Winning in Year One
The NFL season is officially over, the Super Bowl Champion Patriots have been crowned and dynasty startup season is about to be in full swing. When building your dynasty team in year one of a startup, whether it via an auction or snake draft, you have to make the all-important decision of prioritizing winning now or building for the future. This very question has frustrated dynasty players for years, “There has to be a better way!” Well folks, there is in my opinion. There is an inherent flaw in the valuation of dynasty players today that allows for exploitation. For me, when I am building a dynasty team, young wide receivers are the priority early and often. Young wide receivers seem to have the most sustainable value year-to-year and they are drafted the highest – 24 of the top 40 players in January ADP were wide receivers. The major flaw in the market is how we value the other positions – quarterback, running back and tight end, particularly players who aren’t valued as long term assets at those positions.
[inlinead]Whether it be re-draft or dynasty, one of the advantages of early round quarterback strategy is comfort. When you have an elite quarterback, you can set your lineup and forget about it with no worries of streaming the quarterback position, which can be difficult in dynasty. When people draft Andrew Luck in the top 20 of dynasty startups this off-season, a major part of why they are doing that is they are getting a QB1 for the next 10+ years and they won’t have to prioritize that position via a rookie draft, the waiver wire or trades for the foreseeable future. The issue with this thinking is QB1 production can be acquired very cheaply on a year-to-year basis. Instead of sacrificing a pick on a quarterback that you could instead be using on Kelvin Benjamin or Jordan Matthews, quarterbacks like Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger can often be acquired for about a 10+ round startup pick or a second round rookie pick via trade. Those are just two examples of players can give you QB1 production, sure they’re not as high scoring as Andrew Luck, but they’re also nowhere near the price in dynasty.
While you aren’t getting the security of QB1 numbers for years to come with this strategy, the trade value of players like Rivers or Roethlisberger is going to be relatively stagnant, so when one of the players falls off in production, other quarterbacks with similar production and age will be available for a similarly low price. In Superflex and two quarterback leagues, this strategy does get a little bit more tricky, in which case, I spend one high selection on a dependable long term quarterback and go for a pair of cheaper quarterbacks at QB2/QB3,it is riskier long term because quarterbacks are always expensive to acquire in two quarterback leagues, but I think it’s a risk you have to take in order to win in year one and have a solid group of young wide receivers in the future.
It is no secret the value of running backs is ever changing and the landscape of the top dynasty backs seems to be very different every year. Because of this, spending a top pick (the first four rounds) on a running back is a risky proposition in regards to sustainable value. Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin and CJ Spiller were all top 20 selections in February 2014 ADP and only Lacy has held the same market value he did just 12 months ago. Cheap, old running backs – they are the favorites for those with the heavy early young wide receiver approach like myself. Much like quarterbacks, just because a running back doesn’t have any long term dynasty value, that doesn’t mean they can’t help you win a championship in year one. I’m not saying it’s the easiest thing in the world to do, but top 20 running backs can be found in rounds ten or later. Justin Forsett was the RB97 in February 2014 ADP and he finished as the RB8 this year. Other examples include the ageless wonder Fred Jackson at RB53 who had a RB16 finish and Joique Bell at RB38 who had a RB13 finish.
With wide receivers (especially after the latest crop of rookies), young players are definitely worth the large investment in startup drafts. The key to this strategy being successful long term as well as in year one is simply picking the right players. The early young wide receiver strategy in dynasty last year had examples of it being fruitful, as well as being unsuccessful in year one. If your wide receiver heavy strategy included Michael Floyd and Cordarrelle Patterson, you probably didn’t win your 2014 championship and depending on your other picks, the future of your team is not as bright as you would hope. If your early young wide receiver strategy included the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown, you are sitting pretty long-term and were one of the top teams in the league.
With the tight end position, after the “Big 2” of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, TE1 production can be found fairly cheap on a year-to-year basis. Year in and year out, players like Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett hold more actual value than trade value. Like with quarterback, Graham and Gronkowski are safe options that all-but-guarantee TE1 production for the foreseeable future. However, while players like Olsen and Bennett aren’t locks to be TE1’s for a long time, if you look at it as just a short term investment, when they stop producing, you can acquire similar production for around a second round rookie pick price. In short, mid-low TE1’s will likely never garner a huge price tag in dynasty as they are seen as dime a dozen assets by many fantasy players.
So, essentially, the lesson here is everyone wants to build a dynasty through the wide receiver position, but if you stack your other positions with the undervalued short-term options in conjunction, you can win in year one and continue to win long-term by continually acquiring cheap short term options at quarterback, running back and tight end.
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