Early IDP Top 16

It’s always difficult to rank IDP prospects prior to the NFL draft. It’s not because of the varying talent level or the NFL competition impact, but situation is a huge value driver in IDP leagues. Sure, situation factors into player evaluation and value on the offensive side of the ball, but defensively the value of an edge rusher as a 3-4 outside linebacker compared to a 4-3 defensive end is astronomical. To put it in perspective, it’s typical for a below average talent to be productive for IDP purposes purely due to situation. While it happens offensively as well, it’s not the norm – this is why reliance on pre-draft IDP rankings can be a bit dangerous.

Nonetheless, we’re all itching for prospect discussion regardless of how it may change over the coming weeks and months. Here is an initial cut of the IDP top 16. Please keep in mind that both Combine measurements and team/situation will go a long way in driving the positions and value of a majority of these players post-draft.

Rankings based on tackle heavy scoring.

1. Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA

Coverage ability is one of the most coveted skills among linebacker prospects in the NFL today. With the league officially a passing league, it’s increasingly important to have versatile linebackers who can cover a joker tight end or drop back in zone coverage. Like his brother in Philadelphia, Kendricks has the ability to be a three down linebacker – that’s huge for IDP purposes. He may not be the first linebacker off the board in the NFL draft, but with his coverage ability, natural athleticism, and production at UCLA, he’s currently my top IDP linebacker. He’s likely to play either inside linebacker in a 3-4 or the weakside in a 4-3.

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2. Paul Dawson, WLB/ILB TCU

He’s speedy and undersized. Heard that before? It’s exactly what was said about Lavonte David and Telvin Smith. It’s a good thing speed is king these days. He’ll be a perfect 4-3 weakside linebacker. The key for Dawson is, like Kendricks, he’s excellent in coverage and he has three down potential. With his speed, aggressiveness and ability to play subpackage snaps, Dawson will be a prime rookie linebacker option and could easily be the top rookie come May. While the weakside spot is perfect for Dawson, it’s also possible he’s drafted as a 3-4 inside linebacker. Regardless, it appears he’ll be tagged to an ideal position for IDP production. The thing to keep an eye on is his off the field issues out of the Combine – they will be paramount in his draft grading and could drive a draft slide.

3. Leonard Williams, DT/DE USC

Often compared to the Buccaneers’ Gerald McCoy or former Patriot Richard Seymour, Williams is a top defensive player in this year’s draft. His versatility allows him to play either defensive tackle or defensive end in any defensive scheme, but his dominance separates him from the rest of the class. With a non-stop motor and rare blend of size, power, speed, and quickness, Williams is an ideal prospect. Unfortunately, his position will slate him lower in IDP drafts as a 4-3 defensive tackle or defensive end in either scheme. He’ll be one of the safest picks in rookie drafts.

4. Shaq Thompson, WLB/SLB Washington

Thompson is an extremely versatile player having played defensive end, linebacker, running back and safety. He’s solid in coverage making him a perfect IDP target. The problem with Thompson is he’s a tweener. He’s also on record saying he’s most comfortable as a strongside linebacker in a 4-3 since it’s most similar to the strong safety spot. If he ends up playing on the strongside, it would cap his IDP value with a low tackle ceiling with fewer opportunities. However, he could also add some pounds and play on the weakside, which would be a huge bump in value. Regardless, Thompson should be a sub-package player immediately given his coverage ability and will see a nice share of snaps and tackle opportunities because of his versatility.

5. Denzel Perryman, ILB/MLB Miami

Like Benardrick McKinney (below), Perryman may only be a two-down player due to his limitations in pass coverage, particularly man-coverage. However, he is capable in zone coverage, so a sub-package role may be something he can eventually work into. I would suspect many will rank Perryman over McKinney, but at this point, the differences between McKinney and Perryman are apparent – McKinney is more athletic, more raw, but absolutely lost in coverage. On the other hand, Perryman is more physical and better in coverage. He’s not nearly as athletic, though. I prefer Perryman’s tenacity and long-term subpackage potential to McKinney’s raw athleticism.

6. Randy Gregory, DE/OLB Nebraska

To maintain this ranking, he’ll need to be drafted as a 4-3 defensive end. Gregory possesses significant upside as a pass rusher, but may also be the most likely player to bust. Currently viewed as a top 10 NFL draft pick given his 6’6” frame and supreme athleticism, Gregory’s durability is a concern with lingering injuries throughout his college career. He also only has one year of top production at Nebraska. His immense ceiling will drive his draft grade, but if he’s drafted by a 3-4 defense, his value will plummet.

7. Landon Collins, SS Alabama

Collins is a bona fide first rounder and should be the first safety off the board. He can do it all – he’s physical enough to play in the box, can play centerfield and is capable in man coverage. He should be an immediate impact player and see a large volume of snaps straight away making him very relevant for IDP purposes.

