Dynasty Capsule: Denver Broncos
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
We continue our path through the NFL with the Denver Broncos.
Given quarterback Peyton Manning’s prodigious skill, as well as his soon-to-be 39 years of age and the Broncos’ 2014 season can only be viewed as a failure. After finishing the year with a 12-4 record, Denver achieved the second seed in the AFC playoffs, but unfortunately the bye week and home field advantage still weren’t enough of an advantage to overcome Manning’s old team, the Indianapolis Colts, in the divisional round. This early exit effectively resulted in the release of head coach John Fox, while subsequently ushering in the Gary Kubiak era. Though Fox was the first domino to fall, there remain several questions in what could amount to a tumultuous off-season in the Mile High City – let’s discuss the year that was, and what exactly the future might hold.
Quarterbacks
Whenever a player finishes the regular season as the fourth best fantasy option at his position, it’s hard to consider it a disappointing campaign. Future Hall of Famer Manning, however, isn’t any ordinary quarterback, and as such is subject to an increased level of scrutiny. While we knew Manning’s numbers were due to regress following his record-setting 2013 season, his 20.5 PPG in 2014 represented a 24.1% drop-off compared to last year when he ran away with the title of fantasy’s overall QB1. While 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns are certainly nothing to sneer at, these totals were 750 yards and 16 scores fewer than the previous year’s totals.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Digging deeper, a mid-November clash with the Rams appeared to stand as the season’s turning point. Prior to that contest Manning was averaging 275 yards and 3.2 touchdowns per game, a pair of figures which deteriorated to 259 yards and 1.4 touchdowns respectively to close the year – this culminated in the lackluster playoff performance (26/46, 211 yards, one touchdown) alluded to in the opening. It was later revealed the venerable signal caller was playing through a previously undisclosed quadriceps injury, potentially explaining the decline of his play while also begging the larger question – does Manning really want to subject his aging body to another season of NFL punishment?
As of the time of this writing, we still don’t have that answer. Sources close to Manning insist he plans on returning, and new coach Kubiak has already declared he’ll tailor his system to #18. Nevertheless, until we have a concrete resolution it’s nearly impossible to project his future, and as such I only have him ranked as my dynasty QB17.
Brock Osweiler
Osweiler’s cannon of an arm remained in the loaded position for nearly the entirety of 2014, as the third-year signal caller only attempted 10 passes. With a new regime in town it’s fair to wonder if he’ll remain “on scholarship,” and more importantly if Manning returns he’ll likely relegate the immense signal caller to the bench for the fourth and final year of his contract. I have Osweiler ranked as my dynasty QB23, but that status is decidedly written in pencil – his fate remains directly tied to Manning’s.
Running Backs
CJ Anderson
Following injuries to his counterparts Ball and Hillman, Anderson was thrust into a major role starting with an early-November tilt against the division rival Raiders. From that point on Anderson had no fewer than 15 touches in any remaining game, racking up 20+ touches six times (including playoffs). He parlayed this opportunity into a sublimely efficient 4.7 YPC and 9.5 yards-per-reception, while chipping in 10 total touchdowns. Only 23 years old, Anderson is signed cheaply for 2015, and seems like a natural fit for Kubiak’s zone-blocking system. I have him ranked as my dynasty RB10 and view him as the ball carrier to own in Denver.
Ronnie Hillman
When Ball went down it was Hillman, not Anderson, who was next up in the “Peyton Manning Running Back Assembly Line.” He looked good doing it as well, with 484 total yards in a five-game stretch versus the tough defenses of the Cardinals, Jets, 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. Disappointingly, the resurgent running back was injured the following week versus the Raiders, allowing me to redirect you to the previous blurb about Anderson. Still, Hillman is young and has flashed talent – as the potential backup to own, I have him ranked as my dynasty RB50.
Juwan Thompson
Thompson got some run due to the afore-mentioned injuries to his compatriots, and played efficiently in a small sample size. While he likely remains behind his teammates in the pecking order, it’s prudent to own every slice of the Denver running back pie. I have him ranked as my dynasty RB82.
Montee Ball
Everyone who thought 2013 second-round rookie and heir-apparent to the departed Knowshon Moreno would finish as the fourth-most valuable runner on the team, raise your hand! Anyone? Bueller, Bueller?
