What if? Rookie Mock Draft

Ryan McDowell Posted On February 9, 2015

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With the 2014 NFL season now complete, it’s officially Draft Season. Over the next few months, mock drafts will be as plentiful as snowflakes in the northeast. One of my favorites is the recurring full seven rounder compiled by Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, who just released his first marathon mock.

As I did a year ago, I will use this mock to create my own mock- a two round dynasty rookie mock, based on the assumption that Matt will nail every one of his picks. Obviously that won’t happen, but part of the off-season is speculating about a player’s value depending on where he lands in the draft.

Remember, all picks are simply predictions by Matt, based on the most recent news and team needs.

Round 1

1.01 Todd Gurley, RB BAL (Round 1, Pick 26)

Despite the season ending knee injury Gurley suffered, he’s still the top running back off the board and deservedly so. Not only has Gurley been viewed as the most skilled back in college for the past two seasons, he’s also significantly younger than every other draft eligible runner in this class. His young age (he turns 21 just before the 2015 season begins) gives dynasty owners and NFL teams the flexibility to wait on the bruising Bulldog.

The Ravens’ running game was a disaster in 2014, though Justin Forsett did his best to save them. Unfortunately, Forsett has no real dynasty or NFL value going forward. Despite what he did on the field this past season, I doubt the Ravens or any other team will view him as a starting running back. Gurley could fill a need for Baltimore for the next few years going forward, though there’s almost no landing spot that would push Gurley out of this spot.

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1.02 Amari Cooper, WR MIN (Round 1, Pick 12)

Projecting wide receiver DeVante Parker to Minnesota (where he’d be reunited with college teammate Teddy Bridgewater) has been a popular early choice among mock drafters, but Matt has another top receiver in Cooper landing with the Vikings. Cooper is viewed by most as the top prospect at his position, though the popular opinion also states he’s not quite at the level of other top wide receiver prospects, including last year’s Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins.

The Vikings are in an interesting spot when it comes to the wideout position. Bridgewater struggled through much of the early portion of his rookie season, but really began to blossom when the team added metrics favorite Charles Johnson, who had already failed to stick with the Packers and Browns. Johnson was everything we thought Cordarrelle Patterson would be and lived up to his hype from the previous year. Still, Johnson is no sure thing and Patterson certainly isn’t, either. The team also has veteran Greg Jennings on their current roster, though it’s not clear if he will stick around. All of this tells us adding a playmaker at wide receiver (especially one as talented as Cooper) would fill a huge need.

1.03 Melvin Gordon, RB SEA (Round 1, Pick 31)

This pick is a difficult one to figure. I have to assume Matt penciled this one in under the assumption the Seahawks would rid themselves of starting running back Marshawn Lynch. Recent reports say not only will that not happen, but the team is considering extending Lynch’s deal. There’s also the current running back depth on Seattle’s roster, namely the reliable Robert Turbin and the dynasty darling, Christine Michael. This pick would destroy the value of both, along with the dreams of many that Michael will someday be the every down back for the run-heavy Seahawks.

If this pick is made after the team has already released Lynch, it puts Gordon in contention to be the top player off the board in rookie drafts, even ahead of Gurley. There are simply so many unknowns regarding this situation that I’ll plug Gordon in here for now, which I think is his floor in most rookie drafts.

1.04 DeVante Parker, WR CLE (Round 1, Pick 12)

In early mock drafts, there has been a clear top tier with four players, which has included Parker, the top receiver from Louisville. Parker had a breakout junior year with Bridgewater before suffering an injury that kept him out of action for much of his final college season. When he did return, he wasted no time in dominating the Cardinals’ targets and receiving touchdowns.

If at all possible, I’m avoiding all Cleveland Browns after the disastrous past couple of years. With that said, any team with Andrew Hawkins as their top receiver clearly needs help. Parker (or any other highly drafted rookie receiver) could see targets in spades in the Browns’ offense.

1.05 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR CAR (Round 2, Pick 25)

As I mentioned, the consensus right now seems to be a top tier of four players, with a smaller next tier of a pair of wide receivers, one of those being troubled from Missouri Tiger and Oklahoma Sooner Dorial Green-Beckham. Based on his play on the field and his ideal size for a dominant wide receiver, Green-Beckham would be my top overall player in this class, except for the huge rad flag that is his off field issues. While at Missouri, Green-Beckham was twice cited for possession of marijuana and was ultimately dismissed from the team after a domestic issue involving a teenage girl. He landed at Oklahoma, but never played a down for the Sooners.

Green-Beckham will be an interesting prospect to follow over the next few months. I’m not alone in falling for his skills on the field, but we’ve all seen the downfall of Josh Gordon and fair or not, that will affect Green-Beckham’s value in dynasty leagues, and possibly the NFL as well.

