-time center, got injured and is now retired. Jeremy Clary, right guard, also retired. Left tackle King Dunlap is a free agent, leaving UFA Chad Rinehart and DJ Fluker as the only left-overs in the starting unit. Looks like a lot of changes are in store for the Chargers’ offensive line in 2015. That might not be so bad, as the team was poor in rushing offense and average in pass-protection. Rivers undoubtedly helped mask many deficiencies in this group and it could’ve been worse.

I still think Rivers can perform as a QB1 in fantasy leagues for the next 1-2 years. He played a solid game against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense and even a poor performance against Miami could at least be explained by Rivers taking chances down 27-0 in the 3rd quarter. Rivers’ ADP is 136, and that is solid value in round 11 for a fantasy starter. Head coach Mike McCoy and his staff have done a nice job patching together an offensive line and rushing attack with free agents. Rivers would benefit from a talent infusion at offensive line and needs a running back who can threaten the defense. Change will clearly be in store this off-season for San Diego and it’s all worth monitoring.

Kellen Clemens

Clemens is the backup to Rivers and is not worth rostering in dynasty leagues. He had three pass attempts with one completion in two games, is 31 years old and is strictly back-up material. There’s no upside here.

Running Back

Ryan Mathews

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Mathews 2014 season was unsurprisingly limited by injuries. His first two games couldn’t have been any tougher as he faced stacked boxes (routinely 7-8 defenders near the line of scrimmage) against tough run defenses (Arizona and Seattle). Though Mathews didn’t have a nice-looking box score (23 carries for 71 yards, 1 TD, 3.0 YPC), I thought he ran tough and had a nice 20-yard run for a touchdown against Arizona. Mathews also had a nice six-yard run for a touchdown nullified by penalty, outrunning both Earl Thomas and Byron Maxwell to the end-zone. The offensive line just got physically whipped, often getting blown backwards at the snap. Rivers even got dragged down handing the ball to Mathews, after tight end David Johnson missed a block on Seahawks defensive tackle Brandon Mebane. Mathews did the best he could in games one and two, but was not helped by an overmatched offensive line.

Mathews fared much better upon his return from an injured knee week 11, rushing for 189 yards against solid competition in his three games back (Rams, Ravens and Patriots) for a healthy 5.4 YPC. Mathews had an impressive 32-yard touchdown against a tough Rams defense that showed vision, balance and an extra-gear to outrun defenders.

Sadly, Mathews cannot stay healthy. He has completed one full season (2013) and still got injured in the playoffs. He has a career 4.38 YPC and is a productive fantasy asset when healthy. Mathews is a free agent this year and it’s unclear whether he gets re-signed by San Diego. Given the depth at running back in the draft and available options in free agency, it wouldn’t surprise me if San Diego let him walk. Still, Mathews won’t be expensive, is 27 years old (but with limited touches) and knows the offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if San Diego re-signs him to a cheap contract. It is also possible a team like New England signs him and he gains significant fantasy value. I would consider trading for him, as he will be undoubtedly cheap in dynasty leagues and has been productive when healthy. Relative to his price tag, I think Mathews is a bargain in dynasty right now. Expectations are in check, but his price tag won’t carry a ton of risk. I would kick the tires on him in dynasty leagues to see if he can be had for a cheap price.

Danny Woodhead

Woodhead only played three games after sustaining a fractured ankle, finishing 2014 with just 38 yards rushing, five receptions for 34 yards and no touchdowns. In 2013, Woodhead had 76 receptions, so that’s quite a fall. With the emergence of Branden Oliver, Woodhead might be expendable. Woodhead would leave the Chargers with $2 million of dead money on their cap if he were cut (per spotrac.com), and given the Chargers have needs at many positions (OL, RB, WR, DE, CB, S), it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chargers release him in favor of Oliver (2015 salary $510,000). I think Woodhead could still have PPR relevance and is cheap, but we will have to see how this situation plays out.

Branden Oliver

Oliver emerged after Mathews and Woodhead missed time with injuries. He had a bit of a break out in the preseason, and astute owners who picked him up were rewarded with solid PPR production. I don’t see Oliver as feature-back material. He averaged less than three yards per carry in nine games, but provided a boost in PPR leagues with 36 receptions. Oliver is young, cheap, excels in the receiving game and he should have a role on third-downs in 2015, especially if Woodhead is cut. Oliver is the RB1 in San Diego right now, but that probably won’t last for long. I still think he is an attractive target in dynasty leagues, especially PPR formats. I’m a buyer.