Indeed, it was a star-crossed season for the breakout candidate, as Ball missed 11 games on the year due to a groin injury (and subsequent re-aggravation). When on the field Ball simply couldn’t get it going, averaging a scant 3.1 YPC while the trio above combined for an aggregate 4.6 YPC. Apart from draft status there’s precious little reason to assume he’ll take back the starting job from Anderson, or even pass Hillman on the depth chart. However, with a new coaching staff comes a fresh start, and Ball looked decent enough as a rookie that I’m not going to shut the book on him just yet – I have him, perhaps generously, ranked as my dynasty RB46.
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Following a 2013 season that saw the ascendant wideout finish as the overall PPR WR1, Thomas was even better in 2014. Though he ceded the crown of top fantasy receiver to Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown, Thomas added 19.9 points to his overall tally, improving his targets, receptions and yards in the process. Compared to his positional peers throughout the league, DT was second in receptions and yards, and tied for 10th in touchdowns.
A true size/speed mismatch and maven after the catch, Thomas should remain an elite asset regardless of Manning’s eventual decision. Whether it’s a new deal or the franchise tag, I can’t see any way GM John Elway will let his prized receiver test the waters in his upcoming restricted free agency. Still only 27, and with three consecutive PPR WR1 finishes under his belt, I have Thomas ranked as my dynasty WR4.
Emmanuel Sanders
Though the Steelers are doing just fine with the previously mentioned Brown leading the charge, it’s tough to argue against the point they clearly didn’t know what they had in the dynamic Sanders. Taking over the “Eric Decker role,” Sanders blew by the former Bronco’s 2012/2013 numbers, easily besting him in receptions and receiving yards while chipping in a career high nine touchdowns. This resulted in a finish as the PPR WR5, and an efficiency that actually bested that of his more ballyhooed teammate Thomas (2.13 PPR PPT versus 1.84 PPR PPT for DT). Continuing, he showed an ability to get open at will, dropping seven 100-yard performances in the season’s first 11 games and achieving at least five receptions in all but four contests. They “Peyton Bump” is a very real thing (just ask Decker), but I believe Sanders easily surpassed the expectations of nearly every fantasy pundit – I have him ranked as my dynasty WR19, a stature that might even be too low.
Wes Welker
One year after catching a career-high 10 touchdowns, Welker fell back to earth in a disappointing campaign that saw the former slot machine targeted only 4.6 times per game. On the year he only surpassed 60 receiving yards twice, and was held to four or fewer receptions a whopping 11 times. Given his declining play, concussion history and the likelihood he won’t be back in Denver I think it’s fair to consider outright dropping the diminutive pass catcher from your fantasy roster – I don’t have him ranked amongst my top-100 dynasty receivers.
Andre Caldwell
The wildly inefficient receiver is theoretically under contract for one more year, but isn’t worthy of a dynasty roster spot.
Cody Latimer
Essentially “redshirted” as a rookie, the 2014 second-round pick appears likely to slot in as the offense’s WR3 in 2015. While he didn’t show anything on the field as a freshman, the young receiver boasts plus size and athleticism, and displayed incremental improvement in college on a mediocre Indiana offense. Essentially based on potential and perceived opportunity I have Latimer ranked as my dynasty WR48.
Tight Ends
Julius Thomas
Following a 2013 breakout where the relatively unknown fantasy entity finished as the PPR TE2, Thomas took a step back in 2014 largely due to an inability to stay on the field. After a fast start that saw the athletic tight end score nine times in the first five games, “the other Thomas” only surpassed 40 yards once in his final eight contests, while missing nearly a month due to an ankle injury. The latter point is indicative of a career-long trend, as Thomas has now effectively lost an entire season’s worth of games over the course of the past three years. While I don’t believe Thomas is a total byproduct of Manning, it’s nearly impossible to assert he’ll sustain his current rate of scoring (24 touchdowns in his last 27 games) should he test free agency following his contract year. As Denver still needs to re-sign Demaryius Thomas, however, I believe this outcome has become increasingly likely – as such I have JT ranked as my dynasty TE5, with room for fluctuation.
Jacob Tamme
After following Manning from the Colts, Tamme was expected to emerge as the next Dallas Clark. This clearly hasn’t come to fruition, as Tamme’s targets, receptions and yards have dipped successively since signing with Denver in 2012. As a soon-to-be 30-year old free agent, Tamme has no dynasty value.
Virgil Green
The sparsely used tight end remains an athletic freak and theoretical mismatch who has never been able to put it together on the field. As a 2015 free agent, it’s a tough sell to believe a fifth-year breakout will occur should he sign elsewhere. I don’t have Green ranked amongst my top-50 tight ends.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much Should You Factor in Off-Field Issues? - April 9, 2024