If he’s deemed worthy of a day two pick and can play opposite Kelvin Benjamin that would go a long way towards reviving his dynasty value. In fact, some dynasty owners would likely be willing to take him ahead of Parker and even Cooper if this scenario played out.

1.06 Kevin White, WR OAK (Round 1, Pick 4)

I am not a huge fan of former West Virginia wide receiver White, but he’s routinely being drafted among the top six players in early rookie mock drafts. Being chosen as the first receiver off the board would be a plus, but being chosen by the Raiders is not ideal. It’s unfortunate, but the Raiders have a terrible track record over the past few years for acquiring and developing offensive talent. I’ve often said situation doesn’t matter for rookie wide receivers, but I would use it as a tiebreaker. Green-Beckham being paired with Cam Newton and White landing in Oakland pushes him down a spot from where he has often been drafted in early mocks.

1.07 Jaelen Strong, WR SF (Round 1, Pick 15)

I see this as the first major tier drop, and while there is plenty of time for player value to change, this means situation plays a larger part is who is chosen at each pick. Strong is already my favorite player in this tier and if he were to be selected among the top 15 players in the NFL Draft, not to mention by a wide receiver needy team like the 49ers, I expect he’d become the trendy pick in the middle of the first round. It would not surprise anyone if both Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree were with another team in 2015, leaving the ageless Anquan Boldin and not much else for Colin Kaepernick to target in the passing game.

1.08 Devin Funchess, WR KC (Round 1, Pick 18)

Nearly everything said about Strong would also apply to former Michigan wide receiver and tight end Funchess. Can you name the Chiefs’ top three receivers? Trust me, you don’t want to know. This leads to opportunity and targets for the rookie, who could use as much experience as possible. There is some concern Funchess has bad hands and lacks the focus needed to succeed at the NFL level. After an impressive first two seasons at Ann Arbor, he had a down junior season, though that is true of all of the Wolverines this past season. As a top 20 picks, Funchess would warrant this range of pick.

1.09 Duke Johnson, RB IND (Round 2, Pick 29)

We’ve all heard about the depth and quality of this group of running backs for what seems like years and years and this is where the depth starts to play out. After the top two of Gurley and Gordon, I see the group of three backs grouped very tightly. It seems the participants in Scott Fish’s Rookie Mock series would agree. In fact, there’s even a fourth back grouped closely in there.

As I said, landing spot and these players’ new teams will go a long way in determining their draft value. Indianapolis might be one of the best situations a back could be drafted into, considering they are likely to move on from bust Trent Richardson and, while he performed well in 2014, Dan Herron is not the long-term answer. Grabbing a playmaker like Johnson in the second round would greatly aid his value. In fact, Johnson with the ninth pick in this situation is probably too low. I could easily see a running back needy team in most leagues grabbing him even earlier.

1.10 Maxx Williams, TE JAX (Round 2, Pick 4)

One of the most popular players over recent weeks, seemingly gaining value as draft season begins, is Minnesota tight end Maxx Williams. Already drawing comparisons to some of the most athletic tight ends in the league, Williams has gone from third rounder to late first rounder in our mock draft series, as Scott noted in the above linked article.

Personally, I’m uneasy about drafting any tight end in the first round following another reminder of the length of time it usually takes these players to develop. With a trio of highly ranked tight ends in 2014, many spent first round picks on Eric Ebron, while Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jace Amaro were coming off the board in the second round of most drafts. We saw almost nothing from any of the three and their value has taken a hit as a result. I also think back to a series of Twitter polls I conducted several weeks ago. When asked how many tight ends are worth a random first round pick, the most popular answer was just one, Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski. So, unless you already consider Williams the TE2 in dynasty, it’s probably a better option to try to buy him after his rookie season rather than spending a first rounder on him.

1.11 Tevin Coleman, RB NE (Round 2, Pick 32)

Here is another one of those second tier running backs, for Indiana Hoosier Coleman, a tall upright runner who has drawn comparisons to Darren McFadden. While this may not thrill you, Coleman could get some early work in New England, with both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley entering free agency. We all know it can be dangerous to put faith into the Bill Belichick running game (remember Jonas Gray?), he has shown that he will use any and everyone as long as they earn the playing time. Pairing the equity spent along with the presumed departure of Ridley and Vereen and Coleman is a solid pick late in the first round.

1.12 Jay Ajayi, RB DET (Round 3, Pick 24)

Boise State runner Jay Ajayi is the third in the group of closely ranked backs. A powerful runner who showed during his junior year that he can also play a vital role in the passing game, Ajayi would be a huge addition to the Lions’ offense. Both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are still under contract through the 2017 season, but there is almost no chance both players see the end of those deals. Ajayi would actually be a really nice complement to Theo Riddick, whom the Lions seem to like a lot.

Next time, I’ll have the second round of the dynasty rookie draft based on Matt Miller’s seven round mock.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.