Donald Brown 

Brown had a typical season featuring dropped passes and meager production as a running back. He finished with 223 yards rushing (2.6 YPC), 29 receptions and no touchdowns. Brown is under contract through 2016, but his cap hit for 2015 is too high ($4 million). I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown restructures, but either way I’m not targeting him in dynasty formats. His upside is nil and even when Mathews got hurt, Brown got beat out by Oliver. He doesn’t even carry value as a handcuff. If Brown starts in 2015, the Chargers are in trouble. He is only worth rostering in deep dynasty leagues.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen

Allen is a favorite of mine. I love his competitiveness and toughness. He may not be a burner, but he’s a solid route-runner and simply gets open. Allen does have a penchant for getting nicked up and that is a concern. If he can stay healthy, I think Allen could be a low-end WR1 in PPR, but his floor should be a mid-WR2. Given he is being drafted as the WR18, I think he is available at a slight discount. He will be just 23 years old at the kick-off of 2015 and I believe his best years are ahead. I’m definitely buying Allen in dynasty formats. He could be available at a reduced price given his 2014 season didn’t meet expectations.

Malcom Floyd 

Floyd stayed healthy for the first time since 2009, posting respectable numbers (52 receptions, 856 yards receiving, six touchdowns). He is 33 years old and finished as the WR29 in 2014. Considering Floyd’s 2015 MFL ADP is undrafted and his DLF ADP is 225, Floyd is clearly out-performing his draft position. Contenders may want to grab Floyd, as it costs nothing to acquire him and yet he could give sneaky WR3 production. Rivers loves the guy so he’s not a bad option if injuries strike. He should be back with San Diego in 2015.

Eddie Royal

Royal is a free agent and, much like Floyd, outproduced his price-point in 2014 (62 receptions, 778 yards, seven touchdowns). Royal finished as the WR30 in 2014, although his production was a bit hot and cold. He started off hot with 16 receptions for 216 yards receiving and four touchdowns in games 2-4, but was only start-worthy in games 13 and 16 the rest of the season. The obvious problem with Royal is his fantasy production is hard to predict. Still, there were worse options than Royal at the flex spot or as an emergency starter in 2014. He is a free agent and shouldn’t cost much, but it remains to be seen where he plays in 2015. Royal carries minimal dynasty value and no upside. He is likely available on waiver wires in most dynasty leagues and if he leaves San Diego, I’m not sure he will get utilized enough to carry any value next season.

Dontrelle Inman

I’m excited about Inman. He was productive in the CFL with 1,542 yards and 11 touchdowns in two seasons. He has good size (6’3″, 205 lbs.) and had a 4.47 40 yard dash at his Pro Day in 2011. He finished the 2014 season in good form with 12 receptions for 158 yards against San Francisco and Kansas City. Inman made tough catches against the 49ers, showing good hands, agility, body control and adjustment to poorly thrown balls. I don’t think he will be a burner in the NFL, but he could be a solid PPR option. Inman could get an opportunity if Royal moves on and Floyd gets injured. I’m a buyer for sure.

Austin Pettis

Pettis was signed as a free agent by San Diego, but I don’t see him having much of a role in 2015. I’m much more intrigued by Allen and Inman, while Floyd still will get his touches, health permitting. I’m not targeting Pettis, even in deep dynasty formats. No upside here.

Tight End 

Antonio Gates

Gates is perennially undervalued in dynasty formats. He finished as the TE3 in 2014 PPR and TE2 in standard scoring leagues. Gates is being drafted as the TE20 in 2015 MFL, and was a steal in 2014 drafts (MFL 2014 ADP 141, TE16). Gates will be 35 years old at kick-off in 2015, but he isn’t a free agent until 2016. Per spotrac.com, Gates carries a cap hit of $9.76 million in 2015, and the Chargers would save close to $6 million in cutting him (2015 dead cap $3.86 million). At first glance, it seems like cutting Gates could make financial sense, but I think it’s unlikely. Gates is still producing at a high-level, and Rivers loves him. Gates’ DLF ADP is 181 (TE23), just ahead of Tim Wright (ADP 183) and behind Mychal Rivera (ADP 171, TE21) – that valuation is too low given his level of production. Gates is a perfect target for contenders, especially in TE-premium leagues.

Ladarius Green

Green was a huge disappointment for dynasty players in 2014, finishing as the TE51, behind such names as Jack Doyle, Cooper Heifert and Rhett Ellison. Green had a September ADP 81 as the TE7, so that’s a sizable fall from grace. He is still being drafted at a premium, carrying a January 2015 DLF ADP 93 as the TE10. Green is even being drafted as the TE14, ahead of Gates, in MFL re-draft leagues right now – that’s expensive for a player who may not be helpful for dynasty players until 2016, if ever. As much as I like Green’s talent, I think that’s far too much draft capital to invest in him.

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