Pre-Combine Dynasty Mock Draft, Round Three
The Super Bowl just ended (and quite the finish it was), but for those of you who have been around DLF for a while now you know there is no resting on our laurels. The combine is underway and we are already breaking down the 2015 draft class to provide you with all of the information you need to rise to the top of your dynasty leagues or to stay on top if you’re already there!
One of the many ways we do this is by giving you a detailed look at how a rookie draft might play out in your league. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish has that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. It is very important to keep in mind it is very, very early in the process. Players will see major changes in their draft stock coming from the combine, pro days, and of course the NFL Draft. There will be players who will climb many rounds and others who will completely fall off draft boards. Because it is so early, there might be widely different views of a player since many of us are just beginning our rookie evaluations as well.
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft that was completed prior to the combine was as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time-to-time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong, especially at this early stage in the process.
In case you missed them, here are the previous rounds: First and Second.
The first round had a lot of wide receivers early before rounding out with some running backs. The second round only had a pair of receivers, a pair of quarterbacks, the only tight end of the mock, and the rest were running backs. The third round went back to the wide receiver position with every selection except for two coming from the position. While there seems to be a definitely drop off from the first to third round receivers, there is also considerable depth at the wide receiver position once again this year.
At this point in the off-season, players in the third round all carry roughly the same value. What it really comes down to at this point in time is personal preference. Several of these players will see drastic changes in their stock over the next few months. Some might be early seconds while others won’t even be draftable. So don’t put too much stock in the order right now because too much will change with this group. Let’s take a look at how it all shook out.
3.01 – Breshad Perriman, WR Central Florida
Nick’s thoughts: Perriman has good size, athleticism, high points the football, and has soft hands. He wasn’t utilized much, so his numbers aren’t very impressive. I don’t think he has a high ceiling, but it’s not low either. I could see Perriman developing into a solid WR in the NFL and potentially good if paired with a significant quarterback. I was stuck between Perriman and Vince Mayle. The determining factor was Perriman has a thicker frame and played more physical.
My thoughts: I think Perriman will be one of the big risers as this off-season progresses. I fully expect him to be drafted in the early second round by the time most rookie drafts roll around, and might even be over drafted in several leagues. He has nice size, a solid build and surprising athleticism for someone of his size. He is very quick, has nice top end speed and can handle tight coverage. The fact his father was an NFL receiver doesn’t hurt either, but that was also one of the big selling points for Brian Robiskie. Of course it isn’t all roses for Perriman. He relied too much on being bigger, faster, and stronger than his competition in college. As a result, he is a sloppy route runner and is lacking in techniques. At times, he also struggles to bring in very easy passes. He is going to be a risky pick for an NFL team if he is drafted early, but the upside is there.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
3.02 – Stefon Diggs, WR Maryland
Rob’s thoughts: In hindsight, I am not thrilled with the Diggs selection. His game stagnated a bit at Maryland and he may still be living off recruiting hype. However, he does have more talent than most this late, and the talent drops off precipitously after round two. If he can find a scheme that can mask his limitations, he may have periodic value as a versatile playmaker.
My thoughts: Diggs was supposed to be one of the best college receivers of the last few years. He was a five star recruit at the receiver position, which there are only a handful of each year. Things started well his freshman year, but never improved on those marks. He is a little bit on the small side but has nice body control and natural hands. He also has athleticism to spare. My concerns with Diggs are partially based on his size and partially on his desire. He struggles to beat physical defenders and seemed to be easily overpowered by bigger players. There were also times when he would give up on routes or avoid fighting for extra yards because he didn’t want to take a big hit. This might be linked in part to two major injuries during college or might just be a lack of toughness. He seems a little bit like a player who peaked when he was named a five star recruit and is just coasting on that reputation. I’m not overly optimistic about his pro prospects.
3.03 – Justin Hardy, WR East Carolina
Russell’s thoughts: Age has become a slight concern, but based on his overall skill set, he’s worth it in the third round. Hardy finished his career as the all-time leader in receptions. He could become a QB’s best friend in the slot.
My thoughts: I’m not really worried about age at all. Exactly how long into the future are we projecting players now? Hardy is 23 not 28, so if he pans out he’ll still have at least eight years of productivity – that’s way more than enough. Anyway, Hardy is a great route runner with a very aggressive and tough mentality. He’ll chew defenses up over the middle of the field and make all of the tough catches. My concern with Hardy is from an athletic standpoint. He doesn’t seem to be exceptionally gifted from a speed and agility stand point, which makes me wonder about his exact upside as a slot receiver with average physical talents. The combine will be a big deal for him.
