2QB Leagues: Good Buys and Goodbyes
Finding a ‘sleeper’ at quarterback is more difficult than any other position. All 32 starters are under the spotlight, meaning a backup or youngster can’t gradually sneak in extra snaps like players at other positions can: it is all or nothing. Because of that, every starting quarterback is owned in a 2QB league, and it is a tough task to find a waiver wire contributor who lasts for more than a few games. As I have argued before, I believe that investing heavily at quarterback is the way to go taking into account their long careers and the amount of combined points two studs will score. However, once any quarterback is a starter or shows some promise, their value will skyrocket in your two quarterback league; especially if they are young. Acquiring these players is essential even if you have a solid quarterback pairing, as they become great bargaining chips.
In the latest Weekly Mailbag, Eric Hardter discussed some potential veteran quarterback options, and I would encourage owners to buy reliable and undervalued veterans whenever possible. Eight of the top 12 quarterbacks this season were over 30 years old, and I expect the majority of them to be able to repeat it in the next few years. However, Ken Kelly’s ‘Grading the 2014 Waiver Wire’ outlined the mass of contributors that were relative unknowns last summer; and it is every owner’s task to find some more of those gems this year. Here, we take a look at some quarterbacks outside the top players and consider whether or not they are worth an investment.
Blake Bortles, JAX (January ADP: QB16, Age: 23)
It could be argued Bortles made great strides in his rookie season, throwing only four interceptions in his second seven games compared to 13 in his first seven. However, in that same second half of the season he only threw four touchdowns (eight in the first half) and averaged 182 pass yards per game (233 in the first half). Rookie seasons don’t define a career, and we can expect an increase in production at some point in his sophomore year (with Allen Robinson and a healthy buy-low target in Marqise Lee), but I do not see him as a fantasy game-winner. I would attempt to use his ‘potential’ to switch him out for a veteran starter. Verdict: Goodbye
Robert Griffin III, WAS (QB19, Age: 24)
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Outside the ‘elite’ fantasy players, point totals per season are a series of ups and downs. There is no doubt Griffin’s 2014 was a down year. But as well as being a series of up and downs, dynasty football is also about ‘reacting to reactions.’ Griffin may have played so badly that he “needs Quarterbacking 101,” so it is fair to drop him down our rankings. But just as we may have overreacted to his rookie season, some owners may have overreacted from his slow recovery from injury and disappointing fantasy output in the last two. Is Griffin a flawed passer? Yes. Is he going to disappear into the depths and never play at a starting fantasy quarterback level again? I do not believe so. I think Griffin can be a starter again with weekly upside. Verdict: Good Buy
Zach Mettenberger, TEN (QB25, Age: 23)
He didn’t set the world on fire, but I believe he did well as a rookie. He is a difficult player to rank because of future hinges on whether or not the Titans draft a signal-caller in May or acquire a veteran through free agency or a trade. I actually believe the Titans will go with the latter, and simply bring in someone to challenge the 23-year old while spending the pick on helping the rest of the team. Our Eric Olinger featured Mettenberger in a Dynasty Spotlight in August, urging you to go out and get him. I feel the same way. Verdict: Good Buy
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE (QB26, Age: 23)
Similarly to another player on this list (Brock Osweiler), Garoppolo is one of the ’groomed behind a great’ youngsters who are difficult to handle in dynasty football. You know that they won’t score points because they are on the bench indefinitely, so you had better be patient. However, based on talent alone; I am a Jimmy fan and of all the players who have sat behind the great Tom Brady (and eventually been traded), I believe he may have the best chance to be a viable NFL starter. But the timing isn’t right, as two or more years of sitting on the Patriots bench (as well as yours) doesn’t help anyone. Verdict: Goodbye
Geno Smith, NYJ (QB28, Age: 24)
As Jarrett Behar and Karl Safchick discussed on the DLF Dynasty Podcast, new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey may be the man to spring some of the Jets playmakers (Percy Harvin, Eric Decker and Jace Amaro) into fantasy relevance, and Smith may be a beneficiary. A second chance with a new coach is exactly what he needs, but we don’t yet know what direction new Head Coach Todd Bowles will go with the position. I think he might be the best option the team has heading into 2015, so I am willing to give Geno another go. Verdict: Good Buy
EJ Manuel, BUF (QB30, Age: 24)