8. Benardrick McKinney, LB (any) Miss St

This ranking may surprise some, but McKinney appears to be tabbed for a two-down NFL role. He’s super aggressive/physical and currently projected to be a first round pick. The problem is he’s a liability in coverage. His draft stock may slide further if his coverage is viewed as an issue in the predraft process. He’s likely to perform extremely well at the Combine thanks to his natural athleticism, but for IDP purposes, the coverage issues will haunt him. If he can’t improve and is relegated to a two-down role, his IDP value will be in the tank. This is something to watch at the Combine, but at this point, he’s not someone I will be targeting in IDP drafts unless he proves improved in coverage in Indianapolis.

9. Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson

Beasley is an elite pass rusher with an exceptional first step. He’s athletic and explosive, but he’s undersized for an NFL defensive end. He also struggles against the run, so he’s probably best fit as a 3-4 rush linebacker which hurts from an IDP perspective. It’s possible he plays a Von Miller-type role in a 4-3 defense, as well. If he lands in a 4-3, he’ll hold this ranking. On the contrary, if he lands in a 3-4 base defense, he’ll slide down this list considerably in tackle heavy leagues.

10. Dante Fowler, DE/OLB Florida

Fowler will need to stick as a defensive end in a 4-3 defense in order to carry meaningful IDP value. As of today, he’s often mocked to a 3-4 defense (e.g., Saints), which would result in a linebacker classification and keep his value depressed. However, we’re a long way from draft day and a lot can change as others have mocked him to the Falcons. As a pure prospect, his hand use is aggressive and effective. He’s one of the more well-balanced and refined pass rushers in this class. He’ll be a top defensive end option should he be drafted to a 4-3 defense.

11. Stephone Anthony, ILB/MLB Clemson

According to multiple reports, Anthony’s performance at the Senior Bowl last month was impressive. He flashed sideline-to-sideline speed and proved capable in coverage (though it needs improvement) which should help his draft stock. He took the first step in rising up draft boards at the Senior Bowl and now it’s onto the Combine to hammer it home. He’s a prototypical inside linebacker who is very comfortable with being physical and sorting through the trash. He’ll need to land in a favorable situation and perform well at the Combine to stick here, but the initial signs are promising.

12. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA

Odighizuwa looks the part. He’s built strong and possesses great length. While he’s not a dynamic pass rusher, he exhibits power and quickness. He’s a well-balanced end with the ability to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. His production is lacking compared to what you’d like to see, but part of that can be attributed to a hip injury that caused him to miss the entire 2013 season. Looking at the second half of 2014, it’s apparent he started feeling more comfortable. Four of his six sacks came in the last five weeks of the year. He also began making more plays defending the run over the same period. The concern with Odighizuwa is his medical history with the 2013 hip injury. He’ll need to check out at the Combine to maintain his draft value.

13. Arik Armstead, DE/DT Oregon

If a raw Ziggy Ansah type of prospect with a ton of potential is your thing, Armstead is your guy. He’s a former basketball player and an extremely raw football player. He’ll be sought after by NFL teams purely on upside as he’s yet to produce on the field. At Oregon, he only had four sacks and 10.5 tackles for a loss in three seasons. The combination of his basketball background (read: athleticism) and size (estimated 6’7” 296 pounds) has scouts and draft pundits drooling. With the right coaching, he could be dominant.

14. Chris Hackett, FS TCU

Hackett is a versatile ballhawk who should make a solid IDP prospect. He’s a free safety, but unlike Louisville’s Gerod Holliman, he doesn’t shy away from contact. With an average of over 70 tackles and five plus passes defended over the last three years along with seven interceptions in 2014, the production is apparent. Hackett should be on the field frequently because of his versatility. With his nose for the ball, he should also be productive and, overall, another safe IDP selection.

15. Shane Ray, DE/OLB Missouri

As the SEC’s defensive player of the year this season, Ray will be a highly regarded prospect with his explosive first step, elite speed and nonstop motor. He’s likely to be a better NFL player than IDP option.

His position is still in flux given his estimated size, but it’s likely that Ray will be drafted as a 3-4 outside linebacker, which will kill his IDP value outside of big-play leagues. The best case is he’s drafted into a 4-3 where he’d likely be a situational pass-rusher or a strongside linebacker. That would bump him up this list, but it’s still a low ceiling IDP spot.

16. Martrell Spaight, WLB Arkansas

A former JUCO player, Spaight’s first year of meaningful production was in 2014 in his second year with Arkansas. Despite the limited production at the college level, he’s another player who performed well at the Senior Bowl. He’s a solid all-around linebacker who plays fast, excels as a pass rusher and has a nose for the ball. Many project him as a 4-3 weakside linebacker, which bodes well for his IDP prospects. He’s someone to watch through the predraft process.

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