3.04 – Phillip Dorsett, WR Miami
Paul’s thoughts: This pick was the toughest of my three as I was torn between two players from the University of Miami; Dorsett and standout tight end Clive Walford. If Maxx Williams is being selected at pick 2.02, I do not think Walford should still be on the board at 3.04, as I do not see a huge gap between those two players. In the end, I decided to go with Dorsett because he eight on my wide receiver rankings and I thought he should have been selected by the middle of round two. Dorsett has elite speed but is more than just a vertical threat. He can win from inside at the slot or be a weapon on the outside as well. He attacks the ball well for a smaller receiver. I think his game is similar to TY Hilton or John Brown, but Dorsett has aimed even higher saying he models his game after Antonio Brown and Steve Smith.
My thoughts: I don’t know about Paul’s views on Walford as I feel like this tight end class is Williams and then everyone else. Or maybe it is Williams and no one else, depending on how you look at it. As for the selection, Dorsett is another player who will be rising up boards over the next few months, especially after the combine when people see him run. Most people think of him as a deep threat, but I think he’s a little bit more than that though as he has very impressive ability to start and stop on a dime, giving him the potential to turn into an elite route runner as well. The only thing holding him back at the next level will be his size. He is being reported at around 5’9” and about 180 pounds – that’s pretty small for an NFL receiver. I would like to see him bulk up a bit, but I’m not sure he can do that and keep his speed.
3.05 – Karlos Williams, RB Florida State
Jeff’s thoughts: There are some major red flags when it comes to character concerns for FSU running back Karlos Williams. Once considered a top running back prospect as a blue chip high schooler, Williams had a very disappointing junior season as he was overshadowed by Dalvin Cook. He’ll likely need to find a home after the NFL Draft as a free agent due to the character concerns but he’s got the size (6’1″, 225), speed and explosiveness to eventually be an NFL running back, so I have no problem swinging for the fences on him here in the middle of the third round.
My thoughts: Williams might be this year’s Isaiah Crowell. He isn’t quite as talented as Crowell, but he is the same story of talented running back with major character red flags. He has nice size for the position, solid speed, and decent agility. It didn’t always translate onto the field as he struggled to break tackles and didn’t always bounce off of defenders like the best running backs do. He’ll be a late round pick or a priority free agent where some NFL team can give him a shot with very low risk. He could be a decent NFL back, but I think the chances are he’s in a different line of work in a few years.
3.06 – Rashad Greene, WR Florida State
My thoughts: I was hoping Greene would slip this far in the draft. He’s going somewhere between the late second and late third, so there is a pretty wide range on him right now. Winston’s top target over the last two years, Greene just might be one of the best route runners and natural catchers in this year’s draft class. He very, very rarely commits a drop and is almost always right where he should be on the field. He is a big reason why Winston didn’t lose a regular season game for his entire college career.
The issues with Greene probably come down to his upside. While he is quick, I’m not sure exactly how fast he is, though the combine will help with that. His size is the other big concern. He is right around six feet tall, but he is rather lean. He is very likely to struggle against physical coverage by bigger and stronger NFL defenders. His route running will help him create separation, but he is going to need to adapt to press coverage. At this point he likely projects as a complementary receiver in the NFL, though some are saying he has some Emmanuel Sanders to his game.
3.07 – Deontay Greenberry, WR Houston
Aaron’s thoughts: I really like Greenberry, but not being invited to the combine is going to hurt him. He likely could have benefited from waiting for the 2016 class, but he was a five star recruit coming out of high school who found a way to produce at a lesser known college program. At 6’3″ 210 lb., Greenberry has good red zone size and a knack for creating separation. Might not be productive immediately, but he could serve as a Martavis Bryant-type in the NFL.
My thoughts: Greenberry is going to be one of the ultimate lottery tickets this year. He has a ton of upside to go with his near elite size/speed combo. Unfortunately, he never seemed to capitalize on all of that potential. He went from a five star recruit out of high school to not even being invited to the NFL combine. One of his biggest issues is a litany of drops. It seemed to be more than just focus, but he is likely to find a home in the NFL just based on his measurables. The question is what he does once he gets there. Great taxi squad stash for the year.
3.08 – Tony Lippett, WR Michigan State
George’s thoughts: Aaron must have been reading off my cheat sheet as he took Marcus Mariota before I drafted Algohor in round two and again foiled me by drafting Deontay Greenberry in the third. Lippett is a nice consolation, however, and showed his transition from cornerback to wide receiver was a smart one. At 6’3”, the height is there but being under 200 pounds is a little thin for the position at that height, making the rigors of dealing with physical cornerbacks that much harder. He does have speed to burn though as his track background shows, making him an ideal deep threat and a worthy flyer. He showed during his senior season that he can take over games (his 11 touchdown receptions led the Big 10) and has improved on his hands and route running each season. I can see Lippett’s upside hovering anywhere from Jabar Gaffney to Sidney Rice (similarly built, polished college receivers).