Right now, Manuel is Buffalo’s only option. However, we all know that is going to change in between now and September. Simply the fact he is teetering around the top 32 quarterbacks in ADP means he is overvalued. If you can move him for anything at all to a QB-desperate owner, do it. In Evan Silva’s rundown of free agents over at Rotoworld, he outlines a long list of available quarterbacks. I believe many of them could beat Manuel for the job if acquired (Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker and Brian Hoyer lead the rankings) so Rex Ryan may go in that direction. Verdict: Goodbye
Brock Osweiler, DEN (QB31, Age: 24)
There is no denying Peyton Manning may be near the end. At 38 years old, and after slump in the second half of the season, we have to genuinely question whether he will come back at all next year. Graham Barfield at NumberFire actually pointed out that Manning may have had a bad season compared to what he usually produces, but it was still a good season compared to everyone else and I expect a return in 2015. If not, Osweiler will take over after three years of waiting in the wings. He will hold some value as a starting quarterback, but the drop off from Manning’s production will be huge. Disappointment looms. Verdict: Goodbye
Logan Thomas, ARI (QB33, Age: 22)
‘Unknowns’ are sometimes better than known commodities, especially when you only use a third or fourth quarterback roster spot on them. Whereas we have seen enough of some of the players ahead of Thomas to be able to move on, it is often hard to give up on a young player with potential before we’ve even seen them given a shot. However, my pre-draft issue with Thomas is that his physical talent gets us far more excited than what’s between the ears, and I have a hard time seeing him as a successful passer in the NFL. I would look elsewhere. Verdict: Goodbye
Mike Glennon, TB (QB34, Age: 25)
As a fantasy quarterback in 2014, Glennon did a pretty good job; scoring 20+ points in four of his six games. However, those performances weren’t good enough for him to hold the starting job over Josh McCown and won’t be enough to prevent the Buccaneers from starting over with a new quarterback in the 2015 Draft. A bunch of quarterback-needy teams combined with slim pickings after the top two incoming draftees might make Glennon the subject of enquiries from other teams around the league, so we may see his stock rise. However, I can’t see him holding down a long-term starting position and would not invest. Verdict: Goodbye
Long Shots
Assuming all of the players above will already be on a roster in your 2QB dynasty league, you must continue to scour the free agent pool for players who might have a chance to play in the near future. These four may just have a shot due to situation and timing.
Tom Savage, HOU (QB39, Age: 24), Ryan Mallett, HOU (Unranked, Age: 26)
Both of these players will most likely be afforded the chance to compete for the Texans starting job in 2015, and I believe Bill O’Brien will go with Mallett. His 2014 season came to an early end, but I think Houston gives him another long look next year. While Savage has a nice arm, the former Patriot has more chance to play and looks to be cheap to acquire.
Aaron Murray, KC (Unranked, Age: 24)
Andy Reid has a history of turning backups into hot commodities with his QB-friendly offense (think A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb), and while Alex Smith is coming off his two best fantasy seasons, we shouldn’t forget that he has only thrown more than 18 touchdowns in one of his ten years in the league. He is reliably average, but Reid may decide to give someone else a go.
David Fales, CHI (Unranked, Age: 24)
The 2QB guru himself Sal Stefanile profiled Fales over at XN Sports when Jay Cutler was first dropped. He isn’t physically gifted by any means, but he’s smart and creative on the field. While I expect Cutler to hold down the starting job, he is clearly prone to the odd breakdown and Fales may see some time.
Foresight and anticipation are clearly key elements in prolonged dynasty success. You will know from experience that making a move right now could be the difference between a Championship and a runners-up trophy at the end of the 2015 season. Even something as simple as a player pickup at the end of your roster could give you those ten extra points you need in a game, or provide that one extra piece in a trade that leads to success. There will be moves you made last year (and even longer ago) that still haunt you now (for example, I dropped CJ Anderson this time last year in one league after holding him through 2013, but stumbled in the semi-finals this season due to a lack of production from my running backs), but the best way to approach those disappointments is to learn from them and use them to your advantage in the future.
Keep scanning, keep researching and keep active.
Who do you like as a breakout quarterback in 2015? Who do you think will underperform? Let’s talk QBs @JS_Football
[/am4show]
As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
- 2022 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh - January 31, 2022
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Quez Watkins, WR PHI - July 15, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: John Hightower, WR PHI - July 7, 2020