My thoughts: Lippett is another tall but lean receiver in this draft class. As one would expect from his size, he is very successful at going up to get the ball but struggles against physical cornerbacks both at the catch point and in press coverage. He showed impressive body control near the sidelines and in the end zone this season as well. With it being his first year at the wide receiver position, he struggled as expected with route running. He is going to need to put in a lot of time and most likely bulk up a bit to be successful in the NFL, but he has the tools to make it.
3.09 – DeAndre Smelter, WR Georgia Tech
Kyle’s thoughts: Smelter will be a steal in rookie drafts. He tore his ACL late in the season, causing him to miss the last two games of the season. He still managed to snag an invite to the NFL combine, but I’m not sure if he will be able to participate in any drills. I absolutely lover Smelter’s game and think he has the tools to be a team’s number one receiver. If he ends up in a nice spot, I don’t know if you’ll be able to get him this late.
My thoughts: Smelter was on my short list at the sixth pick in this round. He is exactly what you would expect from a Georgia Tech wide receiver over the last decade. He has great size at 6’3” and over 220 pounds and the speed to take the top off of defenses. While he definitely isn’t as talented as Calvin Johnson or Demaryius Thomas, he has the tools to get drafted. The biggest question is if he is going to be able to work at refining his route running and technique to reach an NFL level from the limited route trees Georgia Tech receivers run. He also needs to bounce back from an ACL tear, which might keep him off the field as a rookie.
3.10 – Vince Mayle, WR Washington State
Nathan’s thoughts: Mayle has already become a metrics favorite of sorts, the 6’3″, 219-pound receiver out of Washington State put up 2022 yards and 16 touchdowns in his college career, well worth the later flyer in the third round. Sometimes at the smaller schools, people overlook the production numbers, but I think that would be a mistake, his height/weight/production are exactly what I look for in later round prospects.
My thoughts: Mayle is another player who will be flying up draft boards after the combine. He has great size and a lot of speed to go with it. Toss in mental toughness, physicality at the catch point and top notch ball skills and you have something NFL teams will drool over. Why is he still around in the third round then? He is about as raw as you can be at the wide receiver position. His route running is nowhere near what it needs to be at the NFL level, and his overall technique needs some work as well. He’ll likely be a second round fantasy pick by the time most drafts roll around if the combine goes as well as I expect.
3.11 – Brett Hundley, QB UCLA
Doug’s thoughts: Coming back in the third round, I wasn’t crazy about what I was seeing. Brett Hundley has the arm and the athleticism, but his decision making is a work in progress. In this situation, he’s a player with plenty of talent and a high upside. If he lands somewhere that he can learn from a veteran QB or an offensive minded coach (I’m looking at you Kansas City and New Orleans), his future could be very bright indeed.
My thoughts: Once upon a time, Hundley was pegged as having the potential to be a first overall pick in the NFL Draft. From a physical standpoint, he is pretty close to that level. However, the mental side of his game and the finer points of technique requires quite a bit of refinement. At this point in time, he is looking a little bit like Jay Cutler with amazing throws and plays one moment and then a bonehead decision the next. In the right hands, he could be molded into a solid NFL starter, but it will ultimately depend on where he goes.
3.12 – DaVaris Daniels, WR Notre Dame
Aaron’s thoughts: Admittedly, this was a bit of a shot in the dark as Daniels has all of the maturity questions of anyone after he was suspended his last season from playing at Notre Dame. This will likely lead to Daniels falling toward the end of the draft despite being a much more talented receiver. At 6’2″ 203, he does is best as a move receiver, likely out of the slot, and will probably find his way onto a roster as a special teams player. Daniels is a player who could easily completely fall off my radar based on where players land after the draft or how the Combine goes for many of these players.
My thoughts: Had Daniels not made some poor choices and been suspended for the year due to cheating, we might be talking about him as an early round selection. Instead he is going to slide a bit, not just for the questionable choice but also because he didn’t get to take his game to the next level this year. He is a good athlete with the speed and quickness to make it in the NFL. One thing I’ll be watching very closely is his size. I think he is under 200 pounds, which would be a bit of a red flag at 6’2” or taller. If he comes in at over 200 pounds, it tells me he put in a lot of effort in the gym this year while suspended, which would greatly raise my opinion of him. He’s definitely a player to watch.
That’s it for our 36 picks in this mock draft. Who are the players you are surprised went undrafted? An awful lot will change in the coming weeks, so we’ll be back with lots of other mock drafts.
[/am4show]
